The Dynasty Digest: June 12, 2024
Chris Clegg breaks down some live looks from yesterday plus all the happenings from around the league.
I always forget to provide the live look section when I do these and have gone to games the night before but there are some interesting players to talk about from last night’s Greenville-Asheville game.
I know it’s not always popular, but I always want to provide the whole picture on players. Last night, a good discussion in the Dynasty Dugout Discord about Brice Matthews made me really sit and think about this, as I was up most of the night with my two-week-old baby.
A scout once told me, “anyone can tell you what a player is good at, but less can tell you what they struggle with.” I try to provide both sides of the picture and maybe I am too harsh on the downside of some players, but I still think it is an important discussion.
Anyways, we will talk more about that in the player section. Let’s dive in.
Live Looks
Brice Matthews, SS/3B, HOU, 22, A+
Few minor league hitters are hotter than Brice Matthews right now. Since returning to Asheville from injury on June 1, he has 16 hits in eight games, including six home runs and a double. Pair that with five stolen bases and a .485/.575/1.061 slash and no hitter has garnered more buzz over the last week.
I was a big fan coming out of the draft given how good the collegiate data was. My report was this:
A patient hitter with a strong feel for the strike zone, Matthews chased less than 20 percent of pitches out of the zone at Nebraska in 2023.
During his final collegiate season, Matthews hit 20 home runs and stole 20 bases while slashing .359/.481/.723 and striking out just 20 percent of the time. He has exit velocities as high as 113 mph this year and is an excellent athlete. The 90th percentile exit velocity checked in with an impressive 109.4 mph 90th percentile exit velocity.
Matthews is an analytic darling who fits the Astros system well. While the contact was inconsistent in his debut in Single-A (70%), he is still a player that Astros fans should have plenty to look forward to with his power, speed, and athleticism.
After struggling in 2023 in his pro debut, slashing .217/.373/.367, the inconsistent contact worried me. I sat on his ranking pretty steadily before dropping him in my recent update that dropped May 31, just before he return to action.
It feels foolish now to have dropped him down, but I think the whole picture is important.
Matthews is a stellar athlete, and it is evident from the moment you see him in person and watch him run. He steals bases with ease, even though he did get caught stealing last night in my look. The power upside is there, but it is important to note that all six of his home runs have come in Asheville, which is the smallest park in the minors.
My biggest concern with Matthews is his contact ability. Last year in college he ran a 74 percent overall contact rate and an 80 percent in-zone rate which is below average, especially considering his league context. The overall contact rate this year is hovering around 64 percent and since returning from injury, closer to 69 percent.
Last night, I saw some struggles with breaking balls and splitters. He got eaten up several times with some rough swings. I will see him the rest of the week, so I should have a better picture of him by weeks end.
Still, Matthews reached base four times last night with two walks and two singles.
Luis Baez, OF, HOU, 20, A+
We have long loved Luis Baez at the Dynasty Dugout, and after he “struggled” in his brief Single-A cameo last year, I suggested buying the “dip” on him. He spent the offseason working hard, and the growth is evident so far this year.
He has a look about him and is quite physical. Listed at 6’1”/225, I would say he is probably taller. Despite the thick frame, he moved well and manned centerfield last night, and I thought he was pretty good out there.
Baez did strike out three times last night, but he roped a single that was smoked off the bat. On the year, he has a .292/.332/.481 slash line with nine home runs and five stolen bases. Considering he will spend the full season as a 20-year-old, I think he brings some impressive skills to the table and will likely only continue to improve.
Blake Wehunt, RHP, BOS, 23, A+
Wehunt made his second start in Greenville after being promoted last week. A fun arm with a great story, Wehunt who may have some legitimate upside as a pitcher while also being a chicken farmer. The 2023 9th rounder out of Kennesaw St. impressed me on the back fields at Spring Training with the ability to miss bats with his riding fastball that sat near the mid-90s. His sweepy slider reaches the mid-80s and has quite a long horizontal movement pattern. Wehunt also throws a splitter that when he snaps it off is a nasty pitch.
He pitched fairly well for the most part, striking out six over three innings with 10 whiffs, but two home runs led to four runs allowed and a shorter outing. After posting a 2.16 ERA across 33.1 innings in Single-A Salem, the first two starts in Greenville have left a little to be desired, but the stuff is good.
I would expect Wehunt to bounceback in his next start and get back on track where we know he can be. He remains a deep league target for dynasty purposes, but is someone to watch.
Miguel Bleis, OF, BOS, 20, A+
Bleis made his anticipated High-A debut on Tuesday and proceeded to go 0-5 at the plate. It was not all bad though. I clocked Bleis at 4.2 seconds home to first on a sprint which is a plus clock time and I thought Bleis looked good in centerfield. He made good reads and jumps and showed a big arm.
Leading into the High-A debut last night, Bleis was riding a 16-game hitting streak and, over that span, was slashing .313/.387/.493 with three home runs and three doubles. He has posted an exit velocity as high as 112.5 mph this year, and his contact rates have been close to the league average.
The offseason report during Spring Training after seeing him in Ft. Myers was this:
Bleis last played in a game last year on May 30 due to a shoulder injury. He spent ten months working out, with seven of those being full-go after surgery. He also mentioned it was the first time he really focused on working in the weight room. In the process, he hired a nutritionist to help him get on a diet and gain weight. Finally, we are talking about a player who was 19 years old the entire offseason; it is normal for him to keep growing and add weight.
The performance has been really good at the plate. On Tuesday, Bleis smoked two balls to dead center that went for hits and nearly left the yard. He faced Bailey Ober twice on Wednesday and smoked one to left field to begin the game before Ober got him the next time up with a slider.
The plate discipline skills have looked good with Bleis as he has worked counts better than he has in the past and taken some good walks. Is he likely to run higher chase rates? Yes, because he is aggressive. But that does not mean he can’t make up for it with zone contact. The power and speed will be the carrying tools, and the upside here is immense.
Bleis has immense upside and could still see his stock soar. I am excited to get more looks at him over this year.
James Hicks, RHP, HOU, 23, A+
This was the second start of Hicks’ that I have been at this year. He has put together a really strong season between four Single-A and seven High-A starts. Between those 47.2 innings, Hicks has a 2.45 ERA with 59 strikeouts and 12 walks.
He was not his best on Tuesday, allowing four earned runs across 4.2 innings pitched, giving up two home runs while striking out four. Hicks’ fastball sits in the 92-94 mph range. He misses the most bats with his slider in the low-80s with sweeping action. Hicks also mixes in a mid-80s changeup in the mid-80s that is mostly used against lefties.
Jhostynxon Garcia, OF, BOS, 21, A+
Garcia, better known as “The Password” thanks to some great people on Twitter like InsideFastball and Dukeswasmyguy, left the yard for the fifth time in 11 games since joining the Drive. He is up to 10 home runs on the year in 35 games.
Garcia has easy power and controls the barrel well. He lifts the ball with ease and rarely puts the ball on the ground. The contact rates are easily plus or better. He has quite a filled-out frame, and I wonder if he will be able to handle the outfield long term. He DH’d last night coming off an off day on Monday, but that was more likely due to Miguel Bleis joining the team.
The profile is a lot of fun and the power outburst this year has been a welcomed sight after he hit just four last year. I am not going all in yet, but Garcia is one to watch closely.
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