Revisiting 2024 Prospect Breakout Picks: NL Central
Chris Clegg reviews his preseason NL Central breakout prospect picks.
Each preseason, I make my picks for breakout prospects heading into the season. I pick two players from each organization. This week we will be reviewing those picks to see how we did. Accountability is always important. Not just discussing the hits but also the misses. The process of making the picks and why things happened the way they did are important.
So let’s dive in. Who were the prospects I picked preseason in the NL Central and how did we fare on the picks?
2024 NL Central Breakout Prospects
Chicago Cubs
Jefferson Rojas, SS, 18, 5’11”/190
What Chris Said:
This one feels like cheating a bit as Rojas is already a top 100 prospect for me, but I still think the breakout goes further. Rojas seems to be a blossoming star in the Cubs system after spending just one game at the complex level before spending the entire season at Single-A Myrtle Beach. Rojas signed for $1 million in January 2022 and immediately hit the ground running as a 17-year-old in the Dominican Summer League, hitting .303/.391/.407 with one home run and 15 stolen bases in 45 games.
Considering Rojas skipped the complex level almost entirely, he still posted the fourth-highest OPS(.790) and wRC+(126) among 18-year-olds in full-season ball. Maybe the seven home runs and .268/.345/.404 slash doesn’t jump off the page, but it is essential to remember that Myrtle Beach, Chicago’s Single-A park, is one of the worst parks for hitters in the minors.
The swing is simple and direct to the ball without sacrificing power. Rojas showcased the ability to hit the ball hard to all fields in my live looks this year and handled all pitch types well. He has grown into more power, largely due to just getting bigger. When he signed, Rojas was listed at 5’8”, but is now listed at 5’10”/150 lb, people connected to Rojas tell me he is actually 5’11”/190 lb now, making him a much more physically imposing player than someone 5’8”/150.
Rojas played a fine shortstop in my looks and has a strong enough arm to stick at the position, especially considering the strong athlete that he is. Rojas has strong contact skills, positing a 77 percent contact rate, and has above-average power projection. If he continues to grow and add more power, his stock will soar. Now is the time to invest in Jefferson Rojas.
What Happened:
Rojas posted a rather uninspiring slash line of .245/.310/.336 with six home runs and 21 stolen bases. He did show tangible improvements under the hood, especially in the exit velocity department.
Michael Arias, RHP, 21, 6’0”/155
What Chris Said:
Arias is a small but athletic, right-handed pitcher with strong stuff. He burst on the scene in 2023, posting a 2.55 ERA with 64 strikeouts in 42 Single-A innings. The results were not quite as good after moving to High-A, posting a 5.77 ERA across 39 innings.
From an arsenal standpoint, Arias has very intriguing stuff, having a fastball that can occasionally reach triple digits, but consistently sitting 97 with nice running action. The changeup tunnels well and devastates both left- and right-handed hitters. They can get up to 92 mph but regularly sit in the high 80s. With the slider, it gets a ton of horizontal separation from both the changeup and fastball and honestly feels like it dies in mid-air before diving off while sitting 83-86.
Arias is an arm I would describe as still raw but having immense stuff. He will have to cut the walk rate down after posting a 14.5 percent walk rate and 61 percent strike rate. Those numbers give off reliever vibes, but given his age and stuff, there is still plenty of time for Arias to see his command progress into starter territory.
What Happened:
Arias pitched just 60 innings in relief, posting a 4.77 ERA with 72 strikeouts. He walked 48 batters and struggled mightily with command.
Milwaukee Brewers
Dylan O’Rae, INF/OF, 20, 5’7”/160
What Chris Said:
O’Rae won’t be the type of player with physicality that sees you when get your first look at him, but the skillset is one that can play. Featuring 70 grade speed and potentially a 70 grade hit tool, O’Rae posted a .349/.491/.395 slash line between the complex and Single-A Carolina in 2023. He walked 57 times and struck out just 37 while posting an 87 percent contact rate.
Impressive on the base paths as well, O’Rae swiped 44 bases last year in 60 games while being caught just six times. Reports on O’Rae’s power have been good as well. Obviously, a guy who hit zero home runs last year is not likely to blossom into a major power threat, but if O’Rae can develop into a ten-home run type with his high-end hit tool and speed, he just might be someone fantasy managers dream of.
What Happened:
The power did not come and O’Rae hit just one home run, but stole 62 bases. He struck out 21 percent of the time, but posted a .217/.356/.265 slash line.
Brett Wichrowski, RHP, 21, 6’2”/177
What Chris Said:
Wichrowski might be a major scouting find by the Brewers as a 13th-rounder in the 2023 draft out of Bryant University. Or maybe the development this offseason has just been elite. At Bryant in 2023, he pitched to a 4.50 ERA across 50 innings with 64 strikeouts and 25 walks. He averaged just 91.4 mph on his fastball last season but is now sitting in the mid-90s consistently and touching triple digits.
Wichrowski throws a deadly slider that sits in the mid-80s and also mixes in a cutter that bridges the gap between the two. The stuff has caught plenty of eyes this spring and Wichrowski seems poised for a potential breakout in 2024.
The command will be the big sticking point, but with any arm that makes the kind of jump stuff and velo-wise that Wichrowski did, there may be some struggles locating initially. The 21-year-old will begin the season in High-A, where he could see his value soar.
What Happened:
Wichrowski posted a 3.84 ERA across 89 innings with 82 strikeouts and 39 walks. After a bumpy stretch in Double-A, Wichrowski ended the season strong.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Garret Forrester, 1B, 22, 6’1”/208
What Chris Said:
After a strong career at Oregon State, the Pirates selected Forrester in the third round of the 2023 draft. Each season, Forrester seemed to improve, and he wrapped up his college career with a .326/.470/.500 slash with 26 home runs in 177 games.
Forrester had one of the lowest chase rates in college baseball at 11 percent and walked more than he struck out. His zone contact rate was north of 86 percent the overall contact rate of 80 percent was rather intriguing as well.
The question lies with the power. Forrester posted a 106 mph 90th percentile exit velocity in 2023 with metal, but the average exit velocity of 88.3 left a little to be desired. If he can hit 15 home runs with high OBP numbers, Forrester will move up the rankings.
What Happened:
Forrester accumulated just 264 plate appearances due to injury and was traded to Miami at the deadline. He hit just one home run and had 14 doubles while slashing .243/.386/.324.
Patrick Reilly, RHP, 22, 6’3”/208
What Chris Said:
The results never matched Reilly’s arsenal while at Vanderbilt, as he pitched to a 5.25 ERA across 144 innings. Strikeouts were never an issue as he posted a career 28 percent strikeout rate, but the command has ultimately held him back as he walked 14 percent of batters at Vanderbilt.
If he can figure out the command, the arsenal could play up and turn Reilly into a solid starting pitcher. In college, his fastball sat 94-95 mph with high spin and nearly 19 inches of IVB on average. He pairs it with a mid-80s slider that averages 2650 RPM. Reilly’s changeup grades out better, sitting in a similar velocity band as his slider, but averaging 14 inches of fade, giving the pitch nice separation from the slider. Reilly also mixes in a low-90s cutter.
Right now, Reilly profiles better as a reliever due to command, but if he can harness his strike-throwing ability and lower the walk rate near ten percent, Reilly could be a serviceable starting pitcher.
What Happened:
Reilly was also traded, but to Baltimore and has a successful season splitting time between High-A and Double-A, posting a 3.47 ERA across 119 innings with 146 strikeouts.
Cincinnati Reds
Leo Balcazar, INF, 19, 5’10”/190
What Chris Said:
Balcazar seemed primed for a breakout in 2023, but it was unfortunately put to halt due to a torn ACL just 18 games into the season. After a strong 2022 season at the Complex Level in which Balcazar slashed .322/.411/.476 with four home runs, he was slashing .324/.427/.471 in Single-A Daytona.
Balcazar has the makings of a top-of-the-order shortstop with strong contact and on-base skills. He brings a simple approach to the plate and does not try to do too much, hitting the ball where it is pitched. He currently shows good gap power but can generate over-the-fence power with the torque in his lower half.
He has grown and filled out his frame and appears bigger than his listed height and weight. Reports have even stated that Balcazar has added 10 pounds of muscle during his rehab work for his knee and is back swinging the bat regularly. He is stated to be back for the beginning of the 2024 season, which could see his stock rise significantly.
What Happened:
Balcazar slashed .264/.295/.354 with six home runs and nine stolen bases. He did finish the year strong, hitting all six home runs in the second half and posted a .309 batting average in his final 41 games after the all-star break.
Adam Serwinowski, LHP, CIN, 19, 6’5”/190
What Chris Said:
Serwinowski is a 6’5” lefty who is local to me here in Greenville, South Carolina, and was drafted in the 15th round of the 2022 MLB Draft. He only threw one inning during his draft year at the complex but had a solid showing in 2023 in 27.1 innings pitched. Serwinowski had a 3.62 ERA with 43 strikeouts, which is good for a 40.2 percent clip.
Serwinowski has a fastball that sits in the mid-to-upper 90s, touching 97 with high IVB numbers. His curveball is a high-spinning pitch with an impressive two-plane break and a ton of sweeping action. He mixes in a changeup and a cutter on occasion.
The projectable frame and the funky release both leave me thinking there is room for more from Serwinowski. He will begin the season in Single-A Daytona, where we will get pitch data on him, which is encouraging.
What Happened:
Serwinowski took a big step forward, posting a 3.57 ERA in 85.2 innings with a 29 percent strikeout rate. Command and control were issues at times as Serwinowski walked over 12 percent of batters faced.
St. Louis Cardinals
Won-Bin Cho, OF, 20, 6’1”/200
What Chris Said:
The Cardinals signed Korean outfielder Won-Bin Cho in the international signing period at the beginning of 2022. While not putting up the biggest numbers to this point, Cho has been very productive on the field. Last season in Single-A Palm Beach, Cho put up a .270/.376/.389 slash with seven home runs and 32 stolen bases in 452 plate appearances.
Cho has shown the ability to hit the ball hard, posting up to a 111 mph exit velocity which was rather impressive from a 19 year old last season. The biggest issue so far has been the ground balls. Cho put the ball on the ground at a 50 percent rate in Single-A, a number that will need to trend in the right direction.
Some of the biggest positives for Cho have been his speed and his plate discipline. Posting low chase rates, Cho walked at a 14.2 percent rate and posted a .376 OBP in 2023. The 32 stolen bases were also a big positive.
Cho will spend the 2024 season as a 20-year-old where he could potentially take the next step forward.
What Happened:
My long-term love for Cho might be coming to an end. He saw the strikeout rate jump over ten percentage points to 31.3 percent and only hit two home runs while slashing .227/.307/.305.
Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, 23, 6’3”/200
What Chris Said:
Hjerpe has always been an arm that does not rely on velocity but the deception he creates from a funky arm slot and release point that creates excellent movement profiles. In the Arizona Fall League, Hjerpe was sitting between 88 and 91 mph, but this spring the velocity was way up, sitting in the 92-93 mph range.
His changeup sits in the low-80s with 17 inches of fade, and the slider went the opposite direction with 17 inches of sweeping action, sitting in the upper 70s.
If the velocity stays in the 92-93 range, Hjerpe will soar up the rankings and be a consensus top 100 prospect.
What Happened:
Hjerpe spent time hurt again and only pitched 52.1 innings. He did post a respectable 3.27 ERA with 76 strikeouts and 28 walks.