AJ Smith-Shawver Scouting Report

Chris Clegg breaks down AJ Smith-Shawver's impressive start against Durham.

AJ Smith-Shawver, RHP, ATL, 20, AAA

I traveled over to Gwinnett last night to see AJ Smith-Shawver’s start against Kyle Manzardo and the Durham Bulls. He has made quite the ascension, as the 20 year old has moved from High-A all the way to Triple-A in the matter of seven starts. Thursday’s start certainly lived up to hype as Smith-Shawver had one of the best and the longest starts of his career.

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The Numbers

Smith-Shawver fired seven innings, needing just 86 pitches. He struck out eight batters and walked three. Two of the walks were four pitch walks to start innings and he rebounded nicely to strike out the next batter afterward. The only damage that was done was on a hanging curveball which Tristan Gray smacked 112.6 mph for a ground rule double. That was in the fourth when he began the inning with a walk and Niko Hulsizer singled on a groundball that probably should have been gotten by Vaughn Grissom(I know.. don’t tell me).

He finished the day with a 67.2 percent strike rate, a 26 percent whiff rate, and a 30 percent CSW. Pretty strong considering he was a facing a talented Durham lineup as a 20 year old.

Alex Anthopoulos was at the game last night watching him and I talked to him for a few minutes. He told me he felt like AJ Smith-Shawver was already as good as the other arms in Triple-A(Soroka, Dodd, Shuster, etc) so he wanted to see how they stacked up side-by-side. Reminder, he will be 20 years old this entire season.

The Arsenal

Smith-Shawver relies on his fastball pretty heavily and for good reason. It sits 95 and topped at 97 last night with excellent ride and life at the top of the zone. It can get up to 20 inches of IVB, which is induced vertical break. That is a pretty high-end number. The fastball also averaged between four and seven inches of run. He used it 52 percent of the time last night and located it well. He can run it at the top of the zone, but also throws it down and running away from lefties, which he did to Kyle Manzardo several times. He struck out him twice last night on the fastball.

His slider is his go-to secondary pitch. It sits around 85 mph and gets around 36 inches in vertical drop. It moves between five-to-six inches horizontally. He gets plenty of whiffs and even called strikes with the pitch. He threw it back-door and even to the back foot of left-handed batters, as well as running it away from righties.

Baseball Savant classifies some pitches as a cutter, but i’m fairly certain its the same pitch as the slider as it has a similar velocity and movement profile.

Smith-Shawver has not featured his curve much until recently. In fact the Braves organization actually shelved his curve and changeup last year for his to really focus on developing his fastball and slider. The move makes sense when you see how well he has developed.

The curveball has been thrown more over his last several starts and I am highly impressed with it. It sits between 78 and 80 mph with up to 61 inches of vertical drop! Sixty-one inches puts Smith-Shawver in the top-25 among MLB pitchers in terms of vertical movment. He saw anywhere from five-to-ten inches of horizontal movement as well. He left it hanging once over the middle as I previously mentioned and Smith-Shawver does not have as much command of it as he does his slider and fastball. But, in terms of movement and swing and miss, it flashes being plus if he gets more feel for it.

While he did not throw the changeup in my look, it is worth mentioning because its a solid pitch too. It sits in a similar velocity band as his slider, around 85 mph. It is a low spinning, fading pitch, with good depth.

The arsenal is well-rounded here and while it seemed Smith-Shawver was more of a two-pitch arm, I will not be surprised when we see a consistent four-pitch guy in the majors with a fastball, slider, curve, and changeup.

You can check out his start here:

https://twitter.com/RotoClegg/status/1661934819746496516?s=20

Summary

AJ Smith-Shawver’s ascension has been something to watch. But if you have been a part of the Dynasty Dugout you would have been investing in him in the preseason. We could see him in Atlanta by season’s end, especially with the shortage of starters. If Fried and Wright do come back healthy, Smith-Shawver could work out of the bullpen during the September and postseason stretch. It might be too late to invest in dynasty leagues right now, but I would certainly try.

Here is what I wrote on him in January:

AJ Smith-Shawver may not be a household name yet, but don’t be surprised when he ascends rankings in 2023. You might be even more confused by looking at his stats from 2022. He might already be the Braves best prospect. Is the Braves system just shallow? Yes, but Smith-Shawver is a legit arm.

His fastball sits upper-90s, and he locates it well at the top of the zone. Smith-Shawver’s slider is a huge swing-and-miss pitch that he is comfortable throwing to both left and right-handed batters. His third offering is a changeup that is still developing but shows nice promise with its fading action. The fastball and slider are easily plus with a chance to be 70-grade pitches. Invest in AJ Smith-Shawver now in a dynasty league.

Check out the full article here: