Top First Base Prospects for Dynasty Fantasy Baseball: 2024
Chris Clegg breaks down his top 75 first base prospect rankings for dynasty fantasy baseball.
*Cover photo with images by Patrick Cavey and MLB Pipeline.
The first base position is an interesting one for dynasty purposes. On one hand, the MLB crop is loaded at the position that has depth. From a prospect perspective, it is not as great and lacks depth. Several of the top prospects at the position also play other positions in the field, leaving questions about where their future home really is. Even for deeper leagues, 75 first base prospects being rostered may be a lot. But I hope this list is catered well to all league types and formats.
Let’s discuss the top 75 first base prospects for dynasty fantasy baseball.
1. Samuel Basallo, C/1B, BAL, 19, 6’3”/180
Signing in 2021 for a $1.3 million bonus, the largest in the Orioles class that year, Basallo has done nothing but improve every year and now looks like a potential star hitter. At the complex level in 2022, Basallo showed good power and a feel for contact, and then in 2022, Basallo fully broke out, reaching Double-A by season's end.
Between three levels and 114 games, Basallo slashed a smooth .313/.402/.551 with 20 home runs and 53 extra-base hits while even stealing 12 bases. Spending time at first base and catcher, it is highly possible that we see Basallo play first base long-term due to the Orioles having Adley Rutschman behind the dish, but he could still catch enough to keep C eligibility in some fantasy leagues.
The power is still eye-popping, and the hit tool has developed very nicely. Basallo’s 90th percentile exit velocity was one of the best for his age, checking in over 106 mph. The contact skills also play as Basallo posted a 73 percent contact rate on the season.
Basallo will be 19 for the majority of the 2024 season and starting the year in Double-A with a chance to further solidify himself as a top prospect in the game. If you have not invested yet in dynasty, it may be too late, but Basallo is a stud in the making.
2. Kyle Manzardo, 1B, CLE, 23, 6’0”/205
After being selected by the Rays in the second round of the 2021 draft, Manzardo hit and hit some more, with his breakout coming during the 2022 season. After dealing with things off the field for most of 2023 as well as a dislocated shoulder, 2023 felt like a lost season in some ways, but Manzardo rebounded in a major way in the Arizona Fall League, getting back to the root of who he is as a player.
Manzardo has a strong feel for contact, leaving the barrel in the zone for a long time. He made contact on 80 percent of pitches in 2023 with a zone contact rate of 90 percent. The contact has always been strong, but some questioned the ability to get to power after 2022.
Making major strides in that department, Manzardo posted an average exit velocity north of 90 mph with a 90th percentile of 104.5 mph. Those numbers were up from 88.2 and 102.6 mph in 2022.
The contact and plate discipline skills are easily plus or better, and the blossoming power may end up being above-average or plus when all is said or done. The hit tool gives Manzarod a unique skillset at first base, and the blossoming power gives some intriguing potential.
3. Heston Kjerstad, 1B/OF, BAL, 24, 6’3”/205
After being selected second overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Kjerstad didn’t make his professional debut until two years later due to myocarditis and a hamstring injury.
After posting strong numbers in 2022 in Single-A and High-A, Kjerstad was sent to the Arizona Fall Leauge where he made up for lost time and showed his true potential.
Jump to 2023 and between Double-A and Triple-A, he slashed .303/.376/.528 with 21 home runs across 122 games, earning a promotion to the majors. In limited action, Kjerstad held his own and showed he was more than capable of being an everyday regular in the Majors.
Kjerstad posted a 75 percent contact rate with a major jump to 88 percent on pitches in the zone. He is aggressive and does have some chase, but the high zone-contact counteracts it.
From a power standpoint, Kjerstad has easy plus or better power projection, posting a 106 mph 90th percentile last season with an average near 90 mph. Kjerstad could be a staple in the middle of Baltimore’s lineup for many years to come.
4. Xavier Isaac, 1B, TB, 20, 6’4”/240
Issac was a rare prep first baseman selected in the first round by the Rays, but Isaac was an analytics darling who fit the Rays’ system perfectly. While having a big frame, Isaac actually moves pretty well for his size, showing to be a decent athlete and a strong offensive player.
The power is the calling card here, and it showed up this year as Isaac spent the entire season as a 19-year-old and posted a 108 mph 90th percentile exit velocity to pair with an 89 mph average exit velocity. Isaac has also hit some majestic home runs, maxing out at 115 mph.
The contact skills have shown to be questionable at times, as he posted just a 67 percent contact rate in 2023, which dropped down in the second half to 65 percent. The zone contact also showed slightly below average at 77 percent. The good news is that Isaac had a strong strike zone recognition and chased just 22 percent of pitches out of the zone, leading to solid walk rates near 15 percent in 2023.
While Isaac often hits the ball at ideal launch angles, the number was actually near zero degrees to the pull side, which, if corrected, could lead to big-time power outputs. While Isaac is not the best runner, I mentioned his athleticism, and it showed as he was 12 for 12 on stolen base attempts in 2023.
5. Lazaro Montes, 1B/OF, SEA, 19, 6’4”/250
Montes is a massive human being with a sweet left-handed swing that generates easy power. After dominating the Dominican Summer League in 2022 as a 17-year-old, Montes went stateside in 2023, spending equal time between the complex and Single-A, slashing .303/.440/.560 with 13 home runs.
The calling card here is the power as Montes generates easy bat speed and can send a baseball to the moon. At the complex, Montes registered a 118 mph exit velocity, which is insane for an 18-year-old. His swing generates natural loft, allowing Montes to get to home run power with ease.
The contact skills are the major question mark here. With a big frame and an aggressive swing, Montes does have holes. He ran a contact rate near 69 percent last year, but as the season wore on, he began to see more breaking balls which really ate him up. In September, the swing rate ticked up, as did the chase rate, all while the contact rate dropped below 65 percent, a concerning mark.
While Montes will likely move to first base long-term, the bat will play. The power is some of the best in the minors and even if the hit tool stays below average, the OBP skills are there which helps. There is no speed to speak of, but Montes could be a 30 home run bat consistently.
6. Bryce Eldridge, LHP/1B, SF, 19, 6’7”/223
Eldridge is a two-way player who is a lefty on the mound with a big power bat at first base. The 6’7” prep player has a chance to develop as a two-way guy, and I firmly believe he could do both.
On the mound, Eldridge has a fastball up to 96 mph that is more of a sinker from a high release point that plays well down in the zone. He can miss bats but also keep the ball on the ground at a high rate.
Eldridge has a solid slider with nice sweeping action in the low 80s that gets a ton of chase out of the zone, but he will need to locate it better. The curve and changeup were not used often as a prep, as Eldridge dominated with the fastball and slider. But the changeup sits in the mid-80s and the curve in the upper 70s.
Despite having a massive strike zone standing at 6’7”, Eldridge makes respectable contact but will need to prove he can hit against more advanced pitching as he moves up. The numbers between the Complex and Single-A were impressive, though, as he posted a .294/.400/.505 with six home runs and five doubles in 31 games.
Surprisingly, he did not chase often, posting a 20 percent chase rate, and he had some crazy high exit velocity for his age.
It’s hard to say if the Giants decide to pull the plug on Eldridge either hitting or pitching. He could develop as a legitimate two-way talent if San Francisco chooses to. The upside is worth betting on here.
7. Tyler Locklear, 1B, SEA, 23, 6’1”/210
A second-round draft pick out of VCU in 2022, Locklear hit the ground running in Single-A Modest post-draft. In 2023, he missed time due to injury, but Locklear accumulated 375 plate appearances between High-A and Double-A, posting a .288/.405/.502 slash with 13 home runs and 12 stolen bases.
Locklear has a funky pre-swing setup with his hands high and a bat-waggle similar to Gary Sheffield's. It causes Locklear to have impeccable timing when it comes to his load and swing. While having high-end contact skills in college and his pro debut, Locklear made contact on just 70 percent of pitches he saw in 2023, which was a step back from his 76 percent mark in 2022.
The power is plus as Locklear posts above-average exit velocities and gets to power to all fields with ease. To the pull-side, Locklear hits some towering home runs and he is comfortable spraying doubles to the gaps, especially on outside pitches.
Locklear does not chase often and posts high walk rates, leading him to play better in an OBP format. Being a first base only, there is pressure on the bat, but Locklear has the power and solid enough contact skills to be a solid contributor at the big league level as soon as 2024.
8. Abimelec Ortiz, 1B, TEX, 22, 6’0”/230
Ortiz does not get talked about among the high-end, power-hitting first baseman, but he likely should. Coming off a season mostly spent at High-A, Ortiz mashed 33 home runs while slashing .290/.363/.624.
The power is legit, backed by a 90 mph average exit velocity and a 90th percentile north of 106 mph. Ortiz hits the ball hard to all fields well at ideal launch angles, posting a sweet spot percentage near 40 percent in 2023.
For a player with Ortiz’s size and power, you might not expect decent contact skills; but Ortiz posted a contact rate north of 70 percent with an in-zone contact rate north of 78 percent. Chasing at a rate better than the league average at 29 percent.
Ortiz can be aggressive at times, and in seeing him in person, he got eaten up on some good breaking balls. But for the most part, the aggressive swing worked as Ortiz mashed home runs with big exit velocities. Power is the calling card, but Ortiz also makes suitable enough contact.
9. Tyler Black, CI, MIL, 23, 5’10”/204
Black defies all odds of a corner infielder who has struggled to find a position throughout his career. Black is listed at 5’10” but looks taller and has an athletic frame. He has a massive leg kick from the left side of the plate with plenty of moving parts, but he still manages to post strong contact rates, with an 80 percent overall contact rate on the season and an in-zone rate of 87 percent. His chase rate of 18 percent is also quite impressive and shows strong plate discipline and the ability to take walks and post high OBPs.
From a power standpoint, Black saw his numbers jump this year in both production and underlying data. After hitting just four home runs in 2022 between the regular season and the Arizona Fall League, Black mashed 18 in 2023 in 558 plate appearances. The exit velocities jumped in a big way, and while they were still closer to average, it was a huge jump from 2022.
Black has excelled and progressed largely because of the strong athlete that he is. It showed up, especially on the base paths, as Black showcased his speed and strong stolen base instincts, stealing 55 bases in 2023.
Despite not having a defensive home, Black’s bat could find a way to play. Given his speed and athleticism, you would hate to see first base be his long-term home, but it does seem like a possibility. At the plate, you can expect strong OBPs with respectable batting averages and a ton of damage on the base paths.
10. Joey Loperfido, OF/2B/1B, HOU, 24, 6’3”/220
A seventh-rounder in the 2021 draft out of Duke, Loperfido put together a solid first pro season in 2022, showing power, speed, and a good feel to hit. In 2023, he fully broke out, starting the year in High-A, but making it all the way to Triple-A by season’s end. On the year, he slashed .278/.370/.510 with 25 home runs and 27 stolen bases.
While the power likely played up due to being in hitter-friendly environments at all three levels he played at, the exit velocity was still respectable and showed above-average game power.
While the contact skills did show some regression in Triple-A, Loperfido finished the year with a contact rate of just over 74 percent, which is an average rate, but in his smaller Triple-A sample, that number dropped to 67 percent with a 78 percent zone contact rate.
Loperfido is a threat on the base paths while showing above-average speed. This season, he swiped 27 bases while getting caught stealing just four times. The speed also helps his versatility in the field, as Loperfido spent time at all outfield spots and second and first base. The versatility helps his ability to get on the field in Houston quicker, and Loperfido could profile as a solid power and speed threat.
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