UpperBeck’s 2023 FYPD Ranks for Points Leagues
Happy New Year! How long do we get to say that?
I’ve written up my top 30 FYPD prospects for points leagues as my first piece of 2023. The raw ranks themselves can be found here should you prefer to ingest the ranks without any write-ups. My philosophy on FYPD strategy should shine through here, but to make it very explicit:
Prioritize upside; all FYPD players are risky, make it worth your while
College bats are typically safer than their prep counterparts
High school pitching should be selected only when there is elite upside
International signees are the hardest to evaluate but are relatively inexpensive this year and could present huge returns on investment for patient owners
A reminder on the guiding principles for points leagues – if you’re inclined to disagree with me on a ranking, use one of the following to justify it:
Points formats favor starting pitching – especially volume pitchers
Points formats favor home-run hitting – more so than categories
Points formats favor hitters that limit K’s and maximize walks
Points formats devalue stolen bases
Points formats devalue relief pitching, both saves and holds
Lastly, the stats you’ll find below each player represent any accrued stats in MiLB during the 2022 season. Many players will have N/A values, meaning they did not log any at-bats or innings pitched after they signed. I’ve linked to the most relevant information I could find for each player to make up for gaps in data availability at the professional level.
Druw Jones, OF, ARI (2025)
Did Not Play
Druw Jones will be the #1 pick in the overwhelming majority of FYPDs in categories leagues, and it should be no different in points formats. He’s a unicorn with potential to be plus across the board. I personally have him in a tier of his own.
He has a projectable 6’4" frame with muscle (and room for more). He has elite bat speed and the opportunity to expand on the present 60-grade power. On film, he displays a quiet swing meant to prioritize contact and gap-to-gap line drives. He posted a staggering .570/.675/1.026 slash line in his senior year at Wesleyan High School in Georgia. He has an uncanny combination of floor and ceiling that is unmatched in this class. Did I mention who his dad is?
Jackson Holliday, SS, BAL (2025)
AB: 64 R: 14 H: 19 HR: 1 RBI: 9 SB: 4 AVG: .297 OBP: 489 OPS: .911
Holliday will be a popular option at #1 for the contrarians in your leagues, reminiscent of the Baltimore Orioles, who opted for him over Jones at 1.1 in the 2022 amateur draft.
He slashed .297/.489/.422/.911 in a short stint in Single-A, demonstrating a disciplined approach and promising bat-to-ball ability. The only knock you can make on his debut was the lack of consistent impact — he only tallied one homer through 20 contests — but you can’t expect too much from an 18 year old who is yet to grow into his full frame. For now he employs a moderate leg kick to generate torque and lift, but we could see that dissipate as he matures.
He’s a really excellent consolation prize for those who missed out on Jones.
Kodai Senga, SP, NYM (2023)
IP: 144 ERA: 1.94 WHIP: 1.06 K: 156 BB: 49
Senga is a 3-time Nippon Professional Baseball All-Star and the clear number one option for pitching in your FYPDs. If you are contending in a points league I would have no problem taking him #1 overall. Here’s why:
He has premium fastball velocity. Not premium relative to NPB standards – relative to MLB fastballs. He reportedly sits 96 mph and has touched as high as 102 mph. Though the shape and angle of the pitch leave something to be desired, you can at least rest assured the velo will translate.
The prize pitch, however, is the splitter (he refers to this as a ghost forkball, which is badass). It sits mid-80’s and features hard vertical break, generating whiffs at twice the rate of his fastball. It tunnels well with the heater, making it a devastating out pitch. He rounds out his repertoire with a slider and a curveball, giving him multiple breaking options should he have an off day with any of them.
Termarr Johnson, 2B, PIT (2025)
AB: 63 R: 7 H: 14 HR: 1 RBI: 6 SB: 6 AVG: .222 OBP: .366 OPS: .731
Termarr’s 5’10, 175LB frame packs a punch. He won the High School Home Run Derby at Coors Field as a 17-year-old. On top of that, some evaluators gave him an 80-grade hit tool. I’m not yet willing to go there yet (it’s a bridge too far for a prep bat) but there is a lot to like visually in his swing.
He uses a concise, direct-to-the-baseball stroke to spray line drives with authority to all fields. His preternatural instinct for contact paired with impressive swing decisions make him a relatively high-floor prospect, particularly when measured against his prep peers.
Cam Collier, 3B, CIN (2025)
AB: 27 R: 7 H: 10 HR: 2 RBI: 4 SB: 0 AVG: .370 OBP: .514 OPS: 1.144
Every year there are fantasy players who use the results of the MLB draft to inform their strategy in FYPDs. Every year those players miss out on exceptional talent that falls because of the way draft money is designated in baseball.
Collier is one of those exceptional talents. He has an extraordinarily mature approach for a 17-year-old, and paired with tremendous contact ability (90% zone contact) makes for a profile I am enamored with. He’s not selling out power for contact either – he posted the highest wood bat max exit velocity of any prep bat available outside of Elijah Green. He’ll be volatile in FYPDs, likely landing somewhere between 5 and 10, but is every bit worth investing in at the price.
Elijah Green, OF, WAS (2025)
AB: 43 R: 9 H: 13 HR: 2 RBI: 9 SB: 1 AVG: .302 OBP: .404 OPS: .939
In my opinion (and this is my piece, so you’re going to get my opinion), Green represents the riskiest of all options atop FYPD drafts. He originally slid down MLB draft boards because of growing concerns about his contact rates and penchant for swing-and-miss against both spin and high velocity. It’s rather evident on video, too.
With that out of the way… Wow. The bat speed, strength, and quickness are top of the scale. There is perhaps not another player available this year with a greater ceiling.
Spencer Jones, OF, NYY (2025)
AB: 93 R: 21 H: 32 HR: 4 RBI: 12 SB: 12 AVG: .344 OBP: .425 OPS: .963
We’ve really only got three things to go off with Jones: the size, what he accomplished with the Commodores, and the small sample in professional ball this year.
Let’s start with the elephant in the room, both literally (if you’re in the same room as Jones) and figuratively – he’s massive. Standing 6’7”, 225LBs, Jones towers over most of his competition. The super-sized frame helps him generate tremendous power, but also drives some concerns that he’ll have an Aaron Judge/O’Neil Cruz-like strike zone to contend with.
He started his collegiate career with Vanderbilt as a two way player and was shelved for a significant amount of time after undergoing TJS in 2020. He didn’t become an everyday player until 2022, but the year he had was scintillating. He slashed .370/.460/.644 for an 1.104 OPS. Pretty, pretty, pretty good.
He lost no steam in his full-season debut. The line speaks for itself, but what really grabs my attention was his ability to limit strikeouts. Given the zone concerns as a result of his extreme frame and the K figures in his final collegiate campaign, it was very encouraging to see him K just 18.9% of the time in Single-A.
Kevin Parada, C, NYM (2024)
AB: 40 R: 6 H: 11 HR: 1 RBI: 8 SB: 0 AVG: .275 OBP: .455 OPS: .880
I won’t lie: I had initially been dropping Parada in these ranks while taking a first pass. That was very ill-advised.
His profile screams for a points league bump. In his final year at Georgia Tech he homered in over 10% of his at-bats (26 bombs in 258 ABs), all while walking nearly as much as he struck out (30BB vs. 32K). Aluminum bats, yadda yadda, he was a premier talent in the ACC measured against his peers.
He’s got a bit of an unconventional setup at the dish, keeping his hands high and the bat wrapped over his shoulder pointing nearly straight down, with his stance open until the pitcher begins his delivery. A demonstrable leg kick brings him square, and the remainder of the swing is quick and quiet. His film is gross (in a good way).
Chase DeLauter, OF, CLE (2024)
Did Not Play
DeLauter was once DeLauded as a potential top-5 pick. A broken foot that ended his collegiate season in 2022 paired with a poor showing in the first collegiate series of the year against premium pitching at Florida State deflated some of his draft stock. He was ultimately selected 16th by Cleveland.
A large left-handed outfielder, DeLauter demonstrates a lot of desirable traits as a hitter. He has the potential to hit for both average and power while maintaining strong K and BB rates (21K to 28BB in his final year at James Madison). Ceiling looks like a middle-of-the-order masher with middling stolen base potential.
He’s shown some struggle with high velocity and spin down and away, largely driven by his unique bat path, but I believe the approach and swing decisions will help mitigate any ill effects of those holes. He could rise quickly once he’s made his debut.
Zach Neto, SS, LAA (2024)
AB: 147 R: 24 H: 44 HR: 5 RBI: 27 AVG: .299 OBP: .377 OPS: .853
The first first-round pick in Campbell school history, Neto is one of my favorite targets in FYPDs this year. His professional debut was very encouraging – some folks were not sold on his performance as Big South Conference Player of the Year – and he projects to have plus or better tools across the board.
He features a large leg kick from the right side that tones down with two strikes, maximizing his potential for impact early in counts and minimizing strikeout concerns to the extent that he can. He managed a 76% contact rate this year largely driven by extraordinary hand-eye coordination.
In a very small sample at Double-A (30 games / 136 PA) he slashed .320/.382/.492 with 4 homers and a 21.1 K%. There is 20/20 potential here (not that you care about the stolen bases, but c’mon man – they aren’t worth nothin’).
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