Positional Prospect Ranks For Points Leagues: Third Base

Zac Beck's Prospect Positional Rankings for Dynasty Points Leagues

If you missed Beck’s other positional rankings, check them out here:

Zac Beck's Points League Prospect Ranks: Catcher

Positional Prospect Ranks For Points Leagues: First Base

Positional Prospect Ranks For Points Leagues: Second Base

1. Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles, 21, - 6’2, 210 lbs

‘22: 503 PA, .297/.416/.531/.946, 19 HR, 22 SB, 23.1% K, 15.7% BB (AA, AAA)

Henderson simply possesses the best combination of ceiling and floor on this list. His MLB debut (.259/.348/.440 in 116 ABs, good for a 125 wRC+) was a compelling sign that the core skills will translate favorably. 

His pitch selection is impressive, as evidenced by his 12.1% BB rate and 21.3% O-swing percentage. He posted a 111.1 mph max exit velocity with the big league club. His average exit velocity at the big league level was 4.2 mph higher than league average. The bat profiles as impact, whether he ultimately lands at SS, 3B, or 2B.

The flaws are few and far between. If you’re insistent on picking nits, his groundball rate has steadily climbed as he’s progressed – bumping from 40.2% at AA to 59.8% in a small sample in the bigs. That could hold him back from gaudy power numbers. He’s also shown some weakness against left-handed pitching, something to keep an eye on as we gather more data at the big league level.

Recommendation: Hold

2. Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals, 20 - 6’5, 220 lbs

‘22: 536 PA, .306/.388/.510/.898, 19 HR, 22 SB, 21.6% K, 10.8% BB (AA)

I kept notes while getting live looks in the Arizona Fall League. The note for Jordan Walker was concise – he’s different. He’s physically astonishing, capable of moving much quicker than a man of his size should be, and uses all of that physicality to punish baseballs. As a Brewers’ fan, I’m preparing myself for a decade plus of Jordan Walker-related high blood pressure.

Walker’s raw power and approach are the ingredients for a classic corner masher. He gets to his power without selling out for it (21.6%/10.8% K/BB at AA). Should the approach hold, he’ll be a middle-of-the-order monster for a long, long time.

Walker profiles best as a corner infielder where he’s played the majority of his games. The Cardinals played him in right field in the Fall League, where his arm should play well but the routes and reads are still an adventure, in order to open opportunities for the bat and avoid burying him behind Arenado and Goldschmidt.

Recommendation: Hold

3. Miguel Vargas, Los Angeles Dodgers, 23 - 6’3, 205 lbs

‘22: 520 PA, .304/.404/.511/.915, 17 HR, 16 SB, 14.6% K, 13.7% BB (AAA)

Vargas just hits. Across his three seasons as a minor leaguer, he’s never posted a sub-.300 batting average or a sub-.380 OBP. He owns hardware for winning the Double-A Central batting title in 2021. He’s widely underrated because his tools aren’t as loud as many other top-20 prospects but his value in points leagues should not be.

He’s a very high floor, moderate ceiling prospect (at least relative to the two names preceding him here). There’s a little prospect fatigue and valuations of him range anywhere between #6 and #30 overall. He’s a slam dunk buy if you find an owner who believes he’s closer to the thirty end of that spectrum.

Recommendation: Buy

4. Josh Jung, Texas Rangers, 25 - 6’2, 214 lbs

‘22: 135 PA, .266/.326/.540/.866, 9 HR, 1 SB, 25.9% K, 5.2% BB (Rk, AAA)

Jung was a popular option at third base in a lot of early 2022 NFBC drafts as he came off a 2021 season wherein he posted a .326/.398/.592 slash with 19 homers across 78 games in Double- and Triple-A. The luster has worn off since he sustained a labrum injury while lifting weights in February of 2022. Some fantasy owners are blessed with patience. In this instance I think it’ll pay off. 

2021 gave us reason to believe Jung could be a .270 - .285 hitter with consistent 25 homer pop. I’ve not given up on that potential, and apparently Jung hasn’t forgotten how to generate lift. 9 home runs in 124 ABs in Triple-A this year should be taken seriously.

Recommendation: Hold

5. Brett Baty, New York Mets, 23 - 6’3, 210 lbs

‘22: 420 PA, .315/.410/.533/.943, 19 HR, 2 SB, 24.8% K, 11.7% BB (AA)

Although Francisco Alvarez dominates the discussion of the Mets’ farm, Baty is an interesting prospect in his own right. He features a left-handed swing, rare for the hot corner, with plenty of contact ability and tremendous power. He posted a 113 mph max exit velocity in just a handful of games, landing him in the 89th percentile of all big leaguers. In 237 career minor league games he’s carried an almost .300 average and tallied 38 homers – numbers that are slightly deflated by a poor debut season in 2019.

Baty is underrated in prospect circles because he doesn’t present much stolen base upside, if any at all. To hell with steals in points leagues – contact, on-base-skills, and power reign supreme.

Recommendation: Buy

6. Cam Collier, Cincinnati Reds, 18 - 6’2, 210 lbs

‘22: 35 PA, .370/.514/.630/1.144, 2 HR, 0 SB, 17.1% K, 20.0% BB (Rk)

Every year there are fantasy players who use the results of the MLB draft to inform their strategy in FYPDs. Every year those players miss out on exceptional talent that falls because of the way draft money is designated in baseball. 

Collier is one of those exceptional talents. He has an extraordinarily mature approach for a 17-year-old paired with tremendous contact ability (90% zone contact) that makes for a profile I am enamored with. He’s not selling out power for contact either – he posted the highest wood bat max exit velocity of any prep bat available outside of Elijah Green. He’ll be volatile in FYPDs, likely landing somewhere between 5 and 10, but is every bit worth investing in at the price.

Recommendation: Buy

7. Coby Mayo, Baltimore Orioles, 21 - 6’5, 215 lbs

‘22: 439 PA, .247/.326/.456/.782, 19 HR, 5 SB, 26.0% K, 9.1% BB (Rk, A+, AA)

A graduate of the same high school that produced Anthony Rizzo and Jesus Luzardo, Mayo is a hulking 20-year-old third baseman who produces top of the scale exit velocities. He didn’t break out this year in the way many had hoped (myself included) and still struggles with swing and miss, but if he can make even average contact the home run potential is immense.

So far the hype has exceeded the true output. His K% ballooned to 34.5% in 145 plate appearances at Double-A, which is either indicative of a contact issue that will plague him moving forward or the symptom of moving quickly as a youngster. I don’t really want to find out.

Recommendation: Sell

8.  Mark Vientos, New York Mets, 23 - 6’4, 220 lbs

‘22: 427 PA, .280/.358/.519/.877, 24 HR, 0 SB, 28.6% K, 10.3% BB (AAA)

Vientos has seemingly been a prospect forever. It has always been a bat-first profile, but he really broke out in 2021 after making gains in instructs during the pandemic-lost 2020 year. That trajectory continued this year.

He’s the kind of player who could be an absolute menace… if he struck out less. He’s dead last on this list in K% at 28.6%. It was one tenth of a percentage point better in 2021.

Recommendation: Sell

9.  Colt Keith, Detroit Tigers, 21 - 6’3, 211 lbs

‘22: 216 PA, .301/.370/.544/.914, 9 HR, 4 SB, 19.4% K, 10.2% BB (A+)

Selected 132nd overall by the Tigers in the 2020 draft, Keith was in the midst of a breakout season in 2022 when his year was ended by a shoulder injury sliding back into first base. Keith was able to deposit 9 baseballs in the seats en route to a .544 slugging percentage before his injury in June.

I was very impressed with him on the offensive side of the ball when I got live looks at the AFL last fall. He managed to finish sixth in the league in batting average, fifth in on-base percentage, and in a thirteen-way tie (one of the quirks of a small sample) for third place in home runs with 3 in 61 PAs.

I’m not sure where the defensive home is. He looked shaky at 3rd base (and that’s being charitable) in the games I caught in Phoenix. 

Recommendation: Hold

10.  Deyvison De Los Santos, Arizona Diamondbacks, 19 - 6’1, 185 lbs

‘22: 560 PA, .306/.348/.499/.847, 22 HR, 5 SB, 26.3% K, 6.1% BB (A, A+, AA)

One of my favorite parts of the fall league this year was attending the first ever home run derby. Sure, they could have advertised it better. Sure, they could have made it easier to watch online. None of that mattered to me when Deyvison was hitting lasers over my head on the left field berm!

The AFL was challenging for De Los Santos. He was one of the youngest players there and it’s evident he’ll need to improve his approach as he faces advanced pitching. His 2022 season against more age-appropriate competition was very encouraging – the power is absolutely legitimate and he showed it off all year. He climbed 3 levels, finishing at Double-A (where he struggled in a small sample).

He’s risky but he’s exciting. He’s probably going to be relegated to first base which puts a lot of pressure on the bat.

Recommendation: Hold

11. Bryan Ramos, Chicago White Sox, 20 - 6’2, 225 lbs

‘22: 519 PA, .266/.338/.455/.792, 22 HR, 1 SB, 16.6% K, 8.7% BB (A+, AA)

The White Sox haven’t been shy about challenging their prospects and that’s certainly been true for Bryan Ramos. He entered 2022 at Hi-A where he impressed with his ability to limit Ks and and hit for power.

The line deteriorated a little at Double-A but he was very young for the level. He’ll get a chance to return to Birmingham at season’s open as a 21 year old. My eye shows perhaps above average contact ability and above average power with some concern about chase that hasn’t yet materialized into troubling K results. He’s pretty underrated and a strong start could propel him into a top-100 placement.

Recommendation: Buy

12.  Warming Bernabel, Colorado Rockies, 20 - 6’0, 180 lbs

‘22: 409 PA, .313/.370/.499/.869, 14 HR, 23 SB, 13.7% K, 7.6% BB (A, A+)

The shine of Bernabel’s 2022 season has been largely wiped out by a challenging AFL line over just 15 games. He’s one of the better offensive prospects in the Rockies system, having demonstrated excellent bat-to-ball skills (>80% contact at every stop), the ability to hit for average as he’s progressed through the lower levels of the minors, and what appears to be average power.

Recommendation: Hold

13.  Sterlin Thompson, Colorado Rockies, 21 - 6’4, 200 lbs

‘22: 111 PA, .307/.351/.436/.787, 2 HR, 3 SB, 25.2% K, 4.5% BB (Rk, A)

Thompson was one of the better collegiate bats in this year’s draft class. The Rockies selected the University of Florida standout 31st overall following a sophomore season in which he posted a .351/.444/.559 slash line.

He’s an interesting watch on tape. He certainly appears to have above average power, but his approach wasn’t geared toward unlocking it during his time at Florida. He’s happy to let the pitch come to him and take it the other way, which isn’t inherently bad, but will cap his power ceiling unless he’s willing to start hitting the ball out front. There wasn’t much to glean from his debut but I’ll be watching his progress in 2022 closely.

Recommendation: Hold

14.  Justyn-Henry Malloy, Detroit Tigers, 22 - 6’3, 212 lbs

‘22: 591 PA, .289/.408/.454/.862, 17 HR, 5 SB, 23.4% K, 16.5% BB (A+, AA, AAA)

I have a healthy amount of respect for Alex Anthopoulos and the Braves’ front office. Their draft selections in recent years have been worth paying attention to, but it’s also smart to pay attention to whom they are sending away. Malloy fits both sets of criteria and it’s got me in a tough mental bind.

His 2022 was really excellent. He ascended three levels, ending the year at Triple-A and then spending time in the AFL where he performed admirably. He projects to be a solid fantasy contributor without wowing in any particular department.

Recommendation: Hold

Eguy Rosario, San Diego Padres, 23 - 5’9, 204 lbs

‘22: 564 PA, .288/.368/.508/.876, 22 HR, 21 SB, 19.3% K, 10.5% BB (AAA)

I feel obligated to help others as others have helped me. It’s pronounced Eggy. He’s a stocky utility infielder who was likely to find himself battling for a spot on the big league roster before suffering a broken ankle. He’s slated to return some time mid-season and be in the mix for MLB playing time.

He profiles as a fringe-average bat, both in terms of hit and power, in spite of the near .290 average and 20+ home runs last year. He’s worth taking a swing on if you’re in need of some plate appearances due to the proximity but I don’t have high ceiling expectations.

Recommendation: Hold