Toronto Blue Jays Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

Discover sleepers and breakouts from the Toronto Blue Jays for dynasty fantasy baseball both on the MLB and prospect side.

With dynasty season ramping up, it is time to talk about some sleepers, breakouts, and busts for each team. You can find our rankings and reports to see how we at the Dynasty Dugout value players for your dynasty leagues, but I also feel like it’s helpful to truly identify whether I believe a player can be a breakout or not. Here is where we call our shots on players, I think, require a call to action in dynasty, whether it be to buy or sell that player.

Let’s discuss some sleepers, breakouts, and busts for dynasty from the Toronto Blue Jays.

Toronto Blue Jays Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, Busts

MLB Sleeper: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B

MVP runner-up in 2021, held off only by one of the greatest single seasons in baseball history. Down ballot MVP vote recipient in 2022. Cover of MLB The Show in 2024. Sneaking in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the Jays’ sleeper pick proved too tempting for my feeble mind, what with him accruing a measly 1 WAR in 2023 on the back of his worst offensive performance of the last three years. How much of that was true skill regression? How much was as a result of poor batted ball luck?

Guerrero’s underlying data doesn’t signal to me that he should be faded significantly, especially not in points formats. In 2023, he improved on his xBA, xwOBA, xSlug, Sweet Spot %, and chase rate while holding his average exit velocity and barrel rates largely steady. His spray chart didn’t change – he didn’t stop pulling the ball, that is – and his average launch angle improved. He was rewarded with surface results that trailed 2022.

So what gives? Heaters. Vladdy was fed a healthy fastball diet last year and simply stopped crushing them like he had in years prior. Fastballs constituted 28.2% of all pitches flung in his direction in 2023 (up from 25.4% in 2022), and his results cratered. His batting average fell 55 points, his slugging percentage fell 123 points (!!), and his K% against jumped from 12.3% to 18.8%. If Vladdy can adjust – which, to be clear, should be the expectation for a great hitter against the most common offering in the sport – the opportunity to profit is greater than it is for any other player on the Jays’ roster.

MLB Breakout: Orelvis Martinez, 3B

There are a lot of jerseys vying for playing time at third base in Toronto. Roster Resource points toward Isiah Kiner-Falefa, while MLB Playing Time reckons it’ll be Cavan Biggio. There’s also Justin Turner, Davis Schneider, Damiano Palmegiani, Eduardo Escobar, and Santiago Espinal. It’s possible one of that group seizes a full-time role and never relinquishes it, but I’d rather bet on Orelvis Martinez to debut and add more firepower to the lineup than any of the other candidates for the job figure.

Last season constituted a big bounceback campaign for Martinez. He cut his strikeout rate from 28.6% to 23.4% year-over-year while maintaining superlative power output. It looked a lot like true hit tool skill gain as he cut his chase rate and improved his zone contact rate to 85%. His 90th percentile EV landed at 106 mph which remains firmly plus. He’s a damage on contact darling as a result of pulled fly ball rate.

It’s not a perfect profile by any means. There are still warts in his hit tool, and he’ll probably run below-average BABIPs because of the batted ball profile that allows him to do so much damage – fly balls don’t generally result in much unless they find a gap or go over the fence. Still, if I’m betting on the best long-term play in the Blue Jays’ crowded infield, it’s going to be Martinez.

MLB Bust: George Springer, OF

It’s not exactly a secret that Springer has had trouble staying healthy over the last few years, but that’s not why he’s my MLB bust. He’s got some things going for him: he appears to be healthy, John Schneider has intimated that he’ll remain the leadoff hitter, and he’ll be in the lineup day in and day out. He will return some value in 2024, but I don’t think it’s commensurate with his current 115 ADP in high-stakes competitions.

Springer was, objectively, as healthy last year as he’d been since 2016. He played 154 games after playing just 78 in 2021 and 133 in 2022. You’d expect that his underlying data might jump, or at the very least maintain, when he’s feeling good in his body. Not the case:

Springer’s 7.7% barrel rate was the lowest of his career. It coincided with his launch angle dipping below league average and well below the ideal range of 15-20°. His average exit velocity looks more like an average ballplayer, as does his wOBA. If he runs into any health problems in addition to being a league-average bat, it’s hard to see how he holds similar fantasy value going into 2025.

Prospect Sleeper: Jace Bohrofen, OF

Bohrofen was a 6th-round selection in 2023 and one of the few prospects taken beyond round five that have caught my attention but did not receive an over-slot bonus. He had a stellar final season with Arkansas following a transfer from Oklahoma in which he slashed .318/.436/.612 with 16 home runs in 267 plate appearances, and before that, he showed out well with wood bats on the Cape. That momentum carried into pro ball as he clobbered seven long balls in under 100 plate appearances.

His underlying data was pretty strong, too. He is judicious at the plate, chasing under 20% of all offerings out of the zone, and he makes enough contact for his game power to play. His 90th percentile EV in college was 106 mph, roughly two ticks, and some change above MLB average, and while that backed up a bit with wood against professional pitching, there was still plenty of pop present for him to show it off in games.

He’s basically free in FYPDs. As far as late-round fliers go, you could do a lot worse. 

Prospect Breakout: Arjun Nimmala, SS

Toronto has strayed away from the high school population rather staunchly since the 2020 draft, with their last three classes including four, seven, and four prepsters respectively. They snagged Nimmala at 20th overall last summer despite that new philosophy but practiced some restraint with his signing bonus by offering him $700K under the slot value.

As a child, Nimmala was a cricketer before transitioning to baseball, and he blossomed into a data standout in his Perfect Game showcase tenure by posting a 100th-percentile tee EV and a 98th-percentile 60-yard dash time among his PG peers.

He went on to win Gatorade Player of the Year for the state of Florida by running a .479/.573/.904 slash with six home runs, seven doubles, and three triples in 25 games for Strawberry Crest. He showed tantalizing physical tools, including (but not limited to) big power in games as a result of seemingly above-average bat speed, and his six-foot-one, 170 lb frame remains projectable. Nimmala didn’t turn 18 until December.

Though he struggled with swing decisions a bit as a prep, he made some strides early in his pro tenure. His K/BB in the Florida Complex actually improved relative to his high school numbers on a similar sample, and while both are small, it’s certainly nice to see it move in the right direction. He should open the year back at the complex.