St. Louis Cardinals Top Prospects 2024

St. Louis Cardinals top prospects for 2024 dynasty fantasy baseball including Masyn Winn, Tink Hence, Tekoah Roby, Victor Scott and more.

Rankings and Writeups by: Jacob(CardinalsReek on X)

Welcome to our team prospect rankings. Over the next two months, I will be pumping out team top prospect rankings and evaluations for dynasty baseball. These reports are generated from live looks, film study, and advanced data analysis to bring you in-depth fantasy scouting reports on every player you need to know, with today’s being the St. Louis Cardinals Top Prospects.

Not all 30 players in each writeup will be dynasty relevant, but many will, and if you play in a deep league, certainly most of the names will be worth knowing.

You can check out our previous Top Prospect Rankings:

Atlanta, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Washington, Chicago, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Arizona

Each player has a detailed write-up. The top 10 rankings and writeups are free for all, but the rest of the top prospects are for paid subs. Get an edge in your dynasty leagues and get in on some of these players first! Let’s get to it, our Cardinals Top Prospect list.

Top Prospect Glossary

FFG = Future Fantasy Grade - essentially, what is the likely long-term outcome for the prospect? This is always going to be more conservative. Handing out ace tags is not something I like to do. So this is a realistic outcome.

90th Peak = If the player hits their best-case outcome, what does it look like?

Variance = How risky is this player’s profile, and how likely are they to hit their likely outcome? Low variance is good; high means more risky.

St. Louis Cardinals Top Prospects: Dynasty Fantasy Baseball

1. Masyn Winn, SS, 21, 5’11”/180

Drafted 54th overall in 2020 and making his MLB debut in 2023, Masyn Winn brings a lot to the table. A former pitcher turned shortstop, Masyn Winn has a cannon of an arm. He ranked 2nd among SS in average arm strength, only behind the Reds’ phenom Elly de La Cruz. Winn had a rough MLB debut, as he hit just 2 HR with a 29 wRC+ in 37 games.

In MiLB play, Winn was much better. He slashed .288/.359/.474 for AAA Memphis in 105 games, all while playing as an outstanding shortstop defensively. Despite stealing only 17 bases at both levels combined, he ranked in the 92nd percentile in sprint speed. He stole 43 bases in 2022, so he has 20-30 SB potential.

He had a 102 mph 90th percentile exit velocity in AAA and a max exit velocity of 110.1 mph. He has a smaller frame that he will build into, but power just isn’t one of his current strengths. However, he posted an 88% Zone-Contact% in Memphis with a respectable 34% Sweet-Spot%. His best offensive tool is his bat-to-ball skills.

While he may just be an average offensive player, his baserunning and defensive prowess at the most important position on the infield will elevate his overall value.

FFG: Hit-Tool First SS with Speed

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: .280/.350 OBP/20 HR/30 SB

Variance: Medium

Buy/Sell: Buy

2. Tink Hence, RHP, 21, 6’1”/185

Markevian (Tink) Hence was the 63rd overall pick in the 2020 draft. St. Louis drafted him as a 17-year-old, and he was committed to play baseball in college for Arkansas before his selection. As a lanky fireballer with an outlier release point and velocity combination, Hence has quickly become the best arm in the Cardinals minor-league system.

Hence’s fastball is easily a 70-grade offering. He sits 96 mph with a -4.2 VAA from a low release point and tops out at around 99 mph. The combination of a low release, high velocity, and good carry makes the pitch look like it is rising as it enters the zone. This is very difficult for batters to barrel up, and this fastball blueprint has become more popular in today's baseball world.

Tink Hence’s slider gets 7 inches of horizontal movement and is his primary weapon against RHH. He’s slightly tweaked the pitch shape since last season, but it garnered a fantastic chase rate in 2023. His changeup is also a notable piece in his arsenal, and is necessary for him to use early and often when facing LHH. It’s a great chase and whiff pitch, and has been developed heavily early in his career. His curveball is another good offering, but he didn’t go to it as often in 2023. It’s a hard, hammering curve with lots of drop. He added three mph in velocity on average to his curveball in 2023 compared to 2022.

Overall, Tink Hence projects to be a top half of the rotation starter. He has some control issues, but for a young and hard thrower like him, that is expected. Command will develop as he grows into a larger frame, and his workload will be increased in the following years. I’m really excited to watch Tink perform in the majors sometime soon.

FFG: SP3

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: 150 IP/3.70 ERA/170 K

Variance: Medium

Buy/Sell: Buy

3. Tekoah Roby, RHP, 22, 6'1"/185

Acquired from Texas at the 2023 trade deadline, Roby has a case to be the best arm in the Cardinals minor-league system. He dealt with injuries in both 2022 and 2023, but has posted a 28.6% K% and 4.32 FIP in those last two seasons.

Roby has electrifying stuff. His 4-Seamer gets up to 99 mph and sits 95 with good ride. He uses it more than half the time, and it’s a big reason why he’s able to rack up so many Ks. It’s lost about an inch of induced vertical break since last year, but it’s come with an uptick in velocity. It’s a 60-grade pitch at minimum.

His big curveball is another strong asset in his arsenal. It dives down quickly with above-average velocity and is able to induce out-of-zone swings at a good rate. It’s his primary breaking pitch, and it’s just disgusting. Another well above-average offering.

His gyro-slider saw a +8% usage increase this season. After generating a near 50% Whiff% last year while only being used 3% of the time, Roby bumped his slider usage up to 11%. The fastball-slider tunnel is amazing, and he has just enough movement separation between the two to allow him to fool hitters with a late break. I’d love to see him increase slider usage again in 2024.

His changeup is another good piece, but it’s his 4th pitch. It allowed him to post a 21.4% K-BB% against LHB this season, which is a fantastic thing to see. The ability to limit damage from opposite-handed batters at such a young age is a great sign in terms of development. The changeup rounds out his arsenal nicely.

What a get this was for St. Louis. Tekoah Roby should soar up the prospect rankings next year, and he’s already catching the attention of many. Really nice pickup by the Cardinals.

FFG: SP3

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: 150 IP/3.75 ERA/165 K

Variance: Medium

Buy/Sell: Buy

4. Victor Scott II, OF, 22, 5’10”/190

There aren’t many minor leaguers with a true 80-grade skill. Victor Scott II has 2. Drafted 157th overall in the 5th round of the 2022 draft, Scott came from West Virginia University after breaking the schools’ single-season stolen base record with 38.

In the 2023 minor-league season, Victor Scott II stole 95 bases in 132 games across A+ and AA, playing 66 games at each. He slashed .303/.369/.425 with a K% of just 15.7%. He’s not a power/speed combo type player, but he’ll consistently put the ball in play and cause havoc on the bases.

Scott brings a smooth left-handed swing to the table. He doesn’t generate too much power, but he’s able to frequently take extra bases and run sustainably high BABIPs.

His defense is just spectacular. If anybody can take a hit away, it’s him. He might be a top 5 defensive player as soon as he makes his MLB debut. The arm isn’t amazing, but he will track down every flyball.

Overall, the main attraction here is his speed. This plays into his defense, but his routes and reaction time are just as impressive. I like his bat, but his other qualities give him the potential to be the number one Cardinals prospect at some point in 2024.

FFG: Elite Stolen Base Threat with respectable BA and HR

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: .280/.355 OBP/10 HR/60 SB

Variance: Medium

Buy/Sell: Buy

5. Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, 22, 6’3”/200

The 22nd overall pick was seen as the biggest steal of the first round in 2022. The lanky left-hander has a large frame and a delivery reminiscent of Chris Sale.

Hjerpe debuted in 2023 and had a great run at High-A. He pitched 41 innings with a 29.8% K%, which ranked 4th in the system among 55 pitchers with 40+ IP. Hjerpe’s first 8 starts each had at least 5 strikeouts, but he underwent a minor elbow surgery that kept him out from May to September. He pitched at the AZFL as a reliever, and should return to Peoria’s rotation in 2024.

Hjerpe’s fastball comes from a sub 4.5’ release height and averages around 90 mph. It doesn’t have a lot of carry, but it enters the zone at a very flat angle which plays against the uppercut swing of the hitter. It’s the only fastball in his repertoire.

His slider generates 13” of sweep in the other direction which is an incredible 30” horizontal separation. It’s only thrown 78 mph, but it has a lot of movement and plays up because of his release point.

His changeup is a really solid offering It tunnels well off of his fastball, as it has identical horizontal movement just with more drop and less velocity. This allowed him to have a 34.1% K% and 39.1% CSW% against LHB.

His cutter was only used 4% of the time this season, but I’d want him to utilize it more in 2024. It creates a bridge between his fastball and slider because of the massive horizontal separation between those 2.

Overall, Hjerpe will be a high-K starter but will run into command issues now and then. He needs to shift his focus to keeping the ball in the yard and potentially increasing his cutter usage.

FFG: SP4-5

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: 140 IP/3.80 ERA/160 K

Variance: High

Buy/Sell: Hold

6. Chase Davis, OF, 21, 6’1”/216

The Cardinals' first-round draft pick in 2023 was OF Chase Davis out of Arizona. He throws and hits left-handed, with a Cargo-esque swing. It’s genuinely one of the sweetest swings in professional baseball right now.

In his junior year of college in 2023, Davis posted a 1.261 OPS with fantastic batted-ball metrics. With a 108.2 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and a 22.8% Barrel%, it’s easy to see why St. Louis was more than happy with Davis at 21st overall.

Davis struck out as many times as he walked in his 241 PA at the college level this year, but part of this is because of his incredibly patient approach. He had just a 39.4% Swing% to go along with a 69.3% Zone-Swing%. He improved a bit when he made his pro debut with Palm Beach at to end of 2023, sporting a 43.4% Swing% for a +4% increase.

Chase Davis had a rough professional debut to say the least, but the switch from metal to wood bats and a new atmosphere could be some reasons for this. I firmly believe that he will show what type of hitter he really is next season.

Davis has good speed and defense, but his offensive profile is his key strength. I love his raw power, and it’s only a matter of time before it’s converted to massive game power.

FFG: Power Corner OF

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: .280/.380 OBP/22 HR/3 SB

Variance: High

Buy/Sell: Buy/Hold

7. Thomas Saggese, 2B/3B, 21, 5’11”/175

Acquired at the deadline from Texas in the Jordan Montgomery trade, Thomas Saggese is an offense-first infielder with a lot of potential.

All he does is hit. Through his 3-year MiLB career, Saggese has an .878 OPS and a 131 wRC+. Not only did he lead all of minor league baseball in both hits and total bases this season, he also won Texas League MVP.

Saggese’s impressive .551 SLG in AA this season can be credited to his fantastic barrel accuracy skills. Despite his 90th percentile exit velocity hovering around 103 mph, he’s able to put the ball in the gap and over the fence consistently due to his near 40% Sweet-Spot%. He’s a line drive machine.

Saggese is one of, if not the best pure hitter in the Cardinals minor league system. His arm strength will likely keep him at second base, but he has the potential to be a top hitter at the position. There’s a lot to look forward to with Thomas Saggese.

FFG: Hit Tool First Versatile INF

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: .290/.355/20 HR/10 SB

Variance: Low

Buy/Sell: Hold/Sell

8. Gordon Graceffo, RHP, 23, 6’4”/210

Drafted in the 5th round in 2021, Graceffo has a large frame and one of the deeper arsenals in the Cardinals system. While he struggled a bit in AAA in 2023, he showed some positives in terms of his development.

In the last two seasons combined, he’s traveled from High-A to Double and Triple-A. He’s posted a 3.71 ERA with above-average strikeout stuff and has induced poor contact quality for the most part.

His fastball is solid, but needs some adjustments. While he did get up to 99.4 mph in his last outing of the season, it was out of relief, so a velocity boost was expected. Nonetheless, it’s difficult for him to get whiffs on the pitch because he doesn’t throw it high enough in the zone and it still only has an average ride.

Graceffo’s gyro slider has always been his best pitch. It has returned a 39% Whiff% across the last two seasons. This is a really strong weapon in his arsenal, and it’s created a fantastic tunnel with his 4-seamer.

His curveball is really the pitch that brought him back a step this year. After earning a 44% Whiff% on it last season, that number dropped to 23% this year. While an increase in competition level has an effect on this, he’ll need to find the grip on it again moving forward.

I’m confident in Graceffo’s development. If he can sustain velocity deep into games and elevate his fastball more often, he’ll start to look like his 2022 self again. Overall, he’s a hard-throwing SP who has a lot of upside with his arsenal.

FFG: SP5/Reliver

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: 160 IP/4.00 ERA/160 K

Variance: Medium

Buy/Sell: Hold

9. Leonardo Bernal, C, 19, 6’0”/200

The Cardinals signed Leonardo Bernal out of Panama in 2021. The 19-year-old switch-hitting catcher has posted a 113 wRC+ in his first two professional seasons (both at Low-A).

Bernal has a smooth swing and an attractive profile. His OBP jumped from .316 to .381 this year, but it was at the sacrifice of some power. He saw a 92-point decrease in his SLG. Why?

Leonardo Bernal walked at a 15% clip this season compared to just 7% last year while also decreasing his K% by two percent as well. His contact percentage jumped nearly 10%, but he may have traded some power for more contact. While this approach isn’t necessarily bad, it’s something to look out for in the future. Bernal also dealt with an injury in early August that ended his season.

Bernal also has an exceptional arm, as his top throw velocity ranked 4th in the FSL among catchers. He’s projected as an above-average defensive catcher.

Overall, Bernal brings a lot to the table. He’s still only 19 and has posted impressive metrics in his professional tenure so far. He’s got a really bright future.

FFG: High OBP C2

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: .265/.365 OBP/15 HR/2 SB

Variance: High

Buy/Sell: Buy

10. Zack Showalter, RHP, 19, 6’2”/195

Acquired in the Jack Flaherty trade last August, Showalter feels like a hidden gem. In his 21 innings at Low-A with Baltimore and St. Louis, he posted a 2.95 ERA and 28% K%.

Showalter dealt with an injury towards the end of the season, but he averaged 15 batters faced at Low-A, which is roughly four innings. I assume he’ll be built up next year, as he’s still just 19.

Showalter throws his 4-seamer from a very low arm slot with a vertical approach angle of -4º. Pitchers like Paul Sewald, Alexis Diaz, and Joe Ryan have similar fastball shapes. He gets solid carry from a low slot and enters the zone at a flat angle, which combats the uppercut swing of the hitter making it difficult to barrel up.

His arsenal also includes a slider and changeup. Both play off his fastball well, especially his slider, but the development of his changeup is key moving forward. If he’s going to become a full time starter, he’s gonna need the CH to be solid.

He has one of the highest ceilings in the organization. As long as he stays healthy, he should climb up the rankings. Probably the most underrated arm in the system.

FFG: SP5/RP

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: 140 IP/4.00 ERA/145 K

Variance: High

Buy/Sell: Hold/Buy

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