The Dynasty Digest: June 10, 2024

Chris Clegg breaks down all of yesterday's minor league action.

Happy Monday, it is a good day to get back to some Minor League action after updating our dynasty and prospect rankings. Be sure to check those out!

MiLB Pitchers

Cade Smith, RHP, NYY, 22, A

I have written about nearly every Cade Smith start to this point. He has been quite exceptional to this point and probably is too advanced for Single-A as a college arm out of Mississippi State. He turned in what was probably his best start of his young career on Sunday, generating 23 whiffs on the way to an 11 strikeout performance in five innings of work.

Smith walked just two batters and the only damage he allowed came courtesy of a Brandon Winokur home run. The whiff rate checked in at an absurd 68 percent clip and his CSW of 45 percent was also elite.

His slider generated 15 of the 23 whiffs and the curveball had a 100 percent whiff rate on three swings. The fastball sits around 93 with close to league average IVB, but has nice running life on occasion. When he locates it up, he gets whiffs.

The slider is more of a gyro shape with shorter horizontal and the curveball having more of a two-plane break with nice depth. As with all the college arms pitching in the Florida State League, I am hesitant to form too strong of opinions. But if Smith moves to High-A and keeps performing, he could really move up boards.

Riley Gowens, RHP, CHW, 24, A+

I saw Gowens several weeks ago when Winston Salem was in Greenville and came away extremely impressed as he struck out 11 batters across 7 innings. Outside of two separate five earned run outings this year, Gowens has been stellar and that was the case again on Sunday as he tossed eight scoreless innings with six strikeouts, zero walks, and just two hits allowed.

The Braves 2023 ninth-round pick was one of the pieces that was sent to Chicago in the Aaron Bummer trade, and it looks like one the Braves might regret. Gowens works out of the stretch, throwing a low-to-mid 90s fastball with riding action and arm-side run. The mid-80s slider has shorter horizontal movement, but it is the last biting action that keeps hitters on their toes. The changeup was a pretty devastating pitch, showing late movement and a ton of arm-side run.

Gowens generated 16 whiffs on the start, but landed plenty of pitches for called strikes too. He needed 86 pitches to complete eight innings, landing over 76 percent of them for strikes. Keep a close eye on Gowens. He is a fun arm.

Zebby Matthews, RHP, MIN, 24, AA

Ho hum. Matthews is elite and continued to look elite on Sunday. Matthews did what he has done all year and pitched like a top 100 arm. He tossed seven scoreless innings with just three hits and zero earned runs allowed. To no surprise, he did not issues a walk. This pushes his total to 63 strikeouts and just two walks on the year in 52.1 innings. Matthews threw strikes at a 77 percent clip, pushing his season total to an elite 69 percent.

Across those innings this year, Matthews has a 1.38 ERA and a league leading 0.69 WHIP. Matthews has added multiple ticks to the fastball this year, sitting in the mid-90s more often than not, and has added a sweeper. The new sweeper and increased velocity has allowed the entire arsenal to play up, and Matthews has not sacrificed any command in the process.

Matthews has a durable 6’5” frame and has shown the ability to be efficient and pitch deep into games, with an average of over six innings per start since May. He is likely to be pitching in Minnesota soon.

Ky Bush, LHP, CHW, 24, AA

A former 45th overall pick in the 2021 draft, Bush has had an up and down career to this point, but has seemed to unlock something with the White Sox. Before you laugh, the White Sox brought in a new development team, especially on the pitching side and many of their arms have taken major steps forward.

After a disastrous 2023 in which Bush posted a 6.91 ERA across 71.2 Double-A innings, he looks like a new arm in 2024. On Sunday, Bush tossed six innings with just one hit and zero earned runs allowed. He did walk three and only struck out two, but still it was a solid performance.

The season-long ERA sits at 1.98, and Bush is striking out 27 percent of hitters. One of the reasons for the newfound success is his fastball. After sitting at 92 mph last year, Bush is consistently in the 94-96 range this season.

The slider and curveball both flash plus pitches and miss bats with ease. His strike rate is right at the league average of 63 percent, but the nearly 17 percent swinging strike rate is very strong.

Buy back in on Ky Bush.

Aidan Curry, RHP, TEX, 21, A+

I am a big fan of Aidan Curry and even though the 2024 season has not gone like he has planned, Sunday was a chance to kick start his season with his best start of the year. Curry tossed six innings of one-run ball with the only damage coming via a Cutter Coffey sixth inning home run.

Curry generated ten whiffs and 14 called strikes in the start, good for a 28 percent CSW and 60 percent strike rate on the day. On the year, he has actually had an above average swinging strike and CSW rate and the strike rate has sat closer to average.

The fastball has ticked up a notch, sitting in the mid-90s, and plays up even more due to the big extension that he gets from his 6’5” frame. His slider plays as a plus pitch, sitting in the low-80s with a big two-plane break, showing lots of depth and sweep. He gets chase and whiffs on the pitch consistently. The changeup is more inconsistent but shows late fade and tumble, which plays well against lefties. 

MiLB Hitters

Jasson Dominguez, OF, NYY, 21, AAA

Few hitters have been hotter than The Martian in all of baseball. He collected four hits in five tries on Sunday which included a 109.8 mph home run while adding another batted ball at 109.5 mph. On his rehab stint in 19 games, Dominguez has a .380/.429/.690 with six home runs and two stolen bases in 19 games.

The batted ball data is absurd. His 90th percentile exit velocity sits north of 108 mph overall and near 110 mph in Triple-A. Yes, it is just a small sample of 19 Minor League games and Dominguez has yet to finish a game, which is a big step before being back in the Bronx. But, he is getting close and I think we are within a week of him being back in a Yankees jersey.

Justin Crawford, OF, PHI, 20, A+

Crawford collected four hits on Sunday which included a double and a home run, his fourth of the year. with all singles but in the process raised his slash to .318/.388/.432. Crawford’s four home runs in 215 plate appearances this year is already above his total of three last year in 390 plate appearances.

The issues in the profile are not related to contact skills, but rather the quality of contact. There is some power in the profile and room to add to his slender frame, but Crawford’s 90th percentile exit velocity was already north of the MLB average at 103.6, which does give some excitement if he can pull the ball and lift it more. Crawford hits a lot of balls to the opposite field too often and pounds it into the ground. 

While the ground ball rate is lower this year, it is still at 59.5 percent, which is not good at all. Usually, I worry about hitters with a ground ball rate north of 50 percent, so Crawford’s ground ball issues do give me major pause with how we handle him as a fantasy asset. The pull rate of 28.2 percent is one of the lowest rates in the minors and the opposite field percentage of 48.1 percent is bad.

Max Clark, OF, DET, 19, A

When you talk about a five-tool player, Clark comes to mind, playing strong centerfield, possessing a solid arm, making contact at a high rate, being a 70-runner, and flashing good power. At the moment, Clark’s worst grade is his power, which is still average to above average. That speaks to the kind of player he can be. There is some projection in his 6’1”/190-pound frame, and I would not be surprised to see Clark tap into more power. 

The swing generates line drives and sprays the ball to all fields well, which bodes well for his future batting average. He controls the barrel well through the zone and shows a very advanced hit tool for his age. In a small sample in his pro career he did post some solid exit velocities, giving hope he can get to average game power.

The box score stats have not looked great to this point and have caused people to push him down their rankings, but everything under the hood looks good. On Sunday, Clark hit his first home run since May 21 and had three hits on the game. The slash line currently sits at .271/.377/.367 with three home runs and 16 stolen bases.

We are looking at very strong contact rates at Clark sits at 79 percent overall and 91 percent in-zone with a very low 20 percent chase rate. You definitely want to see his average exit velocity of 86 mph and the 90th percentile of 102 mph trend up, but Clark is still young at 19 years old.

I would buy low on Clark if you can.

Brandon Winokur, OF/SS, MIN, 19, A

Cade Smith dominated on Sunday and the only blemish was a Winkour’s fifth home run of the season. He ended the day with three hits, including two hard-hit balls, topping out at 104.5 mph.

Having been heavily on my radar since last summer’s draft, Winokur really stood out to me when I saw him on the backfields during Spring Training. He is a physically gifted 6’6”/210 athlete and has very loud tools. He hits the ball hard but also posts high-end run times for his size while having room to fill out.

Things have been trending in the right direction for Winokur this year after a slow start to the season and he now has a .258/.336/.419 slash with five home runs and 12 stolen bases. The strike out rate month over month looks like 31.7 percent in April, 26.9 percent in May, and 17.9 percent in June.

Winokur’s stock is moving up.

Colton Ledbetter, OF, TB, 22, A+

Ledbetter is lighting right now and just had his second straight multi-home run game on Sunday. Yes, the team was playing in Asheville, one of the most home run friendly parks in the minors, but still, it was a much needed last two days for Ledbetter.

It has been an up and down season for him so far, as Ledbetter has a .236/.319/.461 with eight home runs and 12 stolen bases. Things are trending in the right direction though as Ledbetter has four multi-hit games in his last nine.

Ledbetter has actually struggled with contact overall this year after exhibiting strong skills last year in college. Ledbetter chased less than 15 percent of pitches out of the zone and posted an 83 percent overall clip and 91 percent zone contact in 2023. His power is more to the pull side, but he has a frame to tap into more. Ledbetter posted a 104 mph 90th percentile with aluminum last year, but a disappointing 86 mph average exit velocity, which gave me some pause. But after seeing him and getting some exit velocities this year, I do think he has tapped into a little more power.

Here is a video of him obliterating a 111 mph home run earlier in the year.

Dylan Beavers, OF, BAL, 22, AA

Beavers is a player I have long loved and thought got quite underrated in the mix of talented Orioles prospects. In the offseason I wrote:

Beavers made major strides in 2023 in the contact department leading to a drastic increase in batting average while also showcasing power and speed. The contact skills made a massive jump as Beavers posted a contact rate of 81 percent, up from 74 percent in 2022, showing substantial progress.

As the season progressed, Beavers got better as he found his groove and swing. Across his first 193 plate appearances, he hit just .214 with a .664 OBP, but once June hit, Beavers also did.

Over his last 333 PAs of the season, he slashed .332/.431/.531 with eight home runs and 15 stolen bases. In the process he walked nearly as much as he struck out and put up a 161 wRC+.

Beavers has sneaky power and hits a ton of line drives. With a little more lift he could easily become a 20-25 home run bat that steals 20 bases.

On Sunday, Beavers mashed a home run while continuing his strong, but underrated season. He has eight home runs with ten stolen bases with a .260/.364/.457 slash line. He is a patient hitter who picks his spots well which is shown by a low chase rate and his 14 percent walk rate. The contact rate of 75 percent is above-average and is actually trending up. That mark sits at 78 percent since May 1.

Beavers looks like a top 50 prospect to me.