The Dynasty Digest: September 12, 2024

Chris breaks down the top performers from MLB

Happy Thursday everyone! Another dominant outing from Bowden Francis that I discussed to start the article. Is Ketel Marte dynasty 2B1? Is Carter Jensen the most underrated catching prospect? I break down a ton of players from the Majors and Minors in today’s edition of the Dynatsy Digest!

MLB Performers

Bowdern Francis, RHP, TOR

Francis did it again, he took yet another no-hitter into the ninth inning. On Wednesday, he did it with just one strikeout. Francisco Lindor ruined it with a big home run in the ninth inning.

Since the pitch mix changed in August, Bowden has been impressive. In 48 innings, he has struck out 46 batters and walked five while posting a 1.50 ERA. The profile does not come without concerns though, Bowden has allowed six home runs in seven starts and has a .093 BABIP and a 100 percent strand rate. Is regression coming? Probably. Is Bowden going to go really high in drafts next year? Again, probably so.

The success can be attributed to a change in his arsenal. Francis has curbed his curve usage, which was getting hit quite hard. He has upped the splitter usage by nearly 15 percentage points and the slider usage by nearly ten percentage points. The splitter has a 29 percent whiff rate in August and the slider an impressive 59 percent.

In the process, the fastball has played better, and the results have come. Maybe Francis is not an ace like the numbers he has put up this month, but I do think he can be a serviceable starter moving forward in 2025 and beyond.

Eugenio Suarez, 3B, ARI

Suarez is a certified second-half hitter and has been on a tear recently. On Wednesday he went four-for-four with two home runs and four runs scored, Suarez now has 18 second half home runs and 28 on the year. Over that span, he has posted an impressive .324/.362/.686 slash line.

After two straight 31 home run seasons between 2021 and 2022, Suarez hit just 22 last season in Seattle. At this point, Suarez should certainly jump that 31-home run mark with over two weeks left in the season.

Tommy Edman, 2B, LAD

Edman was part of the three-way trade at the deadline that sent Erick Fedde to St. Louis and a group of prospects to the White Sox. After missing nearly all of the season with a wrist injury, Edman finally returned on August 19 and has been really solid since.

For the second straight day on Wednesday, Edman has a two-home run game and has multi-hit games in four of his last five games. Edman is doing his typical thing and not walking much, but he is putting a ton of balls in play and has a .300/.321/.500 slash in 84 plate appearances. The hard-hit rate of 41.5 percent in the small sample would be a career-best mark, and Edman is making a ton of content.

Ketel Marte, 2B, ARI

After a three-for-four game with a home run on Wednesday, Marte is up to 31 home runs this year, just one off his career best, which he hit during the happy-fun ball year in 2019. During that season, Marte accumulated 628 plate appearances, this year just 517.

Marte is having a career year in his age-30 season, and it looks legit. His 53.8 percent hard-hit rate and 93.7 mph average exit velocity both are tops of the league, ranking 97th percentile among all hitters. Pair that with above-average contact rates, and it is no shock that Marte is slashing .295/.368/.557 on the year.

Is Marte the top second baseman for dynasty purposes? He just might be if we don’t include Mookie Betts in the discussion.

MiLB Hitters

Nick Yorke, 2B, PIT, 22, AAA

Yorke was traded from Boston to Pittsburgh at the trade deadline and has been on base in 30 of 35 games since joining the Pirates org. Making major strides this season, Yorke has positioned himself to be the Pirates Opening Day second baseman in 2025.

After a four-for-four day with a home run on Wednesday, Yorke is up to 12 home runs and 33 doubles on the year with a .307/.387/.458 slash line. The impressive season has also been backed by all the underlying data.

Yorke has made major strides in the power department, posting an average exit velocity north of 91 mph and a 90th percentile above 105 mph. Both of these marks show above-average power. Yorke pairs it with respectable contact rates, which have been strong as well, with an overall mark north of 79 percent and 87 percent in-zone.

Yorke knows the zone well and shows strong pitch recognition, not chasing often and having strong swing rates on pitches that he can drive. Yorke does not show major swing-and-miss issues against breaking balls either, with a contact rate of 74 percent, a pretty good mark for breaking balls.

Buy Yorke before the offseason, the jump in underlying data has been impressive this year and he looks legit.

Carter Jensen, C, KC, 21, AA

Jensen is one of the more underrated prospects in the Minors, especially among the catching crop. He homered for the second straight day on Wednesday and added three hits, finishing the day a triple shy of the cycle. Jensen now is up to 18 home runs on the year with a surprising 17 stolen bases. to pair with a .261/.363/.453 slash on the year.

To no shock, Jensen runs very low chase rates, given the high OBPs that he has consistently run. The contact rates are closer to average, but the quality of contact is really good. Jensen gets the ball in the air often and pulls it with authority. His barrel rates are really strong, and he hits the ball rather hard.

On top of that, Jensen is good behind the plate. He has caught over 27 percent of runners attempting to steal on him. I think Jensen is a player you want to buy into before 2025.

Justin Crawford, OF, PHI, 20, AA

Crawford extended his hit streak to eight games on Wednesday with a multi-hit performance while having a big home run, his ninth of the year. On the surface, Crawford looks like one of the best prospects in baseball, slashing .312/.360/.445 with nine home runs and 42 stolen bases. So why is he not in my top 100?

The issues in the profile are not related to contact skills, but rather the quality of contact. Crawford has an overall contact rate near 82 percent his year, which is a really strong mark and he has struck out in just 18.8 percent of plate appearances.

Some have questioned the power, but Crawford’s 90th percentile exit velocity is north of 104 mph, which is above MLB average. He also is a 70-grade runner. The tools are there if he can lift and pull the ball more often. 

The ground ball rate is down from 2023 but still sits north of 61 percent. Usually, anything near 50 percent is concerning. The pull rate is also an issue, sitting just north of 30 percent. When you factor in that Crawford chases nearly 35 percent of pitches out of the zone, there are some serious red flags here for me.

Max Acosta, SS, TEX, 21, AA

Acosta has quite an interesting path to get to where he is. After signing for $1.65 million back in July 2019, Acosta did not make his professional debut until June 2021 at the complex due to the pandemic. He also had thoracic outlet syndrome surgery which led to some struggles in 2022.

Spending the entire season as a 21 year old in Double-A, Acosta has not wowed but has been pretty solid. He collected three hits and homered on Wednesday, which was his third home run in the last five games. The slash sits at .280/.344/.417 with eight home runs and 32 extra-base hits.

Acosta has put up very strong contact rates throughout the year with a mark north of 80 percent. I still see some untapped power here as well and Acosta has stolen 25 bases in two straight seasons. There is some intruige here in deeper leagues.

MiLB Pitchers

Yu-Min Lin, LHP, ARI, 21, AA

I have remained lower on Lin than consensus throughout his career, especially after many pushed him into top 100s after his strong 2023. After dominating High-A, Lin was bumped to Double-A after the All-Star break, where he did show some struggles. Still, Lin posted a 3.86 ERA across 121 innings with 140 strikeouts to 48 walks for the 2023 season.

Spending the entire season at Double-A in 2024, Lin has a 4.28 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP. The strikeout rate has fallen to 21.7 percent, and the swinging strike rate is lower than in past seasons. He throws strikes at a league-average rate, but there are some other concerns.

The fastball sits in the 88-90 range which is a major red flag for me. For what its worth, the only starting pitchers to average sub-90 mph in the Majors this year are Kyle Hendricks, Dane Dunning, and Tyler Anderson. Can it work? Sure. But it is much harder to be successful with no velocity.

Lin does have a devastating changeup, which is his bread and butter, but having that as his only swing-and-miss pitch is an issue. The slider plays below average. In general, I am just concerned about the arsenal.

He did nearly go the distance on Wednesday, tossing eight innings with six strikeouts, earning him a spot in the report today. Lin allowed eight hits and three runs while walking one batter.

Mick Abel, RHP, PHI, 23, AAA

Abel’s falloff has been really hard to watch. The 2020 15th overall pick has shown some really good things in the past, but the 2024 season has been quite a struggle. Abel was even sent to the development list for a couple of weeks to work on some issues. Upon return in August, things have been better, but there are still concerns.

In Wednesday’s start, Abel struck out nine batters across four innings but did walk three batters and allowed a home run, giving up two earned runs on the start. That gives him eight walks in his last eight innings, which is a major concern.

The positive of the start was that Abel generated 13 whiffs on his four-seam fastball, which sat 95 mph. This is good news because the fastball velocity had really dipped in the first few months of the season. Last year, Abel sat in the 95-97 range, touching 101 mph.

I still think there are major reliever concerns here with Abel. The strike rate is below 60 percent, which is an issue, and Abel is not missing bats this year either. Still, 18 whiffs on Wednesday is encouraging and hopefully something to build on.

Cole Wilcox, RHP, TB, 25, AAA

Wilcox turned his best start of what has been a solid 2024 season as Wilcox is knocking on the door of an MLB debut. He tossed six scoreless innings, allowing just three hits and two walks, while striking out seven batters. Wilcox generated 15 whiffs, good for a 38 percent mark, and added 11 more called strikes while landing 60 percent of his pitches for strikes.

While the sinker is his most used pitch this season, Wilcox used is the least on Wednesday and led with his slider, throwing it 44 percent of the time. The slider sits in the mid-80s with almost a bullet type shape that has missed bats at a solid clip this year.

Wilcox’s fastball gets nice arm-side movement, averaging 16 or more inches regularly of arm-side movement, sitting in the 92-93 mph range. The changeup mimics it well, having only five mph of velocity separation, though, which I would like to see increase.

There are certainly some things to like about Wilcox. He throws strikes at a high clip and has three solid offerings. He could definitely be an MLB starter long-term. Even if it is an SP5, that will play.