The Dynasty Digest: August 19, 2024

Chris breaks down all the action from the DSL to MLB.

Happy Monday. It is the last full week of the DSL season which is quite sad. The minor league season is winding down quickly and before we know it, the Arizona Fall League will be here. The schedule was officially announced and names for rosters will begin to be leaked soon. I have already heard a few names that I am excited about. Anyways, let’s get to Sunday’s breakdown.

MiLB Hitters

Bo Davidson, OF, SF, 22, A

Bo who? No its just Chanteyon Ajria Davidson, an undrafted outfielder out of Caldwell Community College in Hudson, NC. The 6’2”/205 lb outfielder is what you truly call a pop-up prospect.

After starting the year in Single-A, Davidson struggled and eventually rehabbed at the complex where he got his confidence back. Since returning to Single-A San Jose, Davidson has hits in 19 of 23 games and has an impressive .474/.598/.923 slash line. Over that torrid span, Davidson has seven home runs, eight doubles, and three triples. In the process, the strikeout rate has been cut to 17.6 percent.

The contact rate and in-zone miss might be the biggest question in the profile. But in his 23-game return, the overall mark has jumped to 75.4 percent. The chase rate is quite low, as you might expect, and the exit velocities are pretty strong.

The 22-year-old has begun to lift the ball more and has shown power to all fields. When he makes contact, he does damage, backed by a solid xwOBAcon.

Sure, Davidson likely needs a promotion to High-A to end the year, but we cannot simply ignore this run. Davidson looks like a true diamond in the rough here and a legit prospect. I would not go too crazy on him, but he could be a top-20 prospect in the Giants system.

Jacob Melton, OF, HOU, 23, AAA

Is Melton still a top-100 prospect? If you look at the surface numbers you would probably argue against it. After seeing him a ton last year, the report was glowing and it was shown in the performance as Melton hit 23 home runs and stole 46 bases. This year, he has missed time due to injury and in 335 plate appearances, Melton has just 13 home runs and 24 stolen bases. The slash line, a mid .238/.305/.428.

On Sunday, Melton blasted two home runs that left the bat at 111.1 and 102.6 mph, respectively. The underlying data looks pretty good on the year too with solid exit velocities and above-average contact rates.

It may be a good opportunity to buy low on Melton as he is quite the athlete and plays a strong outfield which means the floor is much higher for him as a Major Leaguer. I might actually call Melton a good stash ending the year as someone who could break camp with the Astros in 2025 if he has a strong spring.

Drake Baldwin, C, ATL, 23, AAA

Baldwin has fully broken out this year and is no longer underrated. He collected two hits, which included a home run, to bring his total to 12 on the year. Looking at his line in Double-A Mississippi may lead you to think his performance in Triple-A is a mirage, but actually, this has a lot to do with how pitcher-friendly the Southern League and Trustmark Park really are.

Now, with 46 games under his belt in Triple-A, Baldwin is slashing .311/.429/.492 with eight home runs and doubles a piece. The contact skills have been plus or better all year, and the overall mark sits around 80 percent, with an in-zone mark north of 85 percent.

The power has been pretty impressive all year, too, with an average exit velocity north of 91 mph and the 90th percentile up over 107 mph. The bat is going to play, and Baldwin is actually pretty solid behind the dish, too. If Travis d’Arnuad is not back in Atlanta next year, Baldwin might be the backup to Sean Murphy. Or, as is the Atlanta way, he might be an offseason trade chip. Regardless, Baldwin has a legit bat.

Ian Petrutz, OF, STL, 21, A

Petrutz was a 12th-rounder in the 2024 draft and arguably has gotten off to as good of a start as any hitter from the class. After three more hits on Sunday, including a double, Petrutz now is slashing .396/.532/.521 with nine walks to four strikeouts. Sure, the extra base juice has not been there, but as a pure hitter, Petrutz has it.

The current exit velocity data is pretty poor in a small Single-A sample, with a 90th percentile exit velocity south of 100 mph and a max of 103, but the contact skills have been incredible as Petrutz checks in with an 85 percent contact rate and an in-zone mark north of 90 percent.

After spending two years at Maryland, Petrutz spent his junior season at Alabama where he walked more than he struck out and hit six home runs with a .321/.447/.479 slash.

Prospects Live analyst Jared Perkins seems to have nailed Petrutz as his favorite late round pick. In a deep FYPD, Petrutz seems like a good target.

Cooper Pratt, SS, MIL, 20, A+

Pratt turned 20 yesterday and gifted himself with a mammoth home run. Surprisingly, it was just his fifth on the year in 90 games. By looking at Pratt, you would probably assume he would have big-time power. It could be in there and could come out, but right now, Pratt’s exit velocities are actually well below average.

He is a good athlete and moves well for his 6’4”/195 , posting solid run times while also showing a good feel for contact. After hitting .295/.394/.395 in Single-A, Pratt has six extra base hits in High-A in 17 games. It is a small sample, but Pratt has seen the contact rates dip by about ten percentage points from where it was in Single-A.

Despite being drafted in the sixth round of the 2023 draft, Pratt received a signing bonus well above slot at $1.35 million, showing the Brewers were very high on the skillset. This is definitely a top 100 prospect with plenty of room to grow.

MiLB Pitchers

David Davalillo, RHP, TEX, 21, A+

Another dominant outing from Davalillo as he tossed seven innings with one earned run and ten strikeouts. He issued just one walk while allowing six hits. He needed just 80 pitches, landing 79 percent of them for strikes while having 18 whiffs. His 35 percent CSW rate was also quite solid while throwing his fastball in the low-to-mid 90s.

Davalillo features a nice breaking ball as well that varies in shape, but usually has nice drop and sweep. On the year he has a 1.85 ERA across 92.2 innings between Single-A and High-A. Davalillo has 95 strikeouts to just 26 walks while pounding the strike zone with a rate north of 66 percent.

He misses bats at a solid clip, with a swinging strike rate sitting around 15 percent on the year and a CSW near 34 percent. Davalillo has gotten zero love but has been quite good this year. It is time to pay more attention.

Eiberson Castellano, RHP, PHI, 23, AA

Nate Handy has been pounding the table on Castellano for some time now, and when Nate talks pitching prospects, you should pay attention. After a strong stint in High-A, Castellano has been even better in Double-A. On Sunday, he turned in a six-inning start with five hits, two earned runs, and ten strikeouts. He led all Double-A arms with 17 whiffs.

Castellano’s fastball velocity has ticked up throughout the season and is now topping at 97 while sitting in the mid-90s. Mix in a devastating breaking ball with nice depth and some sweep, and you will have two pitches that can miss bats. He is mostly fastball-breaking ball, but both are quite good.

In 27 Double-A innings, Castellano has a 2.33 ERA which on the season lands him at 3.59 overall. The stuff is good and he has progressively gotten better all year. Castellano should be considered in leagues where 300-400 prospects are rostered.

Noah Cameron, LHP, KC, 25, AAA

I have legit highlighted Cameron after every Triple-A start and that trend continues today as he turned in another six inning start and did not allow a run. His fourth straight Triple-A start of at least six innings with a max of one earned run allowed. This followed a ton of success at Double-A where he posted a 3.63 ERA with a 3.27 FIP. The season-long line now sits at 2.98 ERA across 99.2 innings pitched with 117 strikeouts and 29 walks.

Cameron has missed plenty of bats this year and has kept the walk rate in check at 6.9 percent. Strike-throwing had been an issue at some points in his career, but he looks to have honed that in.

The fastball sits in the low 90s with a pretty generic shape, but the changeup and curve have both been nice bat-missing pitches this year. The changeup lives around 80 mph with nice depth and fade. The curve gets pretty nice drop in the upper-70s with a little bit of horizontal movement.

Cameron is an arm to watch and is just a call away from making his MLB debut.

Brandon Young, RHP, BAL, 26, AAA

On the eve of his 26th birthday, Young turned in another strong Triple-A start in which he allowed just one run across 5.2 innings with one walk and six strikeouts. It lowered his Triple-A ERA to 3.38 in 64 innings.

Young starts with a fastball that sits around 93 mph with a good movement profile. It has an impressive 32 percent whiff rate on it. He spins the curveball well and has a solid slider to play off of it. The changeup is his most used secondary showing late depth and nice horizontal movement.

While he may not be a flashy arm, Young has the ingredients to be a back-end starter and doesn’t really get much love, likely due to the fact he has spent the season as a 25/26-year-old in the minors.

Jairo Iriarte, RHP, CHW, 22, AA

Coming into the year, few pitchers were as buzzy as Iriarte. The stuff on top of the fact he had a dominant season landed him on the backend of top 100 list, even my own. His season has not gone like many hoped, having ups and downs, but Sunday was one of the starts where we saw the positives.

Making his second start of the week, Iriarte tossed six scoreless innings with five strikeouts and one walk. On the year, Iriarte has tossed 115 innings and has a 3.76 ERA. The walk rate has sat around 10 percent on the year but his strike rate is actually above league average.

Iriarte has a very good three-pitch mix featuring a nasty changeup that gets a ton of fade, a fastball that also has arm-side run, and a nice-looking slider. I think he commands all three better than most believe. Maybe the hype has fizzled out, but I’m still buying into Iriarte long-term.