Is It Legit? Is Brandon Pfaadt Fantasy Viable?

Brandon Pfaadt has felt like he was on the cusp of breaking out multiple times in his career, but it seems like it has been a downward spiral the last few years. Pfaadt rose up prospect rankings after a strong performance in the minors in 2021, and then he dominated in 2022, tossing a Minor League best 167 innings and 218 strikeouts. The excitement built as Pfaadt posted a 3.83 ERA in two-hitter-friendly environments and showed elite command.

The following season, Pfaadt continued to pitch well in Triple-A, and people clamored for a call-up for months. It finally happened, but the results were not what many had hoped, as the home runs bit him hard.

In his MLB career, Pfaadt owns a 5.13 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP, and in 2025, things got worse. The positives are that Pfaadt has been an innings eater, but those innings haven't helped your fantasy teams. The strikeout rate fell below 20 percent, but the positive is control, as he walked a career best 4.8 percent of batters.

Who is Pfaadt, and is he fantasy viable? Let’s dive in.

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Can Brandon Pfaadt be a Fantasy Relevant Starter?

The Numbers: Brandon Pfaadt Edition

From a fantasy perspective, Pfaadt finished last season as the 83rd-best starting pitcher and 144th overall when you factor in relievers. This likely has to do with innings more so than results. We mentioned that Pfaadt posted a 5.25 ERA, which is certainly a drain on most teams ’ ratios. The 1.33 WHIP did not help either. Unless you play in a league where innings matter a ton, Pfaadt likely was not very valuable.

After striking out 24.3 percent of batters in 2024, the number fell to 19.2 percent in 2025. The positive is that the walk rate also fell to 4.8 percent. In the process, Pfaadt’s fWAR Fell from 3.1 to 1.7.

Plenty of the other surface numbers were in line with what we have seen from his entire career. The .316 BABIP was identical to his career mark, and the strand rate of 66.5 percent was also similar to his career mark.

Did anything change in the profile, and how can Pfaadt bounce back?

Checkin’ Under the Hood: Brandon Pfaadt

The first thing I like to look at with pitchers under the hood is how SIERA and FIP look. SIERA estimates a pitcher’s ERA by evaluating the quality of contact on batted balls and is usually a good predictor of future success. FIP evaluates the performance based on only things a pitcher can control, like strikeouts, walks, home runs, and hit-by-pitches.

The good news is Pfaadt’s SIERA checked in at 4.12 and the FIP at 4.22, both a full run lower than his ERA. But does that matter? In 2024, Pfaadt posted a 3.65 SIERA and 3.61 FIP while having a 4.71 ERA. Looking at Pfaadt’s xERA might be helpful as it includes statcast data.

The contact numbers are a bit concerning, as Pfaadt allowed an 89 percent in-zone contact rate, which is well above the MLB average. The overall contact rate of 81 percent was also about five percentage points higher than the league average.

The xERA checked in at 5.38 largely due to his poor 90.8 mph average exit velocity and 10.9 percent barrel rate, both 10th percentile among hitters. Part of the problem here is the fastballs. The average exit velocity allowed on both Pfaadt’s four-seam and sinker checked in at 94.2 mph, with hard-hit rates allowed of 55.6 and 58 percent, respectively. The barrel rate allowed on his four-seam was an atrocious 13 percent.

Funny enough, the Stuff+ on Pfaadt’s fastball actually jumped from 98 to 102 in 2025 as it added some IVB and more arm-side run. Home runs were still an issue, but it was the sweeper that allowed the most. Pfaadt’s four-seam and sinker allowed five home runs apiece. The four-seam is an issue still, but the usage has dropped from 45.3 percent in 2023 to 33.3 percent in 2024, down to 23.4 percent in 2025. Honestly, it might just be time to scrap it.

The decrease in four-seam usage led to more changeups and curveballs, and Pfaadt even added a cutter in 2025. While the curve was effective at missing bats, having a 36.2 percent whiff rate, it was also hit hard, with a .679 slugging percentage against.

The cutter was actually highly effective, and a pitch I think could benefit from a higher usage rate. It induced the weakest contact of any pitch, and though it did not miss bats, it allowed just a .222 batting average against.

The 2026 season could be the fourth straight season we have seen an altered pitch mix, and it could be for the best. Personally, I would love to see Pfaadt go to a sinker, cutter, sweeper as his primary three offerings while also mixing in his curveball and changeup to lefties.

Bradon Pfaadt’s 2025 Verdict and Future Outlook

Looking at the numbers, Pfaadt seems to be who he is at this point. Considering he just turned 27 years old last month, there is still time for him to reinvent his game. The home runs are an issue, but the lack of strikeouts is as well. What the strikeout total looks like in 2026 likely depends on usage. If Pfaadt ditches the four-seamer and uses his sinker 40 percent of the time or more, he likely will live around the 20 percent range.

But, with good sequencing and better two-strike usage, that number could increase. Fifteen of Pfaadt’s 26 home runs allowed were in two-strike counts, and over 50 percent of his pitches thrown in those counts were a fastball variation. Considering the curveball had a 39 percent whiff rate in two-strike counts, Pfaadt could strike more batters out just by using it more often in those counts.

So, I say all that, and you might be wondering, what does the 2026 outlook look like? The answer is, I am not sure. There are many variables at play here, including his pitch mix, as I mentioned. One thing we know, Pfaadt should be good for plenty of innings, as that has been a constant in his career.

I do believe Pfaadt is a better pitcher than what the surface numbers in 2025 indicated. The ERA should drop to the mid-four range with potential to go lower with better sequencing. Pfaadt should also see his strikeout rate sit somewhere between 22 and 24 percent. The walk rate, control, and command are both strong and should continue to be.

Pfaadt’s early NFBC ADP is 538, which puts him in a range of pitchers like Tyler Wells, Slade Cecconi, Zack Littell, and Chris Bassitt. At the price, Pfaadt is a solid buy for me in redraft. The dynasty value should be cheap enough as well to take a shot.