Starting Pitcher Streamers 4/8-4/14
Starting Pitcher Streamers 4/8-4/14
Michael Simione breaks down all the pitching streamers that you need to know for this weeks slate of games.
Sometimes it’s good to admit your faults and one of mine is how I am too conservative when it comes to Fantasy Baseball. I tend to be slow at pulling the trigger and I did that with Garrett Crochet. After his first start I wasn’t fully sold because of the low whiff rate but after this start against the Braves…you have to buy in. Seven innings with just one earned run and eight strikeouts against the Braves is baller. He had 18 whiffs with a 37% CSW rate and both of his breaking balls had a whiff rate over 40%. The best thing about Crochet…his Stuff+ so far is 121 which is above Burnes, Strider, and Peralta.
Frankie Montas continued his hot start to the season by pitching through 5.2 innings allowing one run with five strikeouts against a potent Phillies offense. He had 17 whiffs on the night with eight of them coming from his splitter. It’s a tale as old as time, when Montas splitter is working he is a fantastic pitcher. Obviously keep holding.
For those who don’t know, the best metric for pitcher success early on in a season is K-BB%. Here are some notable names who have started the season with a high K-BB% and who have started at least two games:
Reid Detmers - 35.7% (low Stuff+ though)
Garrett Crochet - 31.3%
Jared Jones - 31.3% (137 Stuff+ which is insane)
Michael Wacha - 26.2%
Brady Singer - 25.0% (low Stuff+)
Here are our results from last week:
4/1 Tanner Houck: 6.0 IP - 3 H - 0 ER - 0 BB - 10 K
4/2 Javier Assad: 6.0 IP - 4 H - 0 ER - 1 BB - 5K
4/3 A.J. Puk: 4.0 IP - 5 H - 2 ER - 3 BB - 5K
4/4 Seth Lugo: 6.2 IP - 8 H - 1 ER - 2 BB - 3K
4/5 Brady Singer: 6.1 IP - 2 H - 1 ER - 1 BB - 4K
4/6 Garrett Whitlock: 4.1 IP - 4 H - 0 ER - 4 BB - 4K
4/7 Tanner Houck: TBD
Season Total: 53.2 IP - 41 H - 9 ER - 19 BB - 49 K - 1.51 ERA - 1.12 WHIP
Your Streaming Options
A lot of people asked me last week who I consider a streamer. The way I work it is I combine ESPN and Yahoo's rostered percentage and then average it out. If the pitcher is rostered under 30% I consider him a streamer.
This week there were a lot of injuries and while I think Fangraphs probable grid is always the most accurate I can see a lot of pitchers being switched up. We will see what happens but I will of course be giving five options per day so you can always go to the next pitcher down.
Monday 4/8
Streamer of the Day
Bit of a tough day in terms of choices for Monday. The one I like best is Spencer Turnbull who will be taking on the St. Louis Cardinals. Turnbull has always had talent with solid breaking balls but injuries always seem to get in the way. As for the Cardinals, they are getting healthier but their 81 wRC+ to start the year is appalling.
Strikeout Upside
Spencer Turnbull and Reese Olson.
Ratio Play (High Floor)
Spencer Turnbull, Reese Olson, Logan Allen and Javier Assad.
Win/QS Potential
Spencer Turnbull and Logan Allen.
If I Had to Rank The Top Five
Spencer Turnbull
Reese Olson
Logan Allen
Javier Assad
Louie Varland
Tuesday 4/9
Streamer of the Day
We are going to go with a boring veteran for Tuesday. He has a 2.45 ERA on the season so far (a lot of luck though) and he takes on the Tigers. The pitcher I am talking about is Martín Pérez.
The Tigers have the 6th worst wOBA on the season and the 9th worst ISO. Additionally, the Pirates stadium bodes well for the way Perez pitches and it should still be cold out so the ball should stay in the park.
Strikeout Upside
Casey Mize.
Ratio Play (High Floor)
Martín Pérez.
Win/QS Potential
Reynaldo Lopez and Martin Perez.
If I Had to Rank The Top Five
Martín Pérez
Casey Mize
Reynaldo Lopez
Michael Soroka
Zack Thompson
Wednesday 4/10
Streamer of the Day
I kind of feel like this pick is cheating a little bit. But he isn’t over the 30% threshold although I assume he is rostered in your league already. Our pick is Zack Littell who takes on the Angels.
Litell is a very crafty pitcher and his strikeout rate increase in his first start is something I think he can maintain. It has been one start but his 13.7 SwStr% in that one start is a fantastic thing to see.
Strikeout Upside
Zack Littell and Michael Lorenzen.
Ratio Play (High Floor)
Zack Littell, Bryce Elder, and Michael Lorenzen.
Win/QS Potential
Zack Littell and Michael Lorenzen.
If I Had to Rank The Top Five
Zack Littell
Michael Lorenzen
Bryce Elder
Erick Fedde
Jose Quintana
Thursday 4/11
Streamer of the Day
We have six options for the day but I think we have to go with the obvious one in Jon Gray who takes on the Athletics at home. The A’s are bottom five on the season in wOBA and wRC+, a surprise to no one. Gray is a two-pitch pitcher with one of those pitches being a bit erratic. I don’t like him long term but for this start, it is a smart play.
Strikeout Upside
Jon Gray and Luis Severino.
Ratio Play (High Floor)
Jon Gray.
Win/QS Potential
Jon Gray and Ranger Suarez.
If I Had to Rank The Top Five
Jon Gray
Ranger Suarez
Luis Severino
J.P. France
Nick Martinez
Friday 4/12
Streamer of the Day
Look, we all know I love to look for strikeout upside. Strikeouts are what makes a pitcher great. But sometimes you have to go with the hot hand, even if it means a super low K/9. Paul Blackburn has been fantastic to start the season and he takes on the Washington Nationals for this start. Blackburn excels at inducing weak contact and he should be able to continue that here.
Strikeout Upside
Clarke Schmidt, Jake Irvin, and Sean Manaea.
Ratio Play (High Floor)
Jake Irvin, Paul Blackburn, and Sean Manaea.
Win/QS Potential
Jake Irvin and Paul Blackburn.
If I Had to Rank The Top Five
Paul Blackburn
Sean Manaea
Clarke Schmidt
Jake Irvin
Trevor Rogers
Saturday 4/13
Streamer of the Day
MacKenzie Gore’s first start didn’t go as planned but his fastball velocity was up from 05.1 MPH to 96.8 MPH. It certainly looks like a much better pitch than it did in the past and if he can pair that with his lethal slider and decent curveball we could see him really excel. The matchup against Oakland will help as well.
Strikeout Upside
MacKenzie Gore, Luis Gil, Graham Ashcraft, and Louie Varland.
Ratio Play (High Floor)
MacKenzie Gore and Alec Marsh.
Win/QS Potential
MacKenzie Gore, Bowden Francis, Louie Varland, and Ryne Nelson.
If I Had to Rank The Top Five
MacKenzie Gore
Alec Marsh
Luis Gil
Graham Ashcraft
Louie Varland
Sunday 4/14
Streamer of the Day
There is a bit of a mixed bag today. By that I mean some not-so-great pitchers with good matchups and enticing pitchers with tough matchups. I’m going to lean with Chris Paddack against Detroit. It is in Detroit which helps and I think we will see a better Paddack moving forward. Paddack didn’t pitch horribly in his first start but the strikeouts weren’t there. Hopefully they start to show up here against the free-swinging Tigers.
Strikeout Upside
Chris Paddack and Aaron Ashby.
Ratio Play (High Floor)
Chris Paddack, Javier Assad, and Michael Soroka.
Win/QS Potential
Chris Paddack, Reynaldo Lopez, and Alex Wood.
If I Had to Rank The Top Five
Chris Paddack
Aaron Ashby
Javier Assad
Reynaldo Lopez
Michael Soroka
Thoughts on Rea or Feltner tm ?