Prospect Buys for 2025: Alejandro Rosario, TEX

You can call my name, as a matter of fact, Alejandro

Alejandro Rosario, RHP, Texas Rangers

Buy: Where you can acquire for less than a top-10 pitching prospect.

Pitchers aren’t drafted the way they used to be. Rosario’s career 6.47 ERA, 20.9% strikeout rate, and 9.9% walk rate at the University of Miami don’t scream fifth round production, and yet the Rangers called his name with the 144th overall selection in last summer’s draft. Pitch modeling and a greater understanding of pitch traits that translate to success often mean characteristics are prioritized over results on day two of the draft.

The Rangers’ pitching development team liked Rosario’s tenacity attacking the zone and saw an opportunity to rework his arsenal. One of the biggest unlocks for him this year has been the revitalization of his splitter that was shelved in college due to poor command but has been a weapon in 2024. He also worked to locate his fastball lower in the zone, where its natural sink generated a ground ball rate of 54.2% at Single-A and 43.5% in High-A. Given its velocity and low three-quarters release, the fastball also plays well at the top of the zone on occasion and contributed to his whopping 36.9% strikeout rate. He rounds out his arsenal with a mid-80’s slider that he commands well and flummoxes righties with.

The risks are plainly evident; he probably won’t pitch in the majors in 2025 as he threw a career high 88.1 innings this year, just under half of which came at High-A, and he throws baseballs for a living – so the extended incubation period introduces more risk he gets hurt before returning any value. On the other hand, he’s got three above-average pitches (or better), induces a lot of weak or on-the-ground contact, and throws plenty of strikes, all of which are strongly positive markers. I’ll have him hovering in the back half of my top 10 pitching prospects when I write the 100 this off-season and will be buying where I can acquire him for less.