Is It Legit? Can Kristian Campbell Return to 2024 Form?

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As I work on my team-by-team top 30 prospect reports, I will start a new mini-series in between. As the team reports take some time to knock out, there is a need for some content in between. So, I figured a good solution would be breaking down MLB players that may be hard to rank.

These players might be recently graduated prospects who struggled. A former star or a random breakout. Are the performances legit, and what can we expect moving forward for 2026 and for dynasty leagues?

Check out Jeremy Pena’s Breakdown Here:

Kristian Campbell received a long-term extension that runs through 2032 with options to go through 2034 before the season. He naturally made the Opening Day roster and looked good for a little while. But Campbell wound up spending the final three months of the season with Triple-A Worcester and had his last MLB plate appearance on June 18, 2025.

Kristian Campbell Breakdown: Who is the Real Campbell?

The Numbers: Kristian Campbell Edition

In a 263 plate appearance MLB sample, Campbell hit six home runs and swiped two bags while slashing a modest .223/.329/.345. He struck out in 27.4 percent of plate appearances, but did show a solid approach, walking at an 11 percent clip. How bad did it get, though?

Through Campbell’s first 119 plate appearances, he looked the part and appeared to be sticking long-term. Four of his home runs came over that span, with eight doubles to add to the stat sheet. Campbell was walking at a 16 percent clip and has a slash of .313/.420/.515. It appeared that Campbell would make a run at AL Rookie of the Year alongside Jacob Wilson.

Then, things began to go downhill fast. Over the subsequent 144 plate appearances, Campbell managed just four extra-base hits, and he slashed .154/.236/.215. The wRC+ of 26 over that span goes to show what the performance was like as he struck out in 29.2 percent of plate appearances.

This led to the demotion to Triple-A, where Campbell hung out the rest of the year. The start of his time in Triple-A did not go great either, as Campbell hit just one home run, struck out in 34 percent of plate appearances, and slashed .186/.352/.300 in his first 88 plate appearances.

After the All-Star break, Campbell did show improvements and finished the season strong. He cut the strikeout rate to 23.4 percent in his final 231 plate appearances and slashed .303/.394/.458 with seven home runs and 16 extra base hits.

That was a lot of numbers and information, so let's break down Campbell a little deeper.

Checkin’ Under the Hood: Kristian Campbell

Let’s start on the MLB side of things. What really caused Campbell to struggle? Starting with contact, Campbell was below-average with a 73 percent overall contact rate and an 80 percent in-zone mark, but those numbers are not that bad. The approach was relatively solid as he chased just 23 percent of pitches out of the zone, but Campbell will need to be more aggressive on pitches in the zone as his swing rate there was seven percentage points below league average.

Campbell did hit the ball hard on the high-end, having a 112.2 mph max exit velocity and a near 105 mph 90th percentile exit velocity—both respectable marks. Given those numbers, paired with a 42 percent hard-hit rate, you might expect a higher barrel rate than five percent. The lack of in-game power stems from launch angles, as Campbell had a below-average 30 percent sweet-spot rate and a near 55 percent ground ball rate.

Fastballs did not give Campbell issues as he ran an 82 percent contact rate on those pitch types with a .262 batting average and a .423 slugging percentage. Against breaking balls, the contact rate fell to just 64 percent, and Campbell hit .176 against those pitch types. Offspeed pitches were even worse; a 55 percent contact rate and a .160 batting average.

Even in Triple-A, Campbell still struggled to lift. The ground ball rate did drop to 52 percent, but that is still a major issue and a far cry from the 43 percent he posted during his breakout 2024 season. A large part of this comes from his swing. Look at the drastic changes. This first video was from 2023, right after he was drafted and assigned to Greenville.

Triple-A video on the right via Ian Cundall of SoxProspects

Campbell underwent a swing change after the video on the left. He added bat speed and began to lift the ball in 2024, leading to the breakout. I will post a 2024 video below. The swing at the end of the 2025 season feels like he is back in a similar place to hit that he was in 2023. He just had no leverage in the swing compared to the video below.

Given the numbers and the fact that his barrel rate was even lower in Triple-A than the Majors, it signifies he needs to go back to he drawing board and find the 2024 swing again. No matter how hard you hit or how much contact you make, when you are in the position Campbell was in to end 2025, you won’t make a ton of quality contact.

As you can see in the image below, Campbell really struggled to get the ball in the air to the pull-side. Those things can change, because we saw him do it with ease in 2024. It is just finding his groove again in his swing.

Kristian Campbell’s 2025 Verdict and Future Outlook

It is hard to say that Campbell’s 2024 season was a fluke. Hitting 20 home runs with 24 stolen bases and a .330/.439/.558 slash is hard to maintain over a full season if it were fluky. The swing change was tangible, and the results followed.

The power gains were real in 2024, as Campbell posted a 90th-percentile exit velocity of around 106 mph. He hit home runs as far as 450 feet with exit velocities north of 113 mph. The swing change allowed the launch angles to improve and get him to the power in-game.

Campbell just turned 23 years old and likely has a bright future ahead of him. This offseason, he is likely working on his swing and getting back to the place he needs to be at the point of impact. As the offseason wears on, it is something we will definetly be keeping our ears open for.

Given the extension the Red Sox gave Campbell, they will give him every chance to succeed at the MLB level. Right now, second base is wide open for 2026. Could the Red Sox go sign someone? Sure. But it does not make sense when you have Campbell.

What I can tell you is Campbell works as hard as anyone, based on what I saw in his time in Greenville. I expect him to put in the work this offseason, both on his swing and mentally, to get to the place he needs to be to excel in the Majors.

What can we expect from Campbell in 2026 and beyond? If he spends a full season in Boston next year, there are likely a wide range of outcomes, but a 15-home run season with 10-15 stolen bases feels reasonable. The slash line could look something like .260/.340/.425. Long-term, I would expect Campbell to reach 20 home runs in multiple seasons.

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