Underrated Hitting Prospects With Good Data
Being early on prospects is the key to success in a dynasty. Playing a game with prospects is like playing the stock market. Knowing when to hold a player and when the sell a player. It is not an easy game. Sometimes we hold prospects for too long and their stock ends up falling. Sometimes we trade a prospect early and their stock soars and we feel like we missed out.
At the end of the day, grabbing prospects early is a major way to guarantee a return on investment with no risk. So who are the prospects that I think are underrated? Let’s discuss.
Justin Foscue, 2B, TEX, 24 yo, AAA
Justin Foscue is likely the highest-ranked player on this list. Maybe I have just been high on him a while because most do not have him in their top-200. He was Top-125 for me preseason and inside my top-100 now and only plays up in an OBP format.
Foscue is slashing .268/.379/.464 with three home runs and four stolen bases. Foscue’s plate discipline profile looks really good. He has a 93.7 percent zone-contact rate and an 86.1 percent overall contact rate. He is chasing just 26 percent of the time which is very solid!
When you head over to the batted ball profile you see some good numbers. His 90th percentile exit velocity is higher than MLB average at 103.5 mph and he has a 91.3 mph average exit velocity. For what it is worth, Mike Trout also has a 91.3 mph average exit velocity which is 80th percentile among MLB hitters.
Foscue is a really good hitter, and is still undervalued. He is a top-50 prospect in OBP dynasty leagues. Buy in before the rest of the industry catches up on him.
Jacob Reimer, 3B, NYM, 19 yo, A
Jacob Reimer was the Mets’ fourth-round pick in the 2022 draft. His start in Low-A this year has been pretty impressive despite the surface numbers not wowing you. He has just one home run and two stolen bases in 104 plate appearances and a .265/.404/.325 slash. The .060 ISO probably gives you some pause, but let’s look a little deeper.
Reimer makes really solid contact. His overall contact rate of 83.1 percent and his zone-contact of 86.4 percent are both highly-impressive for his age(just turned 19). He chases just 17.7 percent of pitches out of the zone. For reference, Juan Soto, who has elite plate discipline is chasing 18.8 percent of pitches. MLB pitching is much different, but that is just a good reference point to show you Reimer’s solid chase rate.
Reimer actually hits the ball fairly hard despite the low ISO. His average exit velocity of 88.8 is very good for his age and he has a 102.6 mph 90th percentile exit velocity. The ground ball rate is a bit high, but don’t be surprise when Reimer moves up rankings.
Jared Serna, 2B, NYY, 20 yo, A
Jared Serna is small, listed at 5’6, but packs a decent punch. The 20-year old is still in Low-A, but a promotion could be coming soon. Serna has a .377/.473/.558 slash with two home runs and seven stolen bases. He is striking out just 7.7 percent of the time and has a 14.3 percent walk rate.
Serna has an impressive 91.6 percent zone-contact rate and a 88.8 percent overall contact rate. He is a bit chase happy(32 percent) but it has not affected his performance yet.
Serna has an average exit velocity of 87.8 mph and a 103.8 mph 90th percentile exit velocity. That 90th is above average by MLB standards. Serna does hit the ball on the ground too often, but I am intrigued by this profile.
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