Prospects to Target in Redraft (NFBC Draft & Holds): Outfield
Chris Clegg breaks down outfield prospects to target in 2025 redraft leagues.
This week, I will be breaking down prospects that you should be targeting in NFBC Draft and Hold formats. These articles will be evergreen all offseason and applicable to NFBC formats and all redrafts. This article will go extremely deep, given the nature of the 50-round draft and hold format that NFBC hosts.
All ADPs referenced will be from NFBC Draft Champions, and I will give thoughts on their potential value in relation to that ADP.
Outfield Prospects to Target in Redraft
Jasson Domínguez, OF, 22, New York Yankees, 5’9”/190, MLB (ADP: 148)
One of the most hyped prospects on the international market in the last ten years, Domínguez, deemed “The Martian,” was unfairly compared to players like Mike Trout, Bo Jackson, and Mickey Mantle. No one can live up to those kinds of comps, but Domínguez has been pretty dang if we say so ourselves.
Domínguez made his MLB debut in 2023 and was dominant before a UCL injury ended his season after just 33 plate appearances. An oblique injury in addition to the UCL limited him in 2024, but when on the field, the results were good. Spending the majority of the year in Triple-A, Domínguez slashed .314/.376/.504 with 11 home runs and 20 extra-base hits in 58 games. He stole 16 bases and was caught just once. While the MLB surface numbers were not great, Domínguez still put up quite strong numbers under the hood.
A few mechanical tweaks helped lead to the breakout in 2023, including limiting his leg kick and hand load.
The power is legit, as Domínguez posted a 90th percentile exit velocity of 108 mph, putting the power grade firmly plus or better. The contact rates also made a massive jump throughout his career. In the minors, Domínguez posted a 78 percent overall mark and an 89 percent in-zone contact rate. Those numbers carried over to the majors.
The speed has remained despite Domínguez’s body fluctuating in size throughout the early parts of his career. He stole 21 bases between the majors and minors and was caught just once.
Given how hard Domínguez hits the ball, he creates barrels often. People have been quick to point to his 62 percent ground ball rate in a small MLB sample, but it seems that it is primarily related to his oblique injury. For his career, that number has sat around 45 percent, a solid number given Domínguez’s batted ball profile. He is slated to be an everyday outfielder in 2025 for the Yankees and could be a favorite for AL Rookie of the Year.
Verdict: Domínguez seems to have lost a lot of shine among fantasy players and fantasy evaluators. I get it, the Yankees played Verdugo over him last year, but Domínguez dealt with multiple injuries and the Yankees were in the midst of a World Series run. Now, Domínguez will get to play everyday and should be a solid asset. I would buy at the price.
Dylan Crews, OF, 23, Washington Nationals, 5’11”/203, MLB (ADP: 150)
After being selected second overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, some struggles in Double-A started to cause some questions surrounding Crews. One of the most decorated college hitters in the last ten years, Crews posted a collegiate slash of .380/.498/.689 with 58 home runs across 983 plate appearances. He struck out just 15.5 percent of the time while walking 16.2 percent.
Crews put up solid numbers in Double-A and Triple-A in 2024, posting a combined slash of .270/.342/.451 with 13 home runs and 40 extra-base hits while stealing 25 bases. Sure, it was not a dominant showing, but Crews was good enough to earn a call-up to Washington, where he played his final 31 games.
While he did not light the world on fire and blossom into a superstar in year one as many hoped, the underlying data still looks strong. Crews posted a 90th percentile exit velocity north of 106 mph and an average of around 90, both solid marks.
From a contact standpoint, Crews posted above-average rates, 76 percent overall and 87 percent in-zone and both the contact and exit velocity data held into his MLB sample. Crews did show more chase, but I honestly think some of his aggression and higher swing rates are a good thing compared to what we see in college.
Posting strong sprint speeds and being highly efficient on the base paths led Crews to steal 37 bases in 2024 while only being caught eight times. Being strong in the field also helps his well-rounded profile and allows Crews to be a lock to be in the Nationals lineup every day in 2025 from Opening Day.
Verdict: At an ADP of 150, Crews feels like a great potential buy. The Nationals are going to let him run wild, and there is solid power in his profile. We know what Crews can do at this point, now he gets to play every day.
Roman Anthony, OF, 20, Boston Red Sox, 6’2”/200, AAA (ADP: 282)
Anthony followed an impressive 2023 season up with an even better one in 2024, pushing himself to the top of prospect rankings. In 119 games between Double-A and Triple-A, Anthony slashed .291/.396/.498 with 18 home runs and 54 extra-base hits. The combination of contact, plate discipline, power, speed, and defense make him a true five-category asset.
Starting with his contact and approach at the plate, Anthony starts with his hands and a slightly open stance. He uses a leg kick to create quite a wide stance, but helps create good hand-to-hip separation. Leading with his body, Anthony creates good lag with the bat thanks to his strong hands and electric bat speed. His bat speed ranks at the very top of all hitters in baseball.
Given the bat speed, the power metrics are off the charts, though, as Anthony has a 90th percentile exit velocity near 109 mph. Topping out north of 116 mph and showing solid average exit velocities, Anthony easily shows plus or better power. The biggest flaw with the power is a ground ball rate just shy of 48 percent which is something to watch.
The plate discipline skills are impressive, and Anthony knows the strike zone as well as anyone. He chased just 21 percent of pitches out of the zone. The contact skills follow along right with the discipline, as Anthony posted a 75 percent overall contact rate with an 83 percent in-zone mark.
Anthony is an above-average runner at present and stole 21 bases on 28 attempts last season. He is likely to slow down with age and as he continues to fill out his frame. Anthony is a plus glove as well with an above-average arm. He likely fits into the right field in Fenway Park, which plays to his strengths.
If you want to poke a hole in Anthony’s game, it is the amount of ground balls he hits. But considering how hard Anthony hits the ball, he is actually able to run higher BABIPs. With a slight tweak in the swing path, Anthony could unlock 30 home runs in the majors. The skills are there, and Anthony is going to be an awesome player for a long time.
Verdict: Anthony likely begins the season in Triple-A, but if you can sit on him for two months, the value could be there. You are looking at spending an 18th-20th round pick on him, so its not overly cheap, but the production you get from June forward could make it worth it.
Chase DeLauter, OF, 23, Cleveland Guardians, 6’3”/235, AAA (ADP: 389)
After a successful career at James Madison, the Guardians selected DeLauter with the 16th overall pick in the 2022 draft. While injuries have been a significant factor in his career, when DeLauter was on the field, the performance was strong.
Standing at 6’3”, DeLauter has one of the best combinations of athleticism and size in the minors. The swing takes flack from some because it is compact and has a short follow-through, but that has not affected his ability to hit for power or make consistent contact. The barrel control is elite, and the swing creates a natural loft.
If you have questions about whether DeLauter’s swing can play, look under the hood. The power is easily plus based on the average and 90th percentile exit velocities. He lifts the ball with ease and posts ideal launch angles consistently.
The contact is strong, and DeLauter posted a zone contact rate of 89 percent with an overall contact rate of 87 percent. The plate discipline is also strong, as he picks his spots well and chases just 21 percent of pitches out of the zone, putting the strike zone recognition at plus or better.
Delauter is also an above-average runner but has not been overly aggressive on the base paths. He stole one base in 2024 but also spent time hurt. While the capabilities are there, how much he will run as he progresses through the system remains to be seen.
You could argue that DeLauter is a 60 grade with his hit tool, power, and speed. When you see him play, he looks like the best player on the field. Health and lower body injuries have been a major issue. After playing just 57 games in 2023, that number dropped to 39 in 2024. A healthy 2025 should see DeLauter spend most of the season in the majors.
Verdict: DeLauter has to stay healthy. If he does, there is a path to value at the ADP given his combo of skills. Given that he has averaged just 205 plate appearances per season over the last two years, it is hard to envision him playing more than half a season in Cleveland. Pass.
Colby Thomas, OF, 24, Athletics, 5’10”/190, AAA (ADP: 444)
After a strong 2023 season in which Thomas hit 18 home runs and had 63 extra-base hits, he took things up a notch in 2024. Between Double-A and Triple-A, Thomas mashed 31 home runs and finished the year with 80 extra-base hits, lapping the minor league field in that department.
Being on the smaller side, Thomas aggressively swings at the plate. He made substantial power games as well, seeing his 90th percentile exit velocity jump in the plus range, just shy of 107 mph. Not only did he hit the ball hard, but Thomas pulled batted balls at a high clip and had one of the highest air percentages in baseball at 70 percent.
From a contact standpoint, the hyper-aggressive approach is shown. Thomas chased 35 percent of pitches he saw out of the zone but also swung at 83 percent of pitches in the zone. The contact skills do leave some pause as Thomas made contact on just 70 percent of swings and saw that number drop to 67 percent in Triple-A. On pitches in the zone, Thomas posted a mark shy of 80 percent.
Being one of the best athletes in the system, Thomas checks a lot of boxes. He hits for power and has ideal angles on batted balls, bringing good speed to the table. The question is, can he make enough contact against MLB pitching? A contact rate against breaking balls just north of 60 percent is concerning. On top of that, Thomas made contact on just 63 percent of fastballs 94 mph or higher and had a .276 xwOBA against.
Verdict: Thomas is probably my biggest sell in the prospect circles. His value is through the roof and there are some holes in the swing that worry me against big league pitching. Pass.
Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF, 22, Minnesota Twins, 5’11”/210, AAA (ADP: 510)
If any prospect has the upside of being the top prospect in baseball, it could be Emmanuel Rodriguez, who has one of the best toolsets of all minor leaguers. Injuries have been the story of Rodriguez’s career and probably kept him from making his MLB debut. Splitting time between Double-A and Triple-A, Rodriguez slashed a strong .280/.459/.567 with nine home runs and 25 extra-base hits in 47 games.
The power is off the charts with Rodriguez, who has a strong, compact frame. He starts with the bat on his shoulder before lifting the barrel and using a quick leg kick as a timing mechanism. His lower half is strong and starts the torque before his hands fly through with impressive bat speed. His 110 mph 90th percentile exit velocity was near the top of all minor league hitters, and his average exit velocity was north of 91 mph.
Rodriguez hits the ball at ideal angles, creating a high barrel rate thanks to the amount of hard-hit balls. Given the impressive max exit velocity near the top of all hitters in baseball, you can dream of a consistent 30 home run season for Rodriguez.
One of the more passive hitters in baseball, Rodriguez swung at just 31 percent of pitches, which was one of the lowest swing rates in all of baseball. That is not a bad thing, though, as he has one of the most discerning eyes, chasing less than 10 percent of pitches out of the zone. Anything below 20 percent is considered high-end, which shows how strong Rodriguez’s chase rate is.
The contact rates need to improve, as Rodriguez made contact on less than 70 percent of pitches for the last three seasons. Part of the contact issue is from working too deep into counts and not getting great pitches to hit. It's highly possible that Rodriguez is a below-average batting average typer but has elite OBPs. He is still an above-average runner who steals bases effectively. He stole nine bases last season, all in the first three weeks of the year. The hand injury prevented him from attempting to steal.
The upside is immense here as Rodriguez plays a strong outfield with a big arm. If the hit tool progresses and he can stay healthy, Rodriguez should make the majors in 2025.
Verdict: I still believe Emmanuel Rodriguez can be the best player in the minors if healthy. Much like DeLauter he has not stayed on the field, but the injuries have been more flukey. With a healthy spring and a strong start in Triple-A, Rodriguez will be in the Majors in no-time. This is where I want to take my upside shot. Buy.
Chandler Simpson, OF, 24, Tampa Bay Rays, 5’11”/170, AA (ADP: 532)
Simpson is as fun of a profile as you find in the Minors, making legitimate contact with every pitch and having faster than 80-grade speed. He easily swipes bases and beats out singles to the first baseman, yes I have seen that in person.
The contact skills were legit. Simpson made contact on 91 percent of swings overall and 95 percent in the zone. If looking at contact rates, those are among the best in the minors. In doing so, Simpson posted a .355/.410/.397 slash with just 16 extra-base hits but 104 stolen bases.
Simpson put the ball on the ground at a rate north of 53 percent and just beat out balls to first. When on first, he is going to steal nearly every time. Having just one professional home run, it was an inside-the-park homer. Power will never be a part of Simpson’s game, which is okay.
The profile is interesting and could make the needle hard to thread because Simpson is a fringey defender with a well below average arm. Simpson is one of the more challenging profiles for me to evaluate because while the hit tool and speed are elite, the rest of the profile is not there. Enrique Bradfield Jr. of the Orioles can make this profile work because of his glove and having more power. It will be interesting to see what the Rays do with him long term.
Verdict: Simpson has been flying up board and has gone as high as 330 in a draft. I just don’t like one trick ponies and there is zero impact in his bat. Simpson has been able to get on base enough in the minors to be an elite stolen base asset. But given his lack of defensive value, how much is he going to play in Tampa this year? Pass.
Jacob Melton, OF, 24, Houston Astros, 6’2”/208, AAA (ADP: 607)
After being selected in the second round of the 2022 draft out of Oregon State, Melton enjoyed a successful first full pro season in 2023, hitting 23 home runs and swiping 46 bases between High-A and Double-A. Having an impressive frame, Melton is a strong athlete with a smooth swing from the left side of the plate, creating effortless power when he makes contact. He glides in the outfield and is capable of playing center field.
Melton seemingly regressed in 2024, and the surface numbers did not look as strong. He still stole 30 bases and was caught four times, but he slashed .253/.310/.426 with 15 home runs. While he missed time with an injury, Melton took a step back.
The good news is, under the hood, things still look good. An 88 mph average exit velocity is respectable, but a 106 mph 90th percentile stands out in a big way. He also maxed out at 114 mph, showing the raw power upside.
From a contact perspective, Melton posted an overall mark of around 76 percent and an in-zone rate of nearly 84 percent. He was more aggressive this year and chased pitches out of the zone at a 30 percent mark, but still kept his strikeouts in check.
The changeup gave Melton fits, which is interesting. He had a contact rate of just 54 percent against that pitch type and hit .200 against them. Breaking balls were a similar case, as Melton made contact on just 70 percent of those pitch types. Fastballs, however, Melton handled with ease.
Melton is a plus runner with plus-fielding skills. The power metrics suggest potential above-average home run output, but Melton will need to lift the ball more. His profile is well-rounded, and he is advanced and ready for the Majors. He should spend a large portion of 2025 in the Astros outfield.
Verdict: Have you seen the Astros outfield? Melton is a well-rounded player with a real shot at 400 plate appearances this year. Easy Buy.
Alan Roden, OF, 25, Toronto Blue Jays, 5’11”/215, AAA (ADP: 651)
Roden is one of the more underrated hitters in the minors. A 2022 third-rounder out of Creighton University, Roden has done nothing but hit since joining the Blue Jays organization, having a career .289 average and .407 OBP.
He finished the season hotter than any hitter in baseball. From July 13 forward, Roden posted an impressive .366/.447/.591 slash with just a 13.5 percent strikeout rate while walking nearly 12 percent of the time.
Roden has always been known for his strong hit tool, posting a contact rate near 84 percent overall this year. His zone contact rate of 92 percent stands out, and he picks his spots well, chasing just 26 percent of pitches out of the zone.
Roden pairs those skills with a 90th percentile exit velocity that was just shy of the MLB average at 103 mph. While he consistently gets to the pull side, over 50 percent of those batted balls were on the ground. The overall launch angle on pulled balls was seven degrees.
The underrated part of Roden’s game is his athleticism. You may not see that by looking at him, but Roden moves quickly and gets faster in space. He had four triples in 2024 and turned several singles into hustle doubles. He was also successful on 14 of 15 stolen base attempts.
I think Roden can make some slight tweaks to increase his home run output, but we are talking about someone who hit 16 this year with 46 extra-base hits. He swiped 14 bags and has impressive contact skills. Roden is going to be a powerful MLB hitter very soon.
Verdict: Blue Jays outfield, a nightmare outside of Springer. Roden is one of the most underrated prospects in the minors. He may spend half the year in Toronto and be a very solid hitter. Buy.
Denzel Clarke, OF, 24, Athletics, 6’4”/220, AA (ADP: 731)
A roller coaster ride is how I would describe Clarke’s season. Month to month, the results were inconsistent, but Clarke finished the year on a high note and a slash of .269/.339/.445 with 13 home runs and 36 stolen bases. The strikeout rate ended the year just under 30 percent but improved all season along with the contact rates.
From June 1 forward, Clarke slashed .304/.370/.510 with a collective 24.7 percent strikeout rate. Ten of his home runs came over those 77 games, and he added 32 extra-base hits with 28 stolen bases. When you think of toolsy, upside-type players, Clarke checks many boxes. He has a 6’4”/220 frame with plus raw power and plus speed.
Clark has strong plate skills and, for the most part, makes good swing decisions. The contact comes and goes in spurts, though. If his gains to end the seasons stick, there could be a very exciting player.
The athlete is off the charts, and Clarke is a plus centerfielder, making jumps and tracking impressive balls. The speed is easily plus, and the ball jumps off Clarke’s bat. Being added to the 40-man roster, he should have a shot to play in the Athletics outfield in 2025.
Verdict: If you want an Athletics outfield prospect, Clarke is the one to buy. His defensive value is huge and his bat has steadily improved. As a 48-50 round pick? Easy Buy.
You always crush it, my man. Love this series, as it correlates nicely with card collectors.