The Dynasty Digest: September 9, 2024

Chris breaks down live looks plus other top performers from the weekends action.

Live Looks

Hagen Smith, LHP, CHW, 21, A+

Smith pitched just two innings in his third pro start after being drafted fifth overall in the 2024 MLB Draft. It was Smith’s shortest start of his early pro career, tossing just two innings in which he allowed two earned runs and struck out two batters.

Cruising through the first inning, Smith faced the minimum, striking out Justin Reimer and Miguel Bleis swinging and getting Zach Erhard to fly out to right. A nine-pitch battle started his second inning, which ended in a single on a grounder up the middle before a flare into left field put a second hitter on base. With visible frustration, Smith then issued a four-pitch walk that loaded the bases. Two runs came into score before Smith got out of the inning.

His fastball sat in the 94-96 range, generating 14-15 inches of IVB from a 5’7” release height, getting 13 inches of horizontal movement. The pitch was effective, and he missed bats when he located it well. There were times when he missed his spots, which is when he was hit around. Maybe it is fatigue from a long season or just adjusting to pro ball, but the command was inconsistent.

Smith’s slider morphed into a cutter at times, with some having -5 inches of IVB, while others having shorter horizontal and 4 inches of IVB. You can see in the video below where some had longer sweeping action, and he used the pitch efficiently against lefties and righties. The slider sat in the lower 80s while the cutter was 85-86.

Smith did throw two changeups, sitting around 90 mph. The pitch showed good carry, having 11 inches of IVB and playing pretty well off the fastball before diving off with 15 inches of fading action.

At the end of the day, you can certainly see the stuff. Smith threw a nasty splitter at Arkansas that he did not feature in this start. There has always been a slight concern after he walked over ten percent of batters he faced at Arkansas, and in this start, he was below a 60 percent strike rate.

With the complete arsenal and enough strikes, there is SP2 upside here. Smith could move fast next year if all goes well, and I would bet on him starting the 2025 season in Double-A.

Nelly Taylor, OF, BOS, 21, A+

Taylor’s numbers don’t look great on the surface at Single-A Salem, especially considering he was a 2023 college draftee who was older than the league average age. It feels to me like one of the cases where the slash line does not matter all that much.

Taylor is a good athlete, standing at 6’0”/180, and has good speed. On Tuesday night, I clocked him at an above-average home-to-first time on a sprint. Minor League stolen base numbers can sometimes be deceptive, but not here. His 33 are a product of good speed.

Taylor blasted his eighth home run of the year on Saturday, a moonshot that traveled 406 feet and left the bat with an exit velocity north of 108 mph. While eight home runs may not jump off the page, he does have 26 doubles and three triples. The underlying data shows Taylor can hit the ball hard as he has run a 90th percentile exit velocity near 105 mph, a pretty impressive mark. If Taylor makes enough contact, there is a fun power and speed upside to dream on.

Casey Saucke, OF, CHW, 21, A+

A three-year letterman at powerhouse Virginia, Saucke was selected in the fourth round of the 2024 MLB Draft by the White Sox. The org sent him straight to High-A Winston Salem, where he has held his own. Considering Saucke was still 20 years old at the time of the draft, he was one of the younger three-year college players drafted.

Saucke enjoyed a major power breakout at Virginia this season, bashing 14 home runs after hitting 11 total in his first two seasons. Pair that with 18 doubles and a .344/.407/.578 slash, and you earn yourself a solid payday.

The power outbreak at Virginia was real, backed by a strong 92 mph average exit velocity and a 108 mph 90th percentile EV that ranked 95th percentile among all college hitters. Saucke did damage against fastballs, but did show some concerning whiff against breakers, something to keep an eye on.

Saucke looked the part in my live looks this week, having a physical 6’3”/210 lb frame. He was very good in all three of my looks this week, collecting eight hits and hitting the ball hard to all parts of the field.

In a deeper FYPD, Saucke is a name to keep an eye on.

Yordanny Monegro, RHP, BOS, 21, A+

Monegro’s 39-inning scoreless streak came to an end on Saturday as he allowed two earned runs in five innings but gave up just two hits while striking out seven. The damage all came in the fourth inning as Monegro issued a walk and a double to start the inning. He issued three walks in the start.

Prior to the start, you would have to go back to July 2nd to find the last time Monegro allowed an earned run. Over his final 44 innings of the season, Monegro finishes with a 0.41 ERA and 54 strikeouts to 14 walks.

Monegro’s fastball worked in the 94-96 mph range, and he is using more of a sinker now than a four-seam, which actually suits his arsenal much better. The new split-change was nasty, sitting at 86-89 mph, and while the shape was not always consistent, it generated the most whiffs of any of his offerings.

He also worked both his upper-80s slider and his upper-70s 12-6 curve. What I love about Monegro is that he is confident working backward in counts. He will throw any pitch at any time, and you never know what you are going to get. The upside is there for Monegro to be a mid-rotation arm, but he has a lot of work to do.

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