Beck's Top-100 Prospects For Dynasty Points Leagues
Discover the top-100 future starts of MLB for dynasty points leagues with Beck's top 100 prospect rankings.
*Cover photo with images by Nick Cammett and Nathan Ray Seebeck
Editors Note: I am incredibly proud of Beck and how much he has grown over the last year. This Top-100 list is evidence of that. Seeing him at the Arizona Fall League learning and growing as a prospect evaluator was awesome! The article is too long for post, so we published in PDF. The entire top-100 is free so be sure to click the PDF to download and get to reading.
PDF with full Top-100 Writeups!
Top 100 Prospects Dynasty Points Leagues
Top Prospects: Tier 1
1. Wyatt Langford, OF, Texas Rangers
Age: 21 Level(s): A, AA, AAA Height: 6’1 Weight: 225 lbs Bats/Throws: R/R
Why he’s here:
Langford narrowly missed being the second player in MLB history to make their major league debut in the World Series in the wake of Adolis Garcia’s game four oblique injury that would ultimately hold him out for the remainder of the series. The first was Adalberto Mondesi in the 2015 World Series (hold on to that for your bar trivia). It’s an outrageously rare occurrence that would have been further accentuated by the reality that Langford was drafted a mere three months prior. His rapid ascent through the Rangers’ system confirmed what some evaluators believed on draft day: Langford could have contributed to a big-league club on day one. He figures to play a significant role in 2024 in the heart of the order.
His college batted ball and plate discipline data was sterling and rivaled or surpassed that of Dylan Crews across the board. He made ample contact on pitches in the zone, avoided chasing pitches out of the zone at an elite rate, and punished baseballs he put in play to the tune of a 108 mph 90th percentile exit velocity. Those figures held strong through the transition to wood bats against professional pitching as he tore through High-A and Double-A in quick succession. He stole far more bags in a much smaller sample post-draft, and while he’s an above-average runner, that pace likely isn’t representative of his future output.
This is a special offensive talent. Not only does he have plus-plus raw power, but his swing is already optimized to get the most of it in games. He’s an exceptionally good fastball hitter with natural loft that maximizes extra base damage when he squares one up. He doesn’t waste hard-hit balls by beating them into the ground very often, and his ability to spit on pitches he cannot impact with authority – as well as identify the ones he can – should translate to quality at-bats from the get-go.
Langford has a special combination of power, contact ability, and plate discipline. His situation can’t be ignored; he’s on the precipice of debut in a potent lineup that features Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia, and Josh Jung.
2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Age: 24 Level(s): NPB Height: 5’10 Weight: 176 lbs Bats/Throws: R/R
Why he’s here:
Editors’ note: The original blurb was written over the course of November prior to Yamamoto’s signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers. He received a 12-year, $325M contract with opt outs after year six that will keep him in LA through his age-30 season.
The Orix Buffaloes of Nippon Professional Baseball have officially announced Yamamoto would be posted to MLB, giving front offices 45 days to negotiate and come to terms with the three-time Sawamura award winner. The news broke just 48 hours after he fired a 138-pitch complete game with a single-game record 14 strikeouts in the Japan Series. He’s projected to command a contract cresting the $300M threshold and six or more years.
Yamamoto has been one of the best pitchers in the world for several seasons and he’ll be just 25 when he debuts in MLB, similar to previous NPB imports Masahiro Tanaka and Yu Darvish. He’s the only pitcher in NPB history to throw a no-hitter in consecutive seasons by achieving the feat in each of the last two years, and he took a step forward in 2023 both in terms of quality of stuff and ability to work efficiently.
He’ll immediately join the front of the rotation wherever he lands, and without certainty on which club he’ll join, we’ll be treating him as context-neutral. It’s incredibly unlikely that a team like Colorado or Cincinnati signs him and he’s subject to poor park factors; it’s far more probable he ends up with a contender. In terms of arsenal, Yamamoto commands five pitches with three that play as plus or better.
It’s been some time since we’ve had an international signee from Asia as exciting as Yamamoto. That he’ll be immediately ready and eligible to contribute at the big-league level is a differentiator that makes him the most attractive pitching prospect in baseball. His fastball has unique release height and induced vertical break characteristics that should translate to MLB without turbulence, and both his splitter and ‘rainbow curve’ are plus pitches he can command with supreme confidence.
His floor is relatively high for an international player, too. The most common concerns surrounding players coming from NPB or KBO are culture adjustments, level of competition, and how well their repertoire will play against the best hitters in the world. The first concern is valid; we do not know how Yamamoto, specifically, will adjust to the United States. The latter two aren’t as scary as usual – his performance has been pristine, he has excellent stuff, and his control is otherworldly. His 4.2% walk rate in 2023 was behind just George Kibry, Zach Eflin, and Logan Webb.
I would take him ahead of Langford in first-year player drafts if my team were a good starting pitcher away from competing for a league championship.
3. Junior Caminero, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays
Age: 19 Level(s): A, AA, MLB Height: 5’11 Weight: 157 lbs Bats/Throws: R/R
Why he’s here:
Hitting the baseball hard is good. Caminero does it more often than any player in minor league baseball. His 90th percentile exit velocity led all minor leaguers and would be fifth in the entire sport behind just Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Giancarlo Stanton. His 31 home runs in the regular season are the thirteenth-most by a teenager in history.
Unlike most mashers, Caminero gets to his prodigious power without sacrificing bat-to-ball ability. His 20% strikeout rate is the product of an 80% zone-contact rate, and his all-fields approach means he’s unlikely to be one-dimensional at the big league level. He has lightning-quick hands capable of putting baseballs over the fence to all spots between the foul poles.
From a purely offensive standpoint, Caminero is one of the most promising players in our sport. Circumstances beyond his control like team context have him in bronze position in ordinal rank, but positional scarcity and the narrowest of advantages over Langford and Yamamoto in age make him an attractive option at the very top. He’ll likely outperform Langford on batting average with similar surface power output but lag in stolen base contribution.
You don’t find a power/contact combination like this often. Usually you’ll get one or the other – impact with whiff á la Joey Gallo and Kyle Schwarber or contact sans thump like Luis Arraez and Steven Kwan – but Caminero has the right mix of both. His relative deficiency in stolen base contribution slots him just behind Wyatt Langford, but I wouldn’t argue with anybody who feels strongly that he’s the top prospect in the format.
4. Jackson Holliday, SS, Baltimore Orioles
Age: 19 Level(s): A, A, AA, AAA Height: 6’0 Weight: 185 lbs Bats/Throws: L/R
Why he’s here:
Holliday has enjoyed a meteoric rise through Baltimore’s system since last July by way of merit. Climbing four levels in one season is a feat without further qualification. That Holliday did it in his age-19 season, ending the year in Triple-A Norfolk without interruption to surface-level production, is astonishing. He carried an OPS north of .900 until reaching his final destination and nearly walked more than he struck out, all while being significantly younger than his competition at all times.
Holliday has special ability to drive the ball to all fields and has shown the aptitude to put a good swing on the ball even when fooled. He is discerning beyond his years, boasting a pristine 21% chase rate in his short Triple-A sample while making contact on 88% of swings in the zone. His pitch recognition, swing decisions, and ability to battle through an at-bat give him a staggeringly high on-base floor.
He finds himself at fourth overall with only one demerit – it’s unclear how much power he’ll ultimately tap into. His 102 mph 90th percentile exit velocity is solid for his age but not not eye-popping, and while there is certainly room for his frame to expand and support good weight, I’m not willing to treat a significant jump in impact as a certainty. His surface numbers were buoyed by an unsustainable .408 batting average on balls in play.
While Holliday is listed third among hitters, I’d be comfortable dealing Langford or Caminero for him in the right circumstance. His profile is tailor-made for the format and his only crime was failing to be an above-average power threat at 19 years old. He should be with the Orioles soon and he’ll compile points in an exciting young lineup when he joins them.
5. Jackson Chourio, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Age: 19 Level(s): AA, AAA Height: 5’11 Weight: 165 lbs Bats/Throws: R/R
Why he’s here:
Milwaukee snagged Chourio with a $1.8M signing bonus in the 2021 international class, tied with Larry Ernesto in 2017 for most money committed to an international signing by the organization in the last seven years. He immediately made good on the investment by slashing .296/.386/.447 in the DSL that summer, then lighting the baseball world ablaze by reaching Double-A as an 18-year-old the following year.
The introduction of a pre-tacked baseball in the Southern League (alongside a host of other rule changes) during the first half of the 2023 minor league season created an interesting wrinkle in player evaluation on both sides of the ball. Chourio contended with it until the All-Star break, and, as the youngest player in that league, managed to tread water until going nuclear in the second half. He was one of three hitters aged 20 or younger to accrue 50 or more plate appearances in Double-A and one of four teens since 1963 to tally 20 home runs and 40 stolen bases in a single season.
Of all of his tools, Chourio’s laser-fast hands stand out. It’s rare to see the kind of all-fields impact he displays, especially for a player of his size, and it’s directly related to his superlative bat speed. The Brewers have reported Chourio’s average bat speed to be 85 mph, which is a full three ticks higher than the average among major league players. It allows him to spray line drives and fly balls into both power alleys and over the fence regardless of pitch location. The double-plus bat speed combined with his double-plus foot speed are likely to combine for higher than average BABIPs.
What Chourio lacks in plate discipline presently he makes up for in contact and athleticism. He projects to be a 2030 candidate annually and will join the Brewers early in the 2024 season. His ceiling rivals any player in all of minor league baseball. He doesn’t turn 20 until March of next year.
Top Prospects: Tier 2
6. Dylan Crews, OF, Washington Nationals
Age: 21 Level(s): CPX, A, AA Height: 6’0 Weight: 205 lbs Bats/Throws: R/R
Why he’s here:
Crews has been a known entity in baseball circles for well over five years as a Florida prep and a projected first-rounder ahead of the 2020 draft. He opted to forego the draft and enroll at Louisiana State where he compiled 58 home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a near 1.200 OPS as a three-year starter before becoming the second overall pick in the 2023 draft. He won the Golden Spikes award for best amateur player in the nation, led the Tigers to a national championship alongside teammate Paul Skenes, and inked a $9M signing bonus – the second largest in draft history – all in six months.
He’s a five-tool player, and fortunately the tools that translate most directly to fantasy are the strongest in his belt. He makes a ton of contact and has elite plate discipline that forces pitchers to either beat him in the zone or issue him a free pass, both of which constitute a double-plus grade on the hit tool when combined. His average exit velocity of 96 mph and 90th percentile exit velocity of 110 mph were the best among all college draftees, albeit with aluminum. His batted balls are at optimal angles as evidenced by an eye-popping 26% barrel rate with LSU.
The Nationals promoted him twice in rapid succession following the draft with stops in the Florida Complex and Low-A Fredericksburg prior to his ultimate destination with Double-A Harrisburg. Over half of his 159 professional plate appearances were at Double-A where his overall slash took a beating and turned some prospectors away, but he was largely inhibited by an extreme pitcher’s park and a well below-average BABIP that exaggerated his struggles.
If you find yourself changing your evaluation of a player significantly based on an 85 plate appearance sample, it’s probably best to re-evaluate your process. We indeed learn more about every player every day but I’m inclined to believe the largest sample size we have – his college performance and associated underlying data – and more or less disregard the results that arrived while adjusting to three new teams within weeks of each other.
Crews has nearly everything fantasy players covet. His situation is less attractive than those of Langford, Caminero, Holliday, and Chourio, and his debut didn’t live up to the expectations that were set for him, but he’s still an elite fantasy prospect.
7. Evan Carter, OF, Texas Rangers
Age: 20 Level(s): CPX, AA, AAA Height: 6’2 Weight: 190 lbs Bats/Throws: L/R
Why he’s here:
Carter featured at 13th on my post draft prospect rankings that were released in late July before his debut with the Rangers. His time with the big league club solidified a lot of what was already known: he has remarkable zone awareness, makes contact in the zone at a solid clip, and has enough speed to impact the game on the basepaths and in the field. It’s a nice bonus to see skills translate against major league competition even if it occurred in a meager sample.
Most would be tempted to push Carter aggressively based on the success he had to conclude the regular season and during the Rangers’ World Series run, but his performance was not without some red flags. He struck out in 32% of his plate appearances after promotion as a byproduct of his zone contact rate shrinking to 75% from 91% in Triple-A. He found difficulty against both breaking pitches and lefties, famously going 010 against southpaws at the big-league level after struggling to contend with them in both 2022 and 2023. He ultimately outperformed his xWOBA by nearly a full 100 points.
These are not irreparable issues. It’s important to note he’s only recently turned 21 years old and the paint is far from dry on his profile. He has the frame, pedigree, and underlying skill set to be a strong fantasy asset for many years, but there are more apparent warning signs for Carter than there are for the players that precede him.
Carter has the strappings of an excellent points league player. His discernment maximizes his ability to do damage and provides floor in the event of a slump. His team context is stellar. He can likely be moved for more than he’s valued here based simply on his performance on the biggest stage in a very small sample. Shrewd managers will take advantage of the disconnect between his most likely outcome and the return he is probable to fetch.
8. Walker Jenkins, OF, Minnesota Twins
Age: 18 Level(s): CPX, A Height: 6’3 Weight: 210 lbs Bats/Throws: L/R
Why he’s here:
As a North Carolina prep, Jenkins struck fear into opposing coaches such that he was the recipient of the Bonds treatment on more than one occasion in his final high school circuit run. The Twins opted for him with the fifth pick after the top three collegiate players in the class came off the board and the Tigers selected Max Clark. He had only been available primarily because of the hamate injury that held him out from competition throughout the early summer and led to fewer live scouting looks.
Jenkins has the best combination of hit and power of any prep player in the 2023 draft class. His smooth lefty swing is quiet and concise and he doesn’t have to sacrifice power to preserve his mechanics. He’s already big and is still filling out which should portend further power gains as he progresses through the minor league ranks. The prevailing thought is that his above-average speed should remain at least average as he grows, though his fantasy value is tied largely to the stick and not his legs. As an advanced high school pick, Jenkins should not be subject to the typical lengthy incubation period most teens require before debuting with the big league club.
He’s drawn Larry Walker comps for his size and handedness, and while comps can be dangerous, he has a prototypical offensive skill set for a corner outfielder. His short post-draft sample was impressive, though his exit velocities didn’t wow immediately which may be a lingering after-effect of his hand injury.
High school draftees are a notoriously difficult demographic to pin down. Development is not linear and placing tool grades on prep hit and power is uniquely challenging due to a lack of underlying data combined with vast disparities in quality of pitching. Jenkins and Clark were valued similarly in my post-draft top 100, but Jenkins has separated himself as the clear top offensive talent from the high school ranks. Jenkins would be a first-overall candidate in most years but this class happened to include three of the best collegiate prospects of the last several cycles.
9. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks
Age: 20 Level(s): AA, AAA, MLB Height: 6’1 Weight: 190 lbs Bats/Throws: R/R
Why he’s here:
An early-season slump in May that produced a .188/.290/.300 slash line masks what was otherwise an outright dominant campaign from Jordan Lawlar. Sure, it came in the notoriously hitter-friendly Pacific Coast and Texas leagues, but his under-the-hood metrics took a step forward from 2022 both in terms of contact ability and power output. He racked up 20 home runs and 36 stolen bases in 40 attempts over 105 games.
Drafted sixth overall as the third prepster (and second high school shortstop) off the board in 2021, Lawlar has blossomed into a very promising offensive talent and reached the Majors after just 207 games in the minors. He suffered a labrum tear in his left shoulder after recording a measly six plate appearances following the draft and later missed time due to a fractured scapula resulting from a hit-by-pitch. He came back healthy in 2022 and has remained so through the conclusion of this year, allowing him to display his tools without interruption.
Lawlar has demonstrated proficiency against fastballs, including high-velocity fastballs, but exhibits some difficulties with chase on breaking pitches. It’s probable that he experiences choppy waters early in his major league tenure (beyond the minuscule 34 plate appearance sample we already have) as a result. His athleticism provides ceiling potential commensurate with his draft pedigree.
Lawlar profiles strongest in rotisserie formats where his stolen base impact is felt fully, but with the gulf in value between points and roto formats dissipating under new rule changes he’s very attractive regardless of league settings. It’s unclear whether he’ll start next season with Arizona despite making his debut late in 2023 and he may not return value immediately, but it’s enticing to imagine him alongside Corbin Carroll atop the lineup in short order.
10. Jasson Dominguez, OF, New York Yankees
Age: 20 Level(s): AA, AAA, MLB Height: 5’9 Weight: 190 lbs Bats/Throws: S/R
Why he’s here:
The Jasson Dominguez story has been told a thousand times over: the prince who was promised, the overrated bust, the youngster making surprisingly easy work of Double- and Triple-A competition, and his latest chapter as the late-season spark of hope in what was otherwise a lost season in New York. It’s supremely unfortunate that he suffered a torn UCL in September and was forced to undergo an internal brace procedure projected to hold him out for nine or ten months.
What Dominguez accomplished in 2023 is worth celebrating, narratives aside. He won’t turn 21 until February of 2024 and nearly went 2040 in 577 plate appearances across Double-A, Triple-A, and MLB. He’s better as a lefty but has been passable against southpaws in the right-handed batter’s box while exhibiting plate discipline and zone contact proficiency from both sides. His value as a runner is often underrated simply because he doesn’t look like he should be able to move as well as he does, and while stolen bases aren’t quite as valuable in points formats, they proved to be a reliable scoring source as a result of the league-wide attempt rate spiking in 2023.
Dominguez featured at 39th on my post-draft list before his blistering July and August. He moves up in the wake of several graduations and after seeing all of his tools coalesce into surface performance against advanced competition.
He will never be what Yankees fans unwisely preordained him to be, and that’s okay. He’s still developing, performing well, and has the peripheral metrics to support it. His home park is a plus that gets washed out a bit by his UCL injury, but he should pay dividends when healthy.
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