Is It Legit? Ben Rice's 2025 Breakout Season in the Bronx

A 2021 12th-round pick out of Dartmouth, Rice has quite the story leading up to his MLB success. He was not the traditional dominant college player. Playing hockey growing up, it was not until late in Rice’s high school career that he really blossomed.

Going to Dartmouth to study Psychology, Rice also found a home behind the plate for the baseball team, starting 18 games as a freshman. That was in 2019, and Rice’s 2020 season ended after just seven games. The Ivy League also canceled the 2021 season due to COVID.

Summer Leagues were Rice’s saving grace and led the Yankees to select him in 2021, even though he had played in just 13 games that year on the Cape, where he showed strong skills. The previous summer Rice played in the Futures Collegiate, where he hit 11 home runs in 43 games.

Rice developed quite well through the minors and wound up having an impressive three-WAR season in his first full MLB season. Let’s break it down and see if it is legit?

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Ben Rice’s Breakout Season: Can We Trust the Results?

The Numbers: Ben Rice Edition

Ben Rice was one of the more surprising breakout bats of 2025. He wasn’t a top prospect or expected to be the next great Yankees slugger, but here we are. It did not take long for the Yankees to find a spot for Rice in the lineup every day, and he wound up being one of the best hitters for the Bronx Bombers.

The consistent thing we have seen throughout Rice’s minor league career has been a good feel to hit, strong plate discipline, and the ability to take a walk. The power really came around in 2024 as Rice was in Double-A and Triple-A, but seeing Rice blast 26 home runs in the majors in 2025 was huge.

Rice slashed a strong .255/.337/.499 and added 28 doubles and four triples. The strikeout rate was an impressive 18.9 percent, which was down from 27 percent in his 2024 MLB performance.

Checkin’ Under the Hood: Ben Rice

The expected numbers, coupled with the statcast data, may lead you to see that Rice actually underperformed the actual numbers. Starting with expected numbers, which I don’t quote often, Rice had a .289 xBA and a .551 xSLG, both well above the actual numbers. Rice’s xwOBA of .396 was in the top three percent of all hitters, and his .455 xwOBACON ranked in the 92nd percentile.

This is no surprise when you look at the Savant sliders, which most refer to rather blindly.

What is worth noting is that Rice’s average exit velocity of 93.3 mph and his barrel rate of 15.4 percent are elite. This could be attributed to a two mph gain in bat speed from 2024 to 2025. The fast swing rate jumped by 20 percent, and there are some tangible things as well to note.

Rice changed his stance and was much more open, 21 degrees in fact. The attack direction did not change, nor did the attack angle of his swing, but Rice tapped into ideal angles quite often, having a near 40 percent sweet spot rate.

All this to say, Rice hits the ball extremely hard, as shown by a near 108 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and a 113.5 mph max. Not only does Rice hit the ball hard, but he also has strong bat-to-ball skills and approach. His 86 percent in-zone contact and 79 percent overall rates are both above average, while the chase rate of 21 percent is an impressive mark.

While Rice could swing more on pitches in the zone, the approach is plus or better. Rice picks his spots well and does damage. Factor in his high air pull rates with the short porch in Yankee Stadium, and Rice is going to leave the yard quite often.

While the splits are something to keep an eye on, he was still very effective against left-handed pitchers, having a .752 OPS, but he struck out 27.7 percent of the time. It was still a 104 wRC+, so Rice is gonna play against lefties most days, and he should have a regular spot somewhere in the field.

Ben Rice’s 2025 Verdict and Future Outlook

Rice’s best asset heading into 2026 is the fact that he is carrying over catcher eligibility for fantasy purposes after catching 36 games last season. It will be interesting to watch what the Yankees do this offseason, but Rice is locked in a starting spot. Yankees manager Aaron Boone said that Rice will be the team’s primary first baseman in 2026. But, considering 20 of his starts at catcher came from August forward, it seems like a good chance Rice could continue to catch enough to maintain eligibility for 2027 as well.

With a strong approach and above-average contact skills, Rice seems like a safe bet to continue to hit, and honestly, the slash line will likely be better than what we saw in 2025, just given the quality of contact he makes. Rice could probably see a slight tick back in exit velocity data and still produce barrels at a high clip.

It is important to remember that Rice hit 26 home runs in just 530 plate appearances last year. It was not just a Yankee Stadium thing either, as he hit 14 home runs at home and 12 on the road. If Rice gets a full-season worth of plate appearances, which he should, 30 home runs is more than reasonable. In fact, I will stick my neck out and project Rice to hit 33 next season.

Rice should hit in the heart of a talented Yankees lineup and have plenty of run and RBI opportunities as well. According to the Razzball Player Rater, in 2025, Rice finished as the seventh-best catcher and 96th overall ranked player. I would take the over on both of those in 2026, just given that he should get more plate appearances and have more runs and RBI opportunities.

According to early NFBC ADP, Rice is being drafted on average at pick 74, with a high pick of 55 and a low of 95. The ADP feels fair, especially given how players with catcher eligibility are pushed up in NFBC’s two-catcher format. I would expect the value to be a tad lower in other formats, including dynasty leagues. Regardless, Rice is a solid buy for me.