Is It Legit? The Tale of Pete Crow-Armstrong's Two Halves

We have long known about Pete Crow-Armstrong’s elite centerfield defense, but in 2025, the bat came alive as well. Crow-Armstrong posted an elite 5.4 fWAR and hit 31 home runs while stealing 35 bases. While the season-long numbers were highly impressive, things fell off hard, and PCA struggled throughout the postseason as well.

Which version of PCA is legit? Is there a middle ground between the two halves? How should we value PCA for 2026 and in dynasty leagues? Let’s dive into what the numbers say.

Check out Kristian Campbell’s Breakdown here:

Pete Crow-Armstrong Breakdown: Who is the Real PCA?

The Numbers: Pete Crow-Armstrong Edition

As we mentioned in the intro, PCA joined the 30-30 club this season. By season's end, he ranked 22nd on the Razzball Player Rater when you factor in the standard 5×5 scoring with batting average, runs, RBI, home runs, and stolen bases. Crow-Armstrong blasted 31 home runs while adding 37 doubles and three triples. He swiped 35 bases and was caught just eight times.

Crow-Armstrong’s strikeout rate of 24 percent was manageable, but his OBP and walk rate were nearly atrocious. Among qualified hitters, PCA’s walk rate of 4.5 percent was the fifth lowest in baseball, and the .287 OBP was 11th lowest.

He lowered the ground ball rate substantially from 2024 to 2025, checking in with a 31.3 percent ground ball rate and a 49.7 percent fly ball rate. The BABIP of .276 was actually relatively low, likely due to the ground ball rate decreasing and more fly balls resulting in more outs.

The Drastic Splits

The splits were the most significant issue. Through the end of July, PCA had a .272/.309/.559 slash with 27 home runs and 29 stolen bases. The strikeout rate sat at 23.3 percent across those 447 plate appearances. His final 200 plate appearances were rough, though, as he hit just four home runs and stole six bases while slashing .188/.237/.295.

What changed in August?

First, I see a drop in swing rate. While the chase rate falling is a good thing, I also see a drop in zone-swing percentage. To chase at a 45 percent clip through the first four months of the season and put up the numbers PCA did is crazy, but it is part of his identity. He swings at a ton of pitches in the zone and does not let a mistake pitch go by over the heart of the plate.

Over the final two months, PCA’s chase rate sat at just 35.6 percent, and the zone-swing rate fell as low as a 72 percent rolling rate in August, compared to a near 80 percent zone-swing rate during the first four months.

The barrel rate was the other notable difference, largely due to launch angles. Through the end of July, Crow-Armstrong ran an impressive 14.4 percent barre rate and a 42 percent hard-hit rate. While the average exit velocity and higher-end exit velocities were higher in August and September, the barrel rate fell below ten percent. Why?

While the sweet spot rate was north of 37 percent in the first four months, it fell to just 31 percent in August and September. He seemed to be making a conscious effort to sell out for the pull-side more often, as the number rose to 58 percent, and the air pull percentage increased to 29 percent. So it seems that in an effort to pull the ball in the air more, he actively hurt his launch profile, especially by being more selective on the pitches he swung at.

Another issue surrounds PCA’s ability to hit left-handed pitching. He posted a .188/.217/.376 slash against lefties versus a .271/.315/.523 slash against righties. The strikeout rate approached 30 percent versus left-handed pitching, and he had just a 59 wRC+.

Checkin’ Under the Hood: Pete Crow-Armstrong

While we have already examined some statcast data in the splits section, let’s look at what Crow-Armstrong did for the entire season. The 13 percent barrel rate was probably his best attribute, ranking 82nd percent among all MLB hitters. PCA checked in with a 42 percent hard-hit rate and a 34 percent sweet-spot rate, both landing below average. This shows that Crow-Armstrong has a great feel for the barrel and creates barrels despite not hitting the ball overly hard consistently.

PCA’s bat speed is above-average at 72.7 mph, and it was a notable jump of two mph. This year, we also saw Crow-Armstrong be two inches deeper in the box, but his intercept point was two inches further in front of the plate. What this means is that PCA is doing a much better job at catching the ball out in front, and he is naturally going to get it in the air and pull the ball more often.

The .421 xwOBACON was a major jump from the .343 mark he posted in 2024. If you like looking at expected stats, you will find that Crow-Armstrong actually underperformed. The .255 xBA was a few ticks above his .247 actual, and the .496 xSLG was north of his .481 slugging percentage.

From a contact perspective, PCA put up an 82 percent zone-contact rate, a seven percentage point jump from 2023. The overall contact rate of 71 percent was in line with last season's numbers, largely due to the amount of swings out of the zone and the low chase contact.

We know that Crow-Armstrong is hyper-aggressive, and the chase rate is quite high. Where PCA does excel, though, is a zone-swing rate that is 13 percentage points higher than league average and a meatball swing rate of 86 percent. While he does swing often, he feasts on pitches that are left in the zone.

Pete Crow-Armstrong’s 2025 Verdict and Future Outlook

I am buying what Crow-Armstrong did in 2025. Sure, there was a sharp decline in production over the final two months, but it is worth noting that PCA finished the year strong. Over his final 50 plate appearances, Crow-Armstrong hit three home runs and slashed .261/.265/.500. Is it a perfect profile? No.

There are still things that need to be cleaned up, including the amount of chase out of the zone. If PCA can keep the chase rate in the 35-38 percent range that we saw down the stretch, it could be huge for him moving forward. The aggressiveness on pitches in the zone is still very important, so he needs to sustain those swings.

The gain in bat speed supports the power surge, as does the improved point of contact. Crow-Armstrong is going to get the ball in the air and to the pull-side often. I also buy the gains in in-zone contact rates.

Was 2025 a peak season? Maybe. Will PCA go 30-30 again? Maybe not. But you can still buy the gains without expecting him to be a first-round fantasy talent. Remember, he is just 23 years old and is likely to find still ways to improve his game.

In 2026, I think you can expect PCA to steal 30 bases again. That feels like a lock given his elite sprint speed and his consistency on the base paths. If he hits 25 home runs next season, I would count it as a success. If there is an improved chase rate, the OBP should trend upward, as should the batting average.

If you can buy low off his final two-month decline, I would. I am not sure there will be too much of a discount, though, and I still expect PCA to have a top 30 ADP for redraft leagues in 2026.