Prospect Buys for 2025: Carson Benge, NYM

Benge Eating

Carson Benge, OF, New York Mets

Buy: In the 15-20 range of FYPDs.

Usually when prospect writers refer to a guy as “moldable clay” they mean an arm that has had trouble finding the zone consistently, or could use some refining with his breaking stuff, or an innocuous third reason, but has a surplus of potential otherwise. Benge is from the same soft, damp soil but stands in the batter’s box rather than on the mound (he had some of those traits as a pitcher with Oklahoma State, but he was drafted to play the field).

Benge had a stellar two-year career in the Big 12 that culminated in 25 home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 1.064 OPS over 552 plate appearances. There are plenty of players who can and have matched that production over a two year period – 174 players eclipsed that mark in 2024 alone – but the underlying markers in Benge’s profile point toward a potential plus hit, plus power profile. He demonstrated a commendable combination of bat-to-ball (84.0% zone contact) and swing decisions (20% chase) and an EV90 of 106.4 mph, roughly commensurate with the big league average after applying a conversion from metal to wood. His hands are what allow him to get to that pop; his bat speed is regularly cited as top of the scale and allows him to slug beyond his measurable height and weight would otherwise suggest. It’s reminiscent of Jackson Chourio in the sense that he can retain his athleticism and still produce high-end exits (this isn’t a comp but rather the most immediate illustrative example, to be clear).

Here’s the rub: he’s about as unoptimized as it gets. His entire swing operation is loud – there is a lot of extraneous movement – and he’ll likely need to clean it up to maximize outcomes on hard-hit batted balls. He didn’t put a ton of balls in the air this spring, and of those he did, fewer were pulled. In some sense this is a bet on natural ability and Mets player development; if he can change the shape of his batted ball distribution, the results will follow – and be quite good.