The Dynasty Digest: August 12, 2024

Chris breaks down live looks from the Asheville-Bowling Green series, plus everything else you need to know from yesterdays action.

I spent the weekend in Asheville getting more looks at both Asheville and Bowling Green, whom I have both seen a ton. Both teams had new players to see, whether via draft or trade.

Live Looks: Bowling Green and Asheville

Brody Hopkins, RHP, TB, 22, A+

Hopkins is likely a player I never see in person without his trade to Tampa Bay. Even though I have seen Bowling Green for eight games this year, he was worth going to see them again, and he did not disappoint. The 6’4” righty cruised through 5.1 innings with just 75 pitches and only left the game due to landing on his non-throwing shoulder on a play where he was covering first base.

In his 5.1 innings, Hopkins allowed just two hits and one walk while striking out five. He landed 51 of his 75 pitches for strikes, which was highly efficient. The only damage he allowed was a massive solo home run to Luis Baez, who took a 97 mph fastball the other way for a three-run homer.

Hopkins finished the day with nine whiffs, but I thought the stuff was much better than that whiff total suggested. He also landed 14 pitches for called strikes, good for a 30 percent CSW.

The fastball sat in the 95-97 range all night and touched triple digits on the stadium gun, but it was more like 99. Still, it was impressive. Hopkins throws two variations of the fastball, a four-seam and sinker, with the four-seam showing respectable ride and run, but his sinker getting a ton of running life, touching over 20 inches of arm-side movement often.

It comes from a low, funky arm slot at 5’, which you can see in the video below, making the riding four-seam even more impressive. Hopkins sweeper was his best pitch that generated the most whiffs on the start, sitting 87-89 mph with some depth and 13-15 inches of sweeping action. He will mix in a curveball in the 85-87 range with more depth than the slider and also throws a cutter with shorter horizontal break and more ride.

His changeup has nice depth and arm-side movement, sitting around 89 mph. It played well of the sinker and gives him a go to pitch against left handed bats.

On top of the impressive arsenal, Hopkins is an athlete. He moves extremely well on the mound and was all over the field on grounders and bunts, making plays look smooth. It is important to remember that Hopkins is newer to the pitcher and was an outfielder in college. He pitched a total of 31 innings prior to his draft year at Winthrop.

On the year, Hopkins has a 2.81 ERA across 93 innings with 106 strikeouts and 43 walks. The strike rate has improved all year, which is encouraging, and Hopkins misses a ton of bats. Buy in now.

Jackson Nezuh, RHP, HOU, 22, A+

Nezuh has quietly been one of the better pitchers in the Minors this year after being selected in the 14th round from Louisiana Lafayette in 2023. After a slow start to the season, Nezuh settled in nicely in May and, moving forward, posting a 3.00 ERA across 72 innings between May 10 and August 3, a total of 15 starts. Nezuh is fourth in Minor League Baseball with 130 strikeouts and he has just 40 walks on the year.

Nezuh’s line in the start I saw him was not overly impressive, but he pitched much better than the line indicated. There were some defensive mishaps, and he was BABIP’d to death with several infield hits and bloops allowed. He finished the day with four earned runs allowed across 4.1 innings with six hits allowed.

Still, Nezuh missed bats, generating 11 whiffs on the outing and landing 12 more called strikes. 51 of his 79 pitches were strikes, good for a 65 percent mark, well above average.

His fastball lived in the 92-95 mph range and missed bats often. It showed a good movement profile with some run. From a breaking ball standpoint, Nezuh threw both a slider and curve with the slider sitting in the 80-82 mph range and the curve between 75-78. Nezuh did change him arm speed pretty significantly when throwing the curve and seemed to really telegraph it.

The changeup was by far Nezuh’s best offering though. It lived between 80 and 81 mph but plays like a split-change, having ride and late run and depth. It has an impressive swing and miss rate on it this year and hitters really struggled to pick it up. I would label it as a plus offering.

Nezuh was an excellent find by the Astros in the 14th round. I do think there is something here, and Nezuh has a chance to be a long-term starting pitcher in the Majors. I would keep an eye on how the rest of this year goes, but I think he is definitely a dynasty league buy.

Ty Johnson, RHP, TB, 22, A+

Johnson was traded to Tampa as part of the Isaac Paredes deal. I saw him pitch with Myrtle Beach in the second week of the season, and honestly, it was not good. I deleted the film I had of him and kind of did not pay attention to him. But as the swinging strike rate continued to rise and sit near the top of the minor leaguers, I wondered if I put too much stock into one bad outing. I think that was the case.

He dazzled while piggybacking with Hopkins, tossing 3.2 perfect innings with six strikeouts. He generated ten whiffs, had a 44 percent CSW, and landed 70 percent of his pitches for strikes.

Johnson sat 96-97 with the fastball, which is up from what it has averaged this season. The former 15th-rounder out of Ball State has a pretty low release height at 5’7”, considering his 6’6” frame. The amount of ride he creates on the fastball is average in a general sense, but considering release height, it is above average. The pitch gets over ten inches of arm-side run consistently, and he lands it in the zone quite often. The more impressive thing is the amount of in-zone whiff the fastball generates.

The slider was his most used secondary, sitting in the 85-87 mph range with a nice two-plane break. He did mix an 83 mph changeup, but did not throw it often. Johnson’s long-term development as a starter probably hinges on the ability to continue to develop that changeup.

Johnson has a strong arm and a lot of bat-missing ability. His strike-throwing has been better than you might expect from a 6’6” frame. I am investing in Johnson and especially like him in the Rays organization.

Walker Janek, C, HOU, 21, A+

Janek made his pro debut after being selected in the first round by the Astros in the 2024 draft. After a productive career at Sam Houston State where Janek showed strong skills at the plate and behind the plate, the transition to pro ball has gone well.

Bowling Green has some burners on their team, so several stolen bases were allowed, but Janek still made some stellar throws. The first video below is a 1.83 pop time on a throw to second, which is elite. The second video is Janek picking off Hunter Haas at first base. He showed a plus arm and receiving skills.

At the plate, Janek did not stand out in any one way, but he did have a solid first five games as a pro last week, collecting five hits, including a double. The speed of the game in High-A is much faster than what he is likely used to at Sam Houston State and my look featured him facing two really good arms and Asheville collected a total of two hits.

The bat is good. In college, Janek showed a good feel for contact, with a 77 percent overall contact rate that jumped to 88 percent in-zone. The chase rate is a manageable 25 percent. While it is easy to look at a player like Janek at Sam Houston State and assume the performance came from dominating lesser competition, we have seen players like Colton Cowser come from there and succeed.

Showing a solid feel for power, Janek posted a 93 mph average exit velocity with a 105 mph 90th percentile. He limits ground balls and lifts the ball with ease, spraying line drives to all fields. The hard-hit rate of 57 percent is encouraging, and it jumps even higher when looking at batted balls to the pull-side.

Luis Baez, OF, HOU, 20, A+

I have had quite a few looks at Baez this year, and he has easily been the best bat in Asheville’s lineup all season. He took a Brody Hopkins 97 mph fastball the opposite way for a 388-foot home run, his 20th of the year.

Baez is a physical beast and is much bigger than his listed 6’1”/225 frame. The power is plus or better with some big exit velocities to all fields. There are certainly strikeout issues, but Baez shows good enough in-zone contact to be passable. It may be a below-average hit tool, and he can get aggressive, which is a cause for concern.

Still, we are looking at a potential 30 home run bat who moves pretty well and I have seen make good plays in the outfield. This is not the kind of profile you just write off as a DH.

Homer Bush Jr., OF, TB, 22, A+

Bush made a solid first impression in my first live look of him. Coming to Tampa from San Diego in the Jason Adam deal, Bush has actually gotten off to a slow start to his Rays career, but I saw him get on base four times in the game, which included two doubles.

The speed is legit 80 grade based on the clock times I got and Bush gave 110 percent hustle on every play. He has good reads in the outfield and excellent closing speed. As you might expect, given the speed, Bush steals bases with ease, having 48 on the year.

Bush has shown average to slightly above-average contact rates this year, but I would label him as an average feel to hit long-term. The power is well below average at the present, but the frame does give some hope he could tap into more power. I think his large, athletic frame surprised me the most in my looks.

But, as you can see in the video, Bush is not trying to hit for power. He chokes up, puts the ball in play, and lets his legs do the work. I think Bush was a pretty pleasant surprise in my looks.

Tre’ Morgan, 1B, TB, 22, A+

Morgan is a player I have seen quite a bit over his professional career, both with Charleston and Bowling Green. A professional hitter is the best way to describe Morgan, who has run contact rates north of 80 percent at both levels he has played this year.

During the game, Morgan collected three hits and finished a triple shy of the cycle. His home run traveled 310 feet, which is a routine fly ball in most places, but left the yard in Asheville, which has a right field wall shorter than 300 feet. It was a moonshot for sure, but only a home run in probably one Minor League stadium.

I have highlighted Morgan’s two-strike approach where he gets extremely wide and does not utilize a stride. He showed that again on his opposite field single and mashed a double in the gap. Morgan does an excellent job hitting hte ball where it is pitched and rarely misses. There is a reason he is hitting .376 on the year with a 1.032 OPS.

Not only does Morgan have a strong feel for contact, but plays a gold glove caliber first baseman.