Top 20 Pitching Prospects for Dynasty Speculation

Nate Handy breaks down his top 20 pitchers for dynasty

Post by: Nate Handy of B-Sides Podcast. Check out the show and subscribe below.

The main process here is eyeballs. Video explains development well, and deciphers truth from possible box score misleadings. Of course video has shortcomings. Of course, it’s not the only aspect of the process.

Execution skills are weighed heavily. Of course we want pitches with teeth, but weapons not being used well…aren’t great weapons. The ultimate fantasy big fish have big pitches being executed in a big time way. That’s the dream, and a tough one to find. If an arm significantly lacks either end of this spectrum, or our outlandish attempts to project how it goes down the road produce warning signs, a serious commitment isn’t happening.

Horsepower, the ability to log innings over a season, efficiency and effectiveness to get deep into games is a trickier skill to project, but we try. Harder to quantify, and articulate, pitchers with metal skills are favored over skills we may suspect more plastic in nature. We are seeking arms glimpsing reasons to trust over the next eight years, not just the now. Why eight years? Not because we think we’re rostering them that long, but because most pitchers’ peak in their late 20s/early 30s, and the best we can do is bet on rudders capable of guiding our spec arms through the long battle of attrition. We are valuing the player’s career we are ridiculously trying to project. The meaty development is going to take place in the bigs.

“Pitcher” means injury risk. It’s baked into every arm. Plan on one to one and a half of the theoretical eight years being lost. If a player has already had elbow surgery, maybe we don’t have to. Acting as if one in six arms don’t come back the same after elbow surgeries, we’ll take those odds, proceeding like everyone is going to resume their story where it left off, fine with the one in six guy who doesn’t. We aren’t going to bat 1.000 here anyways. (Shoulder surgeries might be a different animal though.Godspeed.)

Mike Mussina spoke about actively trying to invent pitches while on the mound during MLB games. Coming up with pitches/adapting arsenals is treated as a skill here. A skill requiring a certain athleticism and fortitude to craft. And in today’s game, the clues on how to evolve arsenal are presented to pitchers in an exponentially more bountiful manner than it once was. You may be able to clue into this ability or inability by watching pitchers closely. Playfully, we refer to this as the Mussina Index. This notion is part of why we treat execution skills, or lack thereof, stickier than stuff+ or pitch grades. We may be foolish to cement a definition of a young arm’s arsenal while a prospect. Bet the arsenal will look somewhat different down the long road.

Linear lists pretend circular references don’t fry your brain putting them together/reading them, and there aren’t illogical notions littering the whole dang thing. But it may be useful to line up names. testing your internal player debates. Here’s 20 arms (and some MiLB stats) I’d prefer to bet on making enough MLB quality pitches to last and do things for our dynasty squads:

 1. Andrew Painter, RHP, Phillies (45% Fantrax Ros%)

21 yo, 6’7”, Highest Level: AA 2022

13th overall pick 2021 Draft - FL prep

In the quest for highbrow offerings meeting exceptional ability using them, Painter’s 2022 AA run was an outlier of outliers type dream. And he was 19 at the time. Elbow surgery paused the story, but what’s it matter waiting around? It takes decades to see a teenager executing such a top shelf arsenal the way he was. Skenes fastball rudder vs Painter’s beyond his year’s execution? Painter’s elbow bouncing back vs Skenes elbow staying strong? What’s gonna happen if Skenes power fades? What’s gonna happen if Painter’s offerings take a dip post TJ? Flip a coin, but I’m giving the tiniest of edges to the execution skills gleaned by the teenager. Both prospects are truly phenomenal.

2. Paul Skenes, RHP, Pirates (97%)

21 yo, 6’6”, MLB 2024

1st pick 2023 Draft - LSU

Skenes’ 100 mph (sitting) heater has folks drooling on upside, but it’s the rudder this offering serves as Skenes navigates the bigs, leaving the most excitement. Betting Skenes will throw 100 over the long haul seems silly, but his attack should evolve. Skenes' offerings don’t require the cleanest execution machine in the land, but he isn’t too shabby and if he figures out how to harness/use them even better, there’s Hall of Fame career dreams in there. And if he doesn’t add all the polish, he’s probably still really good like we saw in Chicago.

3. Shane Baz, RHP, Rays (81%)

24 yo, 6’2”, MLB 2022

12th pick 2017 Draft - TX prep

This story is resuming soon with rehab looks leaving confidence Baz will be back to himself. During his minor league ascension and brief big league run, Baz flashed the big stuff meets execution we’re after. The Rays may preach to simply throw strikes, but Baz took it further, spotting his fastball exceptionally well and playing off it. Baz showed as an outlier regarding huge execution improvement over his minor league development, and I don’t mind gambling he proves exceptional in the bigs as well.

4. Jackson Jobe, RHP, Tigers (56%)

21 yo, 6’2”, AA 2023-24

3rd pick 2021 Draft - OK prep

Jobe showcased top end velocity this spring, and has since seen his insanely good walk rates balloon in early 2024. Still unsure if there’s a corollary but he’s shown enough of both ends of the arsenal and execution spectrums to leave me wanting to bet there is top end fantasy appeal here, hoping this walk uptick is about developmental calibration, not a sign of bad things to come.

5. Noah Schultz, LHP, White Sox (34%)

20 yo, 6’9”, AA 2024

26th pick 2022 Draft - IL prep

The White Sox quest for a Sale-esque dream feels more real than fantasy. The big young lefty is the riskiest gamble at the top of this list, but Schultz is flashing enough strike throwing and ability to effectively spot his budding nasty from a difficult arm slot, for me to get serious about the long haul. Currently, the execution flashes what we want, but there’s still inconsistencies. We’re gambling the requisite athleticism wins out in the end, and the consistent execution comes. Schultz's next start will be in double-A.

6. Cade Horton, RHP, Cubs (56%)

22 yo, 6’1”, AAA 2024

7th pick 2022 Draft - Oklahoma

Horton, who ascended quickly his final season at Oklahoma, has quieted my skepticism he was dominating as more a thrower with big stuff, than good pitcher, but there’s still a tinge of this wonderment. Stuff isn’t a concern here, and he’s impressed with his execution of it. He’s still a reluctant gamble on a high end fantasy asset, but the Cubs, who self-professed being on the cutting edge of coaching command, may have actually done some of it here. (Or Horton was just good and did it himself, what do we know?)

7.  Cade Cavalli, RHP, Nationals (32%)

25 yo, 6’4”, MLB 2022

22nd pick 2020 Draft - Oklahoma

Cavalli is one of my all-time favorite pitching development stories. Coming out of the box as your classic power arm, Cavalli put obvious effort in improving the secondaries and rounding out his game. While he did this, his production lacked the gaudiness it once had and consensus dynasty appeal waivered, while Cavalli was turning into something more exciting than before. Tommy John struck as he was getting his big league feet wet, but this story is resuming soon. If the rounded out game he was getting to, and the execution of it he flashed comes into MLB form, there’s a potential high end fantasy arm here.

8. Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, Blue Jays (63%)

21 yo, 6’3”, AAA 2024

91st pick 2021 Draft - CA JC

Sometimes the first time you watch a guy gets you on the edge of your seat. Only once did this come with a very real thought you should value him as one of the top pitching prospects in the land. That was Ricky T. You didn’t need metrics to see the potential in the fastball/slider combo from his left arm slot to know. With two big offerings and a physically imposing build, a lefty Daniel Espino-esque dream was born. Unintended/unaware there was a potential whammy of a similarity between the two, a struggle to stay on the mound. A bet on Ricky T’s future feels as wildcard a bet out there. #3 to off the list all together seems fair. Hoping health comes and Ricky can stay on the bump.

 9. Robby Snelling, LHP, Padres (39%)

20 yo, 6’3”, AA 2023-2024

39th pick 2022 Draft - NV prep

Snelling has a physical build with an ability to execute pitches at a high level for his age, while gleaning horsepower. A focus on stuff+ and arsenal grades seems the wrong ruler to measure Snelling, who impresses as a pitcher, a competitor, and a guy putting the work in. Questions about his arsenal and whiff abilities at this juncture are fair and fine, but feel good about all the harder things to find and sponge he may be in regards to improving his craft. 

10. Rhett Lowder, RHP, Reds (41%)

22 yo, 6’2”, AA 2024

7th pick 2023 Draft - Wake Forest

Lowder is a pitcher. Lowder might be a poster child for the “sum of all parts” crowd. Where the ones before him on this list might feel more electric, Lowder’s rudder is going to be his ability to use his arsenal, one with strikeout potential as well. “Safe” isn’t bad here. “Safe” doesn’t mean boring here. A gamble on Lowder having a long MLB run feels right, capping what his MLB production might look like, doesn’t. Lowder’s Mussina Index might also be high. He oozes the pitching spec marrying type.

11. Christian Scott, RHP, Mets (71%)

24 yo, 6’4”, MLB 2024

142nd pick 2021 Draft - Florida

Scott popped early in 2023 as an arm capable of efficiently earning strikeouts. The early video impressed even more, while he’s done nothing but prove it from a dynasty unknown to recent MLB success ascension. Scott’s ability to use his tools well seems legit, but there’s still some mystery how good the entirety of weaponry is, specifically breakers. But that question seems a better pill to swallow than the former. Lean hard on the tougher-to-find execution skills while the more whimsical “stuff” end of things enters its big-league evolution. The former Florida Gator reliever hasn’t proven the season long horsepower,, so we’re hoping he has it, or gets there eventually.

12. Adam Mazur, RHP, Padres (20%)

23 yo, 6’3”, AAA 2024

53rd pick 2022 Draft - Iowa

A higher-end stuff meets a high-end execution dream.  A George Kirby light kind of hope. What wasn’t on the radar was his proclivity to groove generic strikes, lacking nuance to his attack and the inability to hold fastball teeth later in outings. Yet there are 2024 flashes of him adding nuance and spotting offerings with more challenging attacks. Perhaps the Ks will jump then too? At some point he’s going to be forced to move from more generic strike thrower to true executionist. Now in triple-A, we will get some Savant info to help answer questions..

13. Caden Dana, RHP, Angels (18%)

20 yo, 6’4”, AA 2024

328th pick 2022 Draft - NJ prep

Last year I did as deep a video look at Dana as I could, coming away impressed with his north/south attack, wondering what he might have east/west-wise. Taking a close look at his latest outing found him deploying a slider and two-seam fastball more than last season, which was an encouraging developmental try to see. There’s still plenty of work to be done in this department, but concerns over swing and miss may dissipate if he grinds out more polish. The biggest appeal to Dana is the horsepower he’s showing. Dana is physical and producing high quantity and quality innings in the uppers whilst still a pitching baby. Horsepower alone, I’ll make a wager while the other things get requisite time to sharpen, hoping the Angels don’t push too hard and fast.

14. Chase Dollander, RHP, Rockies (29%)

22 yo, 6’2”, A+ 2024

9th pick 2023 Draft - Tennessee

It’s true I’m a Rockies fan and pay close attention to their farm, but this is coming from my best try at being unbiased. Before you automatically cross a Rockie arm off your list, I’d ask you to entertain the thought this isn’t your big brother’s Rockie pitching farm. Although they may still be a bit behind the times, they have taken steps forward with good things happening from the lowers to majors. They are picking out talent at a higher rate than the past and have never had this kind of collection of arm talent. Regardless, one thing with less room for interpretation is Dollander’s combination of stuff and ability to use it. 

15. Thomas White, LHP, Marlins (20%)

19 yo, 6’4”, A 2023-2024

35th pick 2023 Draft - MA prep

Out of the box came highbrow clay, with the frame, a potentially nice attack angle, and three pitches with real teeth. The biggest question, like most young arms, is if he can harness and learn how to use it well. We are just getting started, but I’ve seen too enticing of flashes (Spring Breakout Game as one example) to not align with the Marlins brass, feeling relatively good about a bet in this range paying off handsomely in the end. #15 might be as high as I can go when this much projection and finger crossing is involved, but White’s at the top of that wishlist.

16. Zebby Matthews, RHP, Twins (15%)

23 yo, 6’5”, AA 2024

234th pick 2022 Draft - Western Carolina

If your quest is plus execution finding plus stuff, the most loved “pop up” arm of this early 2024 season has to be valued highly. Zebby is a great example of why valuing pitchability just as much, if not more than stuff, might be wise. When you find a guy with the execution skills’ stuff jump (which happens more and more these days), you find your “no-namer” striking out 35% of hitters and walking no one, literally. It's risky to overreact to “new money,” of course, but picking this spot to do it feels wiser than cowboy.

17. Sean Sullivan, LHP, Rockies (5%)

21 yo, 6’4”, A+ 2024

46th pick 2023 Draft - Wake Forest

If you’re brave enough for the last walk on the Rockie wild side, let’s see how brave you are now? What about a Rockie soft-tossing-lefty? Being different from all the other pitchers a hitter sees goes a long way and that’s what Sullivan might be. Leaving the technical explanations to the pitch shape scholars, the fastball slaps differently, and the bats he faces show it. An arm whose fastball’s profile is the big appeal, might end up a better fit in Coors (and subsequently having to pitch away from Coors) than a more secondary-heavy arm. After watching Cody Bradford’s early season success with his softer fastball, I can’t help but wonder if Sullivan could do similar or better things. After the rest of the pool gets as globby as it is at this juncture, skills to really latch onto get harder to find, but I’ll take the ride on Sullivan’s fastball.

18. Mike Burrows, RHP, Pirates (4%)

24 yo, 6’1”, AAA 2023

324th pick 2018 Draft - CT prep

Two arms ascended the most for me in 2022, Burrows and Gavin Stone. Both happened to have changeups take huge steps that season as well. Burrows was refining a more polished attack showing an arsenal with more teeth, putting together the pieces of using it well as he started cracking top 100 lists. Then, while on the brink of the bigs in 2023, TJ struck the first month of the season. Hoping this story resumes soon and right where it left off.

19. J.R. Ritchie, RHP, Braves (8%)

20 yo, 6’2”, A 2023

35th pick 2022 Draft - WA prep

Gleaning just a few outings of a guy and trying to put a dynasty value on him is tough. Sometimes they go Logan Evans, sometimes they go nowhere. But I’m leaning on the Braves brass here and betting on the young executionist. Who knows where Ritchie woulda landed on lists had he not gone down with TJ, but the flashes he showed of executing an arsenal full of potential, excites enough to get serious after just a few dates. If he proves to be the young precision guy he’s lauded to be, and I’ve seen, we’re gonna be pleased we did this.

20. Joander Suarez, RHP, Mets (2%)

24 yo, 6’3”, AA 2023-2024

2018 Int FA - Venezuela

Suarez has dominated more lineups in AA over the last calendar year than anyone, flashing strikeout ability while creating heaps of weak contact on the ground. I’ve never gotten the best angle of his offerings, but the slider does bad things to hitters. Suarez feels unjustly unloved in the dynasty world, perhaps because he does more than his fair share of long relief, stepping aside for rehab arms and the like, creating hidden “starts” in his numbers? He has a history of walk issues too, but that feels dated. Regardless, Suarez has shown enough to damn consensus and put this kind of value on for me. Maybe there is good reason he hasn’t been lauded yet, but I haven’t seen it. The biggest question is if the Mets are treating him like a true potential MLB starter. Unsure they are lands Saurez the last spot here, instead of further up.