San Francisco Giants Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts
Discover sleepers and breakouts from the San Francisco Giants for dynasty fantasy baseball both on the MLB and prospect side.
With dynasty season ramping up, it is time to talk about some sleepers, breakouts, and busts for each team. You can find our rankings and reports to see how we at the Dynasty Dugout value players for your dynasty leagues, but I also feel like it’s helpful to truly identify whether I believe a player can be a breakout or not. Here is where we call our shots on players, I think, require a call to action in dynasty, whether it be to buy or sell that player.
San Francisco Giants Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts
MLB Sleeper: Thairo Estrada, 2B
Estrada is one of the more underrated players at second base and one I am picking to have a strong season in 2024. His overall line of .271/.315/.416 with 14 home runs and 23 stolen bases in 2023 was fine, but was defined by pre-injury and post-injury.
Before being placed on the IL on May 27 with a wrist injury, Estrada was hitting .301 with six home runs and 13 stolen bases in 206 plate appearances. He missed just ten days but still seemed bothered by the injury and later missed a month after being hit on hand and fracturing it.
After coming back from the fractured hand, Estrada hit just .269/.296/.396 with five home runs and five stolen bases in 206 plate appearances. Look for him to be a big bounceback with a healthy 2024 season.
MLB Breakout: Mason Black, RHP
A third-round find out of Lehigh University, Mason Black had a successful college career but has taken things up a notch as a professional. Pitching a career-high 123.2 innings in 2023, Black posted a 3.71 ERA and 155 strikeouts.
Black features a mid-90s fastball that gets up to 98 from a low-release height and VAA. When he locates it well up in the zone, he misses a ton of bats. He pairs it with a sweeper that has nearly 15 inches of horizontal break and late movement to deceive hitters. Black is comfortable throwing it to both righties and lefties, getting whiffs from both.
The cutter was a new pitch in 2023, or at least one that he began to use more often, giving him a nice bridge between his fastball and sweeper. Black rounds out his arsenal with a changeup that is inconsistent with talks of it being shelved completely.
With the fastball and slider combo and a new cutter, Black has set himself up to be a starter long-term. The biggest question is, can he throw enough strikes? I believe we are set to find out in 2024 as Black should get plenty of opportunity in the Giants rotation and possibly make 15-to-20 starts.
MLB Bust: Marco Luciano, SS
Luciano is slated to be the starting shortstop for the Giants as things stand, and I am not sure how that plays out. Long term, Luciano still has a chance to develop into a fine hitter. But as a 22 year old who has severely struggled with contact, more development time in the minors is likely needed. If Luciano does struggle in the majors, his dynasty stock will take an even further nose dive.
There has never been any denying the power, as Luciano is averaging a home run every 19 at-bats as a Minor Leauger, and he even reached the Majors in 2023 as a 21-year-old. Impressive bat speed is evident in the exit velocities as Luciano posted a 109 mph 90th percentile exit velocity ranking among the top-end minor leaguers. The average exit velocity of 92 mph was also highly impressive.
The contact skills are the question and have seemingly regressed each year, but he is surprisingly a patient hitter. With a zone contact rate under 75 percent and an overall contact rate of 67 percent, Luciano has 30-grade contact numbers. If these numbers don’t improve this year, Luciano is highly likely to struggle in the Majors, leading me to want to get off him now in a dynasty league.
Prospect Sleeper: Victor Bericoto, OF
Bericoto has flown under the radar for quite some time despite strong performance and still being rather young. Spending his 21-year-old season split between High-A and Double-A, Bericoto mashed 27 home runs while posting a slash of .272/.329/.511.
An aggressive hitter, Bericoto swung at 50 percent of pitches he saw, but put enough balls in play, making contact at 71.5 percent clip. The strikeout rate was respectable at 22 percent, but Bericoto also plays down in an OBP format due to the aggressive nature and the fact he walked around eight percent of the time.
The power is the name of the game with Bericoto, though, as evident by his 27 home runs, but the exit velcoities jump off the page. He checked in with a 107 mph 90th percentile exit velocity in 2023, putting the power firmly plus while he posted a max of 120 in 2022.
Bericoto is highly under the radar in most prospect circles, but I'm intrigued by his potential as a power hitter.
Prospect Breakout: Rayner Arias, OF
Arias was the Giants’ prized possession in the 2023 international signing period, landing a $2.6 million bonus and immediately taking off in the Dominican Summer League. Unfortunately, a shoulder injury limited him to just 16 games, but Arias made his presence known, slashing .414/.540/.793 with four home runs and 12 extra-base hits.
Having a quiet pre-swing approach, Arias uses an explosive lower half to generate plenty of bat speed. His approach was very good in a small sample, walking 20 percent of the time while striking out just north of 14 percent while posting low chase rates.
With an athletic frame like Arias has, you can dream of him adding more good weight and getting more power, even though it is already advanced for his age. Even though it was only a small DSL sample, Arias impressed and might be a huge riser in 2024 if healthy.