Zac Beck's Points League Prospect Ranks: Catcher

Zac Beck walks through his prospect rankings for dynasty points leagues.

Zac Beck begins his walk through his positional prospect rankings with the catcher position. Check out the top 15 catchers for dynasty points leagues and whether Beck suggests buying, selling, or holding them in your league.

1. Francisco Álvarez, New York Mets, 21, - 5’10, 233lbs

‘22: 495 PA, .260/.374/.511/.885, 27 HR, 0 SB, 24.8% K, 14.6% BB (AA, AAA)

No stranger to the top of lists – mine, yours, and across the industry – Álvarez sits atop the throne by way of his thunderous bat. During his three year minor league career he has slugged 58 home runs in 1,077 plate appearances. The 27 big flies he tallied this year put him at #5 among all minor league backstops, behind a couple of older gentlemen (Jackson Reetz, Carlos Pèrez) and a couple with a stronger penchant for the punchout (Hunter Goodman, Tyler Soderstrom), none of whom feature the plate discipline Álvarez does.

Like many others to come later in the list, Álvarez is not a lock to stay behind the plate. His frame and defensive deficiencies could push him off the position and he doesn’t feature the athleticism to play many other spots in the field. He may be relegated to a first base or full-time DH role.

Although he’s number one here, the gap is far smaller between each player on this list than an ordinal ranking would suggest. Álvarez is a rather comfortable sell for me.

Recommendation: Sell

2. Endy Rodriguez, Pittsburgh Pirates, 22 - 6’0, 170lbs

‘22: 531 PA, .323/.407/.590/.997, 25 HR, 4 SB, 19.0% K, 11.3% BB (A+, AA, AAA)

It’s my opinion that Endy Rodriguez should have won Minor League Hitter of the Year honors in 2022. He’d put together a strong performance in 2021 at Low-A but not many (if any) evaluators forecasted the storm that was E-Rod last year.

Both Rodriguez and Álvarez are on the precipice of full-time roles in Major League Baseball, both are risks to move off of the position, and both have lit up minor league pitching with regularity. Rodriguez had a better overall line in 2022 What gives? Why is he not unanimously number one?

The difference lies in their ability to continuously and regularly get to their power. Endy’s 25 home runs in 2022 are a bit of a mirage, or alternatively similar to the tightrope walk we see Astros hitters execute to capitalize on the Crawford boxes and inflate home run totals. His 90th percentile exit velocities are dwarfed by those of Álvarez and a vast majority of his hard hit batted ball events happen to the pull-side. Perhaps this is a skill that he can replicate in perpetuity; perhaps it’s a sign that regression looms.

Recommendation: Hold

3. Harry Ford, Seattle Mariners, 19 - 5’10, 200 lbs

‘22: 499 PA, .274/.425/.439/.863, 11 HR, 23 SB, 23.0% K, 17.6% BB (A)

There is perhaps no more risky player cohort than the teenage catcher but Harry Ford appears poised to buck the trend. He’s a phenomenal athlete with a very full shed of tools; most prominently the plate approach (he had the 11th-highest OBP of any player in full season ball, minimum 300 plate appearances), tremendous rotational bat speed, and at least plus ability as a runner.

He is not a lock to stay behind the dish. He’s an iffy defender there, both as a receiver and a thrower, and his athleticism may portend a move to the outfield. You’re not necessarily buying the position eligibility with Ford to begin with, so that move could be a welcome development that increases the ostensible plate appearance expectation.

Recommendation: Hold

4. Logan O’Hoppe, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, 22 - 6’2, 185 lbs

‘22: 447 PA, .283/.416/.544/.961, 26 HR, 7 SB, 16.6% K, 15.7% BB (AA)

Coming to love Logan O’Hoppe was a slow burn, but the more time I spent digging in the more I felt like he really got me. You know?

He is the first player on this list that I whole-heartedly believe will stick at the catcher position. He’s got an exceptional approach – the K and BB rates here don’t feel inflated to me – and more game power than I think evaluators give him credit for largely because he puts the ball in the air at an elevated rate.

He is exactly the kind of player you move up in points formats. If I’m going to invest in minor league catching, I prefer to focus my attention on those knocking on the door of a full-time role. I don’t see Max Stassi as a substantive obstacle to overcome.

Recommendation: Buy

5. Diego Cartaya, Los Angeles Dodgers, 21 - 6’3, 219 lbs

‘22: 445 PA, .254/.389/.503/.892, 22 HR, 1 SB, 26.7% K, 14.2% BB (A, A+)

I like Cartaya quite a bit. At the end of this blurb I’m going to tell you to sell if you can get a return requisite with his perceived value but that has nothing to do with my valuation of him as a player. I’m generally in favor of selling young, hyped catchers and paying up for established ones where necessary.

He hits the ball hard and gets on base a lot. He hammers both fastballs and breaking pitches alike. It was encouraging to see his K rate maintain, and not spike, when he was promoted to Hi-A Great Lakes where he spent the majority of his age 20 season. 

All of that said, we’re seeing outlets rank him very aggressively and I’m not sold that the hit tool will hold up as he’s challenged at Double-A and beyond. The disconnect between the real-life value of a defensively competent backstop and their fantasy appeal is large and you can leverage a top-10 placement by Keith Law, for example, into a favorable fantasy exchange.

Recommendation: Sell

6. Austin Wells, New York Yankees, 23 - 6’2, 220 lbs

‘22: 402 PA, .277/.385/.512/.897, 20 HR, 16 SB, 22.4% K, 13.9% BB (A, A+, AA)

Wells is pretty widely underrated – which is rare for a Yankees prospect – but he belongs smack dab in the middle of this tier. Perhaps folks are fading him because his performance dipped rather substantially in Triple-A (about 70 points lower in batting average and OBP), but I’m OK giving him a grace period for acclimation.

His swing naturally generates loft and he possesses a very discerning eye at the plate. He’s affirmatively a bat-first catcher, and that’s what we like! Even with a move off of position – which, to be clear, has not been promoted by Wells nor the Yankees – I think the bat will play to the tune of 20+ home runs and a solid OBP in short order. Should the opportunity to buy for a reasonable price present itself I would jump at it.

Recommendation: Buy

7. Tyler Soderstrom, Oakland Athletics, 21 - 6’2, 200 lbs

‘22: 556 PA, .267/.324/.501/.825, 29 HR, 4 SB, 26.1% K, 7.2% BB (A+, AA, AAA)

Small sample size alert! Soderstrom’s K-rate jumped to 34% in 38 plate appearances to end the year at Triple-A, something I fear may be a harbinger of struggles to come. His power output is undeniable but the total lack of healthy K/BB splits is concerning and his profile is much less attractive should he be sequestered to a first-base role.

I would capitalize on his consensus value where possible. His proximity and surface-level power are doing a lot of heavy lifting with this ranking and I can see a not-so-distant future where Parada, Naylor, and Rushing leapfrog him.

Recommendation: Sell

8. Kevin Parada, New York Mets, 21 - 6’1, 197 lbs

‘22: 55 PA, .275/.455/.425/.880, 1 HR, 0 SB, 23.6% K, 21.8% BB (Rk, A)

The goggle gladiator is an excellent buy in points formats. His profile is tailor-made for points leagues – he has tremendous power to all fields, he has a sterling approach, and he doesn’t project for the stolen base impact that is so coveted in roto, leading to lower perceived value among those managers who rely on categories-focused lists heavily.

In his final year at Georgia Tech he homered in over 10% of his at-bats (26 bombs in 258 ABs)  while walking nearly as much as he struck out (30BB vs. 32K).

He’s got a bit of an unconventional setup at the dish, keeping his hands high and the bat wrapped over his shoulder pointing nearly straight down and his stance open until the pitcher begins his delivery. A demonstrable leg kick brings him square and the remainder of the swing is quick and quiet.

Recommendation: Buy

9. Bo Naylor, Cleveland Guardians, 22 - 6’0, 205 lbs

‘22: 510 PA, .263/.392/.496/.889, 21 HR, 20 SB, 23.7% K, 16.1% BB (AA, AAA)

After a bumpy start at the Double-A level in 2021, Naylor returned to Akron in the spring of 2022 and put to bed the narrative that the level was too advanced for him. The initial skid opened a window to purchase that I believe hasn’t fully closed. 

He’s proven he can hit for power, limit strikeouts to a reasonable degree, battle for a walk, and provide some speed at a position that generally does not contribute much on the basepaths. That is less important in points formats, but can serve as an eraser for the lost points from punchouts and shouldn’t be entirely overlooked. 

Cleveland has had the lowest offensive production from the catcher position in baseball over the last three seasons. Naylor is ready now, the only impediment to significant playing time is Mike Zunino, and the price tag to acquire in most leagues should be reasonable.

Recommendation: Buy

10.  Dalton Rushing, Los Angeles Dodgers, 21 - 6’1, 220 lbs

‘22: 134 PA, .404/.522/.720/1.263, 8 HR, 1 SB, 16.4% K, 16.4% BB (Rk, A)

The successor to the #1 overall pick in the 2021 draft, Rushing swings a sweet stick of his own. He impressed on the Cape slashing .314/.401/.542 with 6 home runs in 142 plate appearances swinging a wood bat – proving he can produce without the assistance of aluminum – and followed it up with a stellar 2022 season at Louisville.

A lot of folks are buying Rushing because of his professional debut and they aren’t totally wrong to do so. He certainly won’t maintain a 1.262 OPS but he’s a good bet to be a solid hitter as he progresses through the minors. I’ll be keeping a close eye on the strikeout rate as he does so.

Recommendation: Hold

11. Edgar Quero, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, 19 - 5’11, 170 lbs

‘22: 515 PA, .312/.435/.530/.965, 17 HR, 12 SB, 17.7% K, 14.2% BB (A)

I’ve already made it clear that catching prospects whose age starts with the number one make me antsy. Quero’s offensive ability is the sort of pepto bismol that settles the stomach – all he has done to date is hit.

If he begins the 2023 season by continuing the trajectory he established at Low-A there will be a serious buying opportunity. 

Recommendation: Hold

12. Yainer Diaz, Houston Astros, 24 - 6’0, 195 lbs

‘22: 486 PA, .306/.356/.542/.898, 25 HR, 2 SB, 16.3% K, 7.0% BB (AA, AAA)

It’s not really a secret that Martin Maldonado’s offensive game leaves something to be desired. I have a deep and undying love for Machete and his prodigious right cross (if this reference is evading you I’d recommend asking Travis Snider) but even I will admit his offensive output is uninspiring at best. Diaz seems to be on the precipice of uprooting him should the organization decide Maldonado’s defensive and game-calling prowess no longer makes up for the black hole he is with the stick.

Yainer has some thump and could be an above average hitter at the 2. It’s possible he sees some time in the lineup at DH this year. He can be had for pennies on the dollar and it might be worth the cost just to see if he’s successful and move on expeditiously if he isn’t.

Recommendation: Buy

13. Henry Davis, Pittsburgh Pirates, 23 - 6’2, 210 lbs

‘22: 255 PA, .264/.380/.472/.852, 10 HR, 9 SB, 20.0% K, 8.2% BB (Rk, A, A+, AA)

I saw Davis live in the AFL – and was quite excited to do so – but he simply did not live up to the billing. He was stiff, his at-bats were not competitive, and he showcased some holes in the swing, particularly with elevated velocity. 

Do I think he could bounce back from what was a largely injury-riddled 2022 campaign? Yes. Do I think you may be able to get better payoff by selling on name value and draft pedigree now? Yes.

Recommendation: Sell

14. Ethan Salas, San Diego Padres, 16 - 6’2, 185 lbs

‘22: Did not play

There are more unknowns than knowns when it comes to Salas, but that’s not a problem specific to him. I was hesitant to rank him at all because he’s a 16-year-old catching prospect, and I can’t really think of anything riskier, but money talks and there were some promising signs as I did my FYPD research.

First – he’s a big kid. The frame is far from a finished product and he could conceivably add another 30 pounds of muscle. Second – it’s abundantly clear that he’s a fluid athlete. His movement behind the plate was seriously impressive and I genuinely think he was a more technically sound catcher in the film I saw of him as a 14-year-old than I was as a Senior in high school (which may say more about me than it does Salas). It’s possible his final home isn’t at the 2 given the remaining body projection, but his athleticism should enable a move if necessary.

Recommendation: Hold

15. Hunter Goodman, Colorado Rockies, 23 - 6’1, 210 lbs

‘22: 579 PA,  .295/.354/.572/.925, 36 HR, 6 SB, 26.1% K, 6.9% BB (A, A+, AA)

I am not confident that Hunter Goodman is a Major League ballplayer when all is said and done. There should be owners out there enticed by the home run total and the siren’s song that is Coors Field, but I am plugging my ears with gusto. The profile fell apart once he made his debut at more age-appropriate Double-A Hartford. I hope he proves me wrong and can develop a more discerning eye.

Recommendation: Sell