The Dynasty Digest: April 1, 2024

Chris Clegg breaks down everything you need to know from the weekend's action on both the MLB and MiLB side.

How is it April? Spring Training has come and gone, the MLB Regular season began, and we even kicked off minor league ball. We are looking at small samples of production to this point, but there is still a lot to talk about.

The Dynasty Digest helps keep you up to date on everything going on across professional baseball, from the minors to majors to give you an edge in your dynasty leagues.

Today’s edition is free for all readers to get a glimpse of what we offer on a day-to-day basis. If you find this kind of content useful, consider subscribing to support the site and get access to the daily Dynasty Digest, plus a ton of other great content.

MiLB Standouts

Joey Loperfido, 2B/OF, HOU

While it seemed to be that Loperfido had an outside chance to break camp with the Astros, he found himself in Triple-A, and apparently, that was a big motivation. While he did go 0-3 with a walk on Sunday, the first two games of the Triple-A season saw Loperfido blast three home runs and drive in seven.

As you might expect, Loperfido is hitting the cover off the ball with a 94 mph average exit velocity and has shown some good high-end exit velocities. His contact skills have been good in a small sample, as he has put the ball on the ball 81 percent of the time.

Loperfido’s versatility, plus his bat, only helps his case of making the Astros roster soon. Last season he played center field(43 games), first base(19), right field(20), second base(21), left field(14) while showing a good bat. All three games this year, he has played center field, where the Astros are currently starting Jake Meyers. Between three levels in 2023, he slashed .278/.370/.510 with 25 home runs and 27 stolen bases. Yes, he can mash and will be a solid fantasy contributor as soon as he comes up.

Owen Caissie, OF, CHC

Caissie has gotten off to a strong start in his first Triple-A stint, with seven hits in his first three games. With a big power bat like Caissie’s, you might expect more extra base hits to this point, but it has been just five singles and two doubles.

The impressive thing is that Caissie has walked twice and struck out just three times in 14 plate appearances, which is a positive sign after he struck out over 31 percent of the time in 2023. He has put up a couple of big exit velocities and is hitting the ball at ideal launch angles with a 55.6 percent line drive rate.

If you are looking for a future middle-of-the-order power hitter, Owen Caissie is your guy. You could argue that his power is some of the best in not only the minors but all of baseball, as he posted an average exit velocity north of 94 mph and a 90th percentile exit velocity above 110 mph in 2023. Both of these figures would rank among the best hitters in the Majors.

Heston Kjerstad, OF, BAL

The entire Norfolk team is on fire and while they are not better than an MLB lineup, they do possess plenty of players that should be in a MLB lineup currently. Kjerstad looks like a man on a mission to prove he should be in Baltimore’s crowded lineup as he has seven hits through the first three games and has a shown a good feel for contact.

Hitting the ball hard, Kjerstad has a near 95 mph average exit velocity through 11 batted balls, which is not surprising as he has always put a charge into baseballs. The step forward I want to note is the contact skills, which have been really good as Kjerstad has put the bat on the ball 84 percent of swings after Sunday. You may have noticed my post on X stating that he was at 92 percent and I did not realize my data had not updated with Sunday’s action yet.

It will be challenging for Kjerstad to find a spot in this Baltimore lineup given the talent, but there is no reason to think he cannot hit his way into finding a role at some point early this season.

Connor Norby, 2B, BAL

Speaking of Orioles’ prospects looking for a chance at playing time, Norby enters his third season in Norfolk after making it there to end 2022 and then spending the entire 2023 season with the Triple-A squad. I am sure he is quite comfortable at this point, but also ready to get out.

In three games, Norby has collected six hits, including a home run and a double, while hitting the ball harder than ever. No, I am not reading into a small sample and thinking his 95 mph average exit velocity sticks, but it is good to see.

Last season, Norby posted an average exit velocity of 86.5 and a 90th percentile of 101.5, both suggesting slightly below-average power. Norby rarely misses mistake pitches and gets the ball in the air often though. The contact skills have always been good and that has carried over to 2024 as well as he has an 85 percent overall contact rate.

Norby still likely needs a trade to find playing time, but the potential is there in the right organization.

Coby Mayo, 3B, BAL

What do you know, another Orioles’ prospect? This time, it is hard-hitting Coby Mayo, who, like many other Norfolk hitters, is off to a great start. With a home run and a double through three games, Mayo also has five hits, giving him a batting average of .357 with a .643 slugging percentage.

After a strong spring, it looked possible that Mayo could find his way into Baltimore’s opening day lineup. I still think it is a matter of weeks before we see both Mayo and Jackson Holliday up and what a sweet day it would be if both of those debuted the same day in Camden Yards.

Mayo’s current average exit velocity of 91.5 mph is right where he left off last season, and he has three batted balls north of 106 mph already. Last season, Mayo posted an average exit velocity of 92 mph to pair with a near 107 mph 90th percentile, putting the power in the plus or better range.

Mayo makes enough contact when you consider the quality of the contact, checking in with a 74 percent clip in 2023 while making contact on pitches in the zone at an 83 percent rate. He also posts low chase rates and is a selective hitter. So far in three games, Mayo has a 78 percent contact rate.

Jackson Holliday, SS, BAL

Well, we have already talked about three Orioles’ prospects, what is one more? Of course, it has to be Jackson Holliday, out here proving he is MLB ready. Holliday has the most plate appearances in Triple-A to this point, which is not surprising given the caliber of lineup he is in and hitting at the top.

Holliday has five hits to this point, which includes a home run and two doubles, while hitting the ball consistently hard. It would be easy to read into Holliday’s 93.3 mph average exit velocity and write it off as a small sample because he only hit 12 home runs last season, but many missed that he had a 91 mph average exit velocity in 2023. Considering Holliday just turned 20 years old, there is power to be had in his bat.

I think it will likely be just a few weeks before we see Holliday as the starting second baseman in Baltimore.

Rece Hinds, OF, CIN

Hinds is out here doing exactly what we know Hinds to do. Mash home runs and strikeout. He has hit two home runs in three games, but has also struck out five times. I know it is a small sample, but it is funny to look at a 38 percent contact rate for a player after three games.

In 2023, there were massive splits in the first and second halves when it came to contact and strikeout rates. The slash lines were not far off as Hinds slashed .259/.316/.527 in the first half and .271/.342/.535 in the second. However, the first half slash came with a 37.5 percent strikeout and 62 percent contact rate. But a second-half surge saw the contact rate jump 11 percentage points to 73 percent, and the strikeout rate subsequently dropped to 26.4 percent, an 11 percent drop.

At the end of the day, Hinds is likely a 40-grade hitter with 60+ power and sneaky stolen base upside. Hinds is a strong athlete, and if the contact improvements stick from the second half of 2023, he could be a strong corner outfielder for the Reds. Hinds will just need to make contact.

Jack Leiter, RHP, TEX

Are we really surprised to see Jack Leiter back and looking good? An arm with this kind of talent usually figures it out, even if it does take a while. After being so good at Vanderbilt, Leiter has not had the best pro career to this point.

The Rangers placed Leiter on the development list last season to work on mechanics, and the strike-throwing improved significantly. Before hitting the development list, the strike rate sat at 60 percent with a 15 percent walk rate, and after returning, the strike rate jumped to 65 percent, and the walk rate fell to just 7.2 percent.

Those changes seemed to carry over to Leiter’s first outing of 2024, as he struck out nine batters across five innings with just two hits and two earned runs allowed. Most of the damage came on a home run he gave up.

Leiter threw strikes at a 71 percent clip in the start while his fastball sat 95.7 mph with a ton of life up in the zone. In fact, Leiter averaged 21 inches of IVB, which is just crazy to even see, while getting nearly 10 inches of horizontal movement.

The secondaries looked good, as well as Leiter missed bats with his slider at a higher clip, which sat near 90 mph, and his curveball showed nice depth. Watch out, Leiter looked really good and could be ready to pitch in Texas soon.

Cristian Mena, RHP, ARI

Mena looked good in his first start with the Diamondbacks, and as a pitching prospect I have always really liked, I am actually glad to see him no longer in the White Sox organization and with the Diamondbacks.

Mena tossed five innings in his first Triple-A start with Arizona, with just two hits allowed. He walked one while striking out six batters. This feels very notable considering Mena is now pitching in the PCL, a notorious hitters league.

While his fastball was 92-93 mph, his slider and curveball missed bats at a high rate. The changeup showed minimal separation from the fastball, which will need to improve. I still like Mena’s outlook as a potential long-term starting pitcher.

Carson Whisenhunt, LHP, SF

Coming off an elbow sprain to end the 2023 season, I wondered how the Giants might slow-play him this year. He was eased in during Spring Training but looked quite good in his first start, as he tossed three scoreless innings with six strikeouts. It was notable to see Whisenhunt now allow a walk and threw strikes at a nearly 64 percent clip, which is above average.

Whisenhunt’s fastball sat 94 mph, which is significant coming off an elbow injury and it averaged 17 inches of IVB and horizontal movement a piece. The changeup is Whisenhunt’s best pitch, and it is not particularly close, sitting right around 82 mph with incredible depth and fade. If you want to see an example of what people call a Bugs Bunny changeup, just watch Whisenhunt throw one. The pitch averaged over 19 inches of fade and missed a ton of bats, all while locating it well and generating plenty of strikes. 

The slider usage was encouraging as he threw it 14 percent of the time which was up from last season. If he can consistently use the slider at a rate between 10 and 20 percent, it bodes well for his outlook long term.

Paul Skenes, RHP, PIT

Yes, Paul Skenes is good at pitching. No, I was not surprised to see him toss three perfect innings with five strikeouts in his Triple-A debut. Skenes is the most impressive college pitcher we have ever seen, probably dating back to Stephen Strasburg. What Skenes did this year was unprecedented in 2023, as he struck out 209 batters in 122.2 innings pitched, which is a 45 percent rate.

The crazy thing is that Skenes is continuing to refine his arsenal and throw more pitches. The curveball is a new offering that Skenes has been working on to add to his already impressive fastball, slider and changeup.

Skenes' fastball averaged over 100 mph and his changeup or I guess maybe what we should call a turbo sinker sat 94 mph with a very nice movement profile. He ended the day with a 52 percent whiff rate and a 39 percent CSW.

MLB Standouts

Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF, ARI

Gurriel is off to one of the hotter starts among any hitter in baseball, having three home runs and a stolen base while slashing .471/.526/1.118 through four games. He is hitting the ball hard, having a 46 percent hard-hit rate and a very strong contact rate.

Gurriel is coming off a career-best season in 2023 with Arizona, in which he hit 24 home runs and slashed .261/.309/.463. It seems like Gurriel enjoys playing in the desert.

Jung Hoo Lee, OF, SF

Lee has gotten a lot of buzz in the last few days, and it seems that he is undervalued. He is a solid hitter with a high floor to get on base, but there were questions surrounding his power and speed. Lee blasted a home run and has a 96 mph average exit velocity through 14 batted balls. There has been a healthy dose of both ground balls and fly balls, and if he can come to a nice middle ground on those, he could potentially be a better power hitter than many thought.

Oswaldo Cabrera, INF/OF, NYY

Cabrera has gotten off to a scorching hot start to the year, hitting two home runs and seven hits through his first four games. Versatility helps Cabrera’s case to stay in the lineup, and so far, in 2024, he has made starts at shortstop and third base while also having the ability to play in the outfield.

I don’t think I am fully buying into Cabrera’s start due to poor exit velocities and hard-hit skills.

Michael Conforto, OF, SF

Conforto reworked his swing this offseason, and the early results have shown. He has six hits through four games which includes two home runs and two doubles a piece while driving in five runs.

Conforto just turned 31 years old and is not that far removed from being a very solid player. Unfortunately, injuries have set him back a ton in the last few years. His 2024 will be fun to follow to see if the early gains can sustain throughout the season.

Bobby Miller, RHP, LAD

Miller dominated his first start against the Cardinals as he tossed six scoreless innings with an impressive 11 strikeouts and one walk. He changed the shape of his slider this year, throwing it three mph harder with much more ride. The fastball averaged 99 mph with a ton of IVB and was located well.

Interestingly enough, Miller only missed nine bats, which was good for a 22 percent clip, but got 21 called strikes, which was good for a 32 percent CSW. Miller has all the stuff to be an ace if he can miss more bats.

Jared Jones, RHP, PIT

Have an MLB debut, Jared Jones! Jones tossed 5.2 innings in which he allowed three earned runs, but he struck out 10 batters while walking just two. He generated an impressive 46 percent whiff rate and a 40 percent CSW. Joens missed bats at a high clip with his slider and fastball.

Eli-Ben Porat pointed out on X how similar the pitch metrics are to Spencer Strider, and you can see his chart below. The only thing I am questioning is how Baseball Savant had Jones at a 7’6” extension when he had been 6’6”-6’7” in Spring Training and 6’5” in 2023.

Regardless, Jones is very fun to watch and should be rostered in all formats.

Kutter Crawford, RHP, BOS

The Red Sox pitching has looked really good, and Crawford was a big part of that, as he tossed six scoreless innings with seven strikeouts and just one walk. Crawford threw predominantly three pitches in his sweeper, cutter, and four-seam fastball, but also threw a curve, splitter, and slider. Crawford likely won’t be a very flashy arm, but should be a solid starter for fantasy teams and Boston.

Brady Singer, RHP, KC

Is Brady Singer back? I guess time will tell. Singer tossed seven scoreless innings on Sunday with ten strikeouts. Singer led with his slider, which he threw 54 percent of the time, generating a 62 percent whiff rate. Singer’s sinker sat between 92 and 94 mph, and he debuted a new four-seam fastball. Time will tell if his start is a mirage, but Singer has shown flashes in the past of being a solid starting pitcher.

Garrett Whitlock, RHP, BOS

Whitlock was one of my favorite arms to draft this offseason, largely because I bought into the changes he was making this offseason. The first start looked very good as Whitlock allowed just one earned run across five innings. He did not issue and walk and struck out eight batters.

Adding a couple of new pitches this season, Whitlock threw a cutter that sat 87 mph and a gyro-slider that was near 84 mph. Whitlock lowered his release height nearly. 5 inches according to Lance Brozdowski on X.

The arsenal is good, I would watch out for Whitlock who might just take a big leap forward this year.