The Dynasty Digest: September 16, 2024

Chris breaks down all of Sunday's action.

Just one league remains in regular season as Triple-A enters his final week. Playoffs for the lower three levels continue. Arizona Fall League rosters should be finalized this week. It is sad that the season is wrapping up, but the AFL might be my favorite time of the year.

Anyway, Sunday had a ton of great performances that are worth breaking down. From top prospects to “who is that?” Today’s report has everything you need to know.

MiLB Hitting

Owen Caissie, OF, CHC, 22, AAA

Spending the entire season at Triple-A and spending the majority of the year as a 21-year-old, Caissie has good results. After a four-hit performance on Sunday that ended a triple shy of the cycle, Caissie now has a .276/.375/.481 with 19 home runs and 51 extra-base hits. The results have been solid but under the hood, things have really stood out.

Caissie’s 90th percentile of 107 mph is in the upper tier of Triple-A hitters, and he pairs it with a solid average exit velocity of 89.6 mph. He hits the ball at ideal angles often and has shown passable contact rates. Sure, a 68 percent overall mark is a little below what we would like to see, but for a bigger hitter with long levers, it is passable and actually much improved from last year in Double-A.

If Caissie can take one more step forward with contact in 2025, he could make a big impact having good OBP skills, and 25 home run power.

Matt Shaw, INF, CHC, 22, AAA

After a slow start, Shaw steadily improved all year. The Southern League has played weird this year, to say the least, and Shaw put up a 148 wRC+ there. After four hits and a home run on Sunday, Shaw has a 143 wRC+ in Triple-A where he has a .296/.382/.565 slash. Shaw has a combined .283/.375/.493 slash between both levels with 21 home runs and 29 stolen bases.

Since the All-Star break, Shaw is slashing an impressive .339/.413/.612 with 11 home runs and 21 extra-base hits. He has struck out in just 16 percent of his plate appearances. Shaw has made great contact all year and has posted pretty strong exit velocity data. The 90th percentile exit velocity has approached 106 in Triple-A, and he pairs it with a near 91 mph average exit velocity.

There is a strong quality of contact paired with solid contact skills. Shaw has proved he is ready for the Majors.

Kevin Alcantara, OF, CHC, 22, AAA

After spending the majority of the year in Double-A, Alcantara has gotten the bump to Triple-A and has performed quite well in his 29 games there. The Cubs Triple-A team was on fire yesterday, and on top of Shaw and Caissie’s performance, Alcantara homered and added a single and double. He now has hits in six straight games and has the slash up to .292/.375/.481 in Triple-A with five home runs and stolen bases a piece.

Contact has always been a bit of a question mark, though it has improved throughout the last couple of years. Hovering around the 71 percent mark this year, Alcantara looks to run contact rates near the league average. Alcantara hits the cover off the ball, having an average exit velocity north of 92 mph and a 90th percentile of 106 mph.

In addition to the strikeouts, Alcantara hits the ball on the ground at a high rate. This year, his air percentage sits at just 47 percent. If Alcantara can find more loft and get to more home run power, there is an intriguing power and speed blend.

Spencer Jones, OF, NYY, 23, AA

Jones is one of the more polarizing players in prospect circles, with intriguing tools but major whiff issues. Homering on Sunday, Jones has now been on base in eight straight games as he looks to end his season on a high note. Since the All-Star break, Jones is slashing .294/.367/.529 with seven home runs and 27 extra base hits. Everything sounds great, but Jones is still striking out over 36 percent of the time in that span with a sub-60 percent contact rate.

Jones has true 70-grade power. Few can match the kind of exit velocities he puts up. The speed you can argue is above-average or better and Jones gets faster over long distances thanks to his long legs and strides. The question will be, can Jones make enough contact to be a big leaguer and right now I am not sure if he will.

Peyton Eeles, 2B, MIN, 24, AAA

Standing at 5’5”, Eeles seems like the improbable big leaguer, but right now, Eeles is on the cusp of making his MLB debut. After four seasons at Cedarville University, Eeles transferred to Coastal Carolina for his final year of eligibility, during which he posted an impressive .374/.500/.492 slash with four home runs and 17 doubles. While he posted well below average exit velocities, the contact skills were plus. That has carried over to pro ball.

After beginning the year in independent ball, Eeles signed with the Twins and quickly ascended to Triple-A. Between three levels and 435 plate appearances, Eeles has a .311/.390/.437 slash with nine home runs, and 35 stolen bases.

Running a contact rate near 86 percent this year and a chase rate just north of 20 percent, Eeles has already demonstrated plus contact and plate discipline. The power is more of a question mark, having an average exit velocity of 85 mph, but he has shown a respectable max of 107 mph. Hitting a ton of ground balls also limits the output so the fantasy production is in question, but Eeles looks like he will make his MLB debut soon.

MiLB Pitching

Jackson Rutledge, RHP, WSH, 25, AAA

It feels like a lifetime ago when Rutledge was selected in the first round by the Nationals. While it was just 2019, it has been a long road and an up-and-down career for Rutledge, who has shown flashes of looking like a Major League starter at times. Sunday was one of those performances. While he did allow four walks, Rutledge struck out eight batters across seven scoreless innings with just two hits allowed. It was only the second time Rutledge has pitched more than five innings this season without allowing a run.

Generating an impressive 21 whiffs on the start, Rutledge mixed his arsenal well, throwing five pitch types, all at least 11 percent each. The four-seam was the dominant pitch of the day, generating eight whiffs, good for a 53 percent mark.

Rutledge’s fastball sits in the 94-96 range with good carry and horizontal movement. Often time the ability to locate it is what hurts him and he does not live in the zone often enough with the pitch. He also mixes in an upper-80s cutter and a sinker that lives in the same velocity band as the four-seam.

From a secondary standpoint, Rutledge utilizes a slider with good depth and a shorter horizontal break. He then hits you with a mid-80s splitter that gets late dive and run, missing bats at a high clip.

If Rutledge can find a touch of command, there is a chance there is a backend MLB starter here.

Chad Patrick, RHP, MIL, 26, AAA

Is Chad Patrick on the verge of making an impact in the Brewers rotation? After spending time with both Arizona and Oakland’s organizations last year, Patrick found a home in Milwaukee, where he has posted a 2.95 ERA across 131.1 innings with Triple-A Nashville. On Sunday, Patrick turned in his best start of the year and maybe a career as he struck out 12 batters across six scoreless innings without issuing a walk. It is not often we see 12-strikeout performances from a pitcher who generates just 13 whiffs, but that was the case here.

Patrick is a cutter first arm, using it nearly 40 percent of the time to pair with a 30 percent usage on his four-seam fastball. The cutter sits around 87 mph with high carry and four inches of horizontal movement. He throws it from a 5’6” release height with just six feet of extension. The four-seam sits around 93 mph with average IVB and six inches of horizontal movement.

The changeup is his most used secondary at 12 percentage points. Living in the upper-80s there is not a ton of separation from his fastball, but it does come with decent arm-side movement. The slider has the highest whiff rate of any pitch in his arsenal, but is used just eight percent of the time. It sits around 85 mph with six inches of sweeping action.

Patrick throws strikes at an above-average clip, but his CSW of 27.5 percent is actually well below average. He misses bats at a slightly above-average. It is an interesting profile, and Patrick has some traits of a number five starter type, especially given his ability to eat innings. Will the arsenal work against MLB hitting? That is still to be determined.

Trevor Martin, RHP, TB, 23, AA

It seems like Martin ran out of steam down the stretch this season but that does not negate how good he has been all year. He allowed three earned runs across four innings with three walks on Sunday, but Martin struck out six and generated 14 whiffs.

Before the bump to Double-A, Martin posted a 2.88 ERA across 72 innings in High-A. The Double-A line is not appealing, but for the most part, the results were good outside of a couple of blow-up starts. The 6’5” righty was a dominant college closer who the Rays are developing as a starter, and the results are very promising.

Martin gets a ton of ride on his fastball sitting in the 92-94 range, and he pairs it with a low-80s slider. The changeup is still a massive work in progress and could be the sticking point for Martin being a starter. For now, he remains an underrated pitching prospect with some potential upside.

C.J. Culpepper, RHP, MIN, 22, AA

One of the more underrated pitching prospects in baseball, Culpepper has continued to have a strong season on Sunday as he struck out five across five scoreless innings with just three hits allowed. Missing over two months with injury, Culpepper is at just 58 innings, but has a strong 3.55 ERA on the year with 64 strikeouts and 18 walks.

He has flown under the radar due to the amount of success that other Twins pitching prospects have had, but it just goes to show you the strong development they have with arms. Culpepper throws trikes at an above-average clip and has shown good bat missing ability.

Mixing both a two-seam and four-seam fastball, with the four-seam sitting near 94 and the two-seam between 92 and 93 mph. The movement profiles differ as the four-seam has a fairly low ride but high spin, and the sinker averaged over 13 inches of horizontal movement. Culpepper even mixed in a cutter that sat 91-92 with short horizontal break. 

The changeup runs a similar movement profile to the sinker but with only five mph of velocity separation. The sweeper is Culpepper’s best pitch, sitting 83 mph with nearly 14 inches of horizontal movement. The curveball is thrown around 80 mph with a ton of downward movement but also 10 inches of sweep.

Trystan Vrieling, RHP, NYY, 23, AA

Vrieling, a former 2022 third-round pick, has been an injured arm that has been unable to showcase his talent level until this year. If there is one thing Vrieling has excelled at this year, it is eating innings. In 25 starts this year, Vrieling has pitched 147.1 innings. In the process, he has a 4.58 ERA, and while there have been some ups and downs, there have been way more good starts than bad. In fact, in 16 starts this year, Vrieling has allowed two earned runs or less.

The fastball sat 92-95 mph while also throwing a cutter, slider, and changeup. The cutter is a new addition in 2024 which has allowed the entire arsenal to play up. Since the start of August, Vrieling has a 2.23 ERA across 40.1 innings, ending the season on a high note heading into 2025.