Positional Prospect Ranks For Points Leagues: Outfield Pt.2 (31-60)
Positional Prospect Ranks For Points Leagues: Outfield Pt.2 (31-60)
Zac Beck's Prospect Positional Rankings for Dynasty Points Leagues
If you missed Beck’s other positional rankings, check them out here:
Joey Wiemer, Milwaukee Brewers, 24 - 6’4, 220 lbs
‘22: 548 PA, .256/.336/.465/.801, 21 HR, 31 SB, 26.8% K, 10.0% BB (AA, AAA)
Wiemer is a big ol’ weirdo, from the stance, to the hair, to the statistical profile.
He has an unconventional set-up at the dish, holding his hands away from his body a la Matt Olson and contorting his lower half to generate torque. The Brewers have worked with him to implement a toe tap that replaces a big leg kick in an effort to turn down the noise in his loading mechanism. Still, his mechanics lead to a lot of variability, making Wiemer one of the streakier prospects here.
Wiemer’s month-by-month OPS in 2022: .892 in April, .961 in May, .687 in June, .442 in July, .871 in August, and .901 in September. Maybe he’s not a fan of the warm weather?
He hits the ball hard and is susceptible to swing and miss. He’ll likely always be an inconsistent contributor, but riding his highs could take you a long way.
Recommendation: Sell
Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox, 22 - 5’8, 152 lbs
‘22: 522 PA, .299/.342/.539/.880, 21 HR, 28 SB, 21.6% K, 5.0% BB (A+, AA)
Ceddanne Chipper Nicasio Marte Rafaela. I’m not just making things up, that’s his full legal name.
We’re not here for the defense, I know that, but Rafaela was the best defensive CF in MiLB this year (even if Pete Crow-Armstrong took home gold glove hardware). His build and defensive ability have led to Mookie Betts comparisons among Red Sox fans. I don’t have to tell you this – as knowledgeable and keen as you are – but CCNMR is not Mookie Betts.
Hidden behind an encouraging surface-level performance is a real problem with plate discipline. He chased at a rate greater than 40%, which is entirely untenable at the big league level. His power played up in hitter friendly environments too, so while he may debut this year and flash the leather, his stock is potentially as high as it’ll ever be offensively.
Recommendation: Sell
Luis Matos, San Francisco Giants, 21 - 5’11, 160 lbs
‘22: 415 PA, .215/.280/.356/.636, 12 HR, 11 SB, 15.9% K, 6.7% BB (Rk, A+)
Matos had a weird year. He suffered a quad injury early on and then struggled to find his footing at High-A Eugene.
He puts the ball in the air a lot (roughly 50% in 2022) and over half the time it’s to his pull side. He rarely strikes out – just 15.9% of the time this year – and makes a healthy amount of contact (82.4% contact rate). He’s young and has time to refine the approach. He had a tremendous debut in full season ball two years ago. I’m giving him a pass on an abbreviated campaign marred by injury.
Recommendation: Hold
James Outman, Los Angeles Dodgers, 25 - 6’3, 215 lbs
‘22: 559 PA, .294/.393/.586/.978, 31 HR, 13 SB, 27.2% K, 12.5% BB (AA, AAA)
Here’s a case of a hitter making a tangible swing change and it working out for the better. Outman reduced his leg kick and changed his hand position in an attempt to make more contact on the inner third in 2022, which propelled him to a near .300/.400/.500 line accompanied by 31 homers.
Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to cure all of his swing ailments. The .294 average won’t hold up at the bigs (almost no batters maintain their minor league efficiency upon promotion, but I’m forecasting more precipitous declines for Outman than average) and his platoon splits are questionable at best.
Recommendation: Hold
Samuel Zavala, San Diego Padres, 18 - 6’1, 175 lbs
‘22: 176 PA, .272/.366/.530/.896, 8 HR, 5 SB, 27.2% K, 13.1% BB (Rk, A)
The Padres have never been afraid of pushing their youngsters. They certainly weren’t shy about moving Zavala quickly – he started the year stateside and moved levels after just 10 games in the ACL.
As a hitter, Zavala demonstrates patience and plate discipline with flourishing power. He’s still very young and raw, but the Padres see him as someone who could advance quickly because of his understanding of the game and coachability. He’s one of my favorite low-level prospects to invest in.
A hamate injury ended his 2022 season early but he’ll be good to go for the start of competition this year.
Recommendation: Buy
Alec Burleson, St. Louis Cardinals, 24 - 6’2, 212 lbs
‘22: 470 PA, .331/.372/.532/.905, 20 HR, 4 SB, 14.3% K, 6.2% BB (AAA)
A tough start at the big league level threw some cold water on Burleson, who had been considered a bat-first prospect for the entirety of his minor league career. He’s been billed as a hit and power guy, which makes him an attractive, cheap option in points formats.
There aren’t a lot of openings for Burleson in the St. Louis outfield. It’s possible they deal him from a position of depth at some point and he becomes an average regular. It’s also possible he moves off of the position to something like first base, but his power doesn’t play quite as well there.
Recommendation: Hold
Everson Pereira, New York Yankees, 21 - 6’0, 191 lbs
‘22: 448 PA, .277/.350/.469/.819, 14 HR, 21 SB, 27.7% K, 9.6% BB (A+, AA)
There’s a surprisingly short track record for Pereira despite his original signing occurring in 2017, partially due to injury and partially because of the lost pandemic season. He made a lot of noise by slugging 20 home runs in 49 games to end the year in 2021 but lost some ground last year due to chase and whiff issues that may trouble him throughout his career.
Boy can he mash though. I would put a 60 on his raw power, perhaps even a 70, but there are questions as to whether the hit tool is good enough to capitalize on it.
Recommendation: Sell
Alexander Canario, Chicago Cubs, 22 - 6’1, 212 lbs
‘22: 534 PA, .252/.343/.556/.899, 37 HR, 23 SB, 27.5% K, 11.0% BB (A+, AA, AAA)
Canario hits bombs. Canario walks a lot. The canary in the coalmine is the whiff.
I really wanted to end the blurb there because I think it’s a really tidy way to sum up his profile, but I am so grateful for anybody reading at this point that I’ll pepper in a few extra notes. He struggles specifically with staying off pitches out of the zone, and the bigger issue is that it’s not limited to a specific pitch type. High velocity and breaking balls alike give him fits. His profile plays pretty poorly in points formats that penalize K’s (and batting average leagues for that matter).
That said, he will tally home runs with the best of them. It comes down to whether he’ll slug his way to fantasy viability and make the strikeout problems an afterthought. I don’t think he will.
Recommendation: Sell
Dylan Beavers, Baltimore Orioles, 21 - 6’4, 206 lbs
‘22: 105 PA, .322/.438/.460/.898, 0 HR, 6 SB, 17.1% K, 15.2% BB (Rk, A, A+)
Sometimes as an evaluator you do everything right. You’ve watched all the film, you’ve crunched all the numbers, and you land on one take that you think is brilliant. For me, that was the undeniable and uncanny resemblance between Dylan Beavers and Christian Yelich.
At the eleventh hour, you revisit your notes and brush up on the prevailing industry narratives. I rewatched the 2022 Draft broadcast. Beavers states pretty plainly that he models his game after Yelich. Bingo! I was right. And thousands of others already knew this because Beavers himself had told the world.
Beavers is a ceiling play. He’s an extremely athletic outfielder with a big frame. He has some K in the profile and the swing mechanics could use a little cleaning up. There’s potential for streakiness. Baltimore’s development team has been among the best in the league in recent years and I can’t wait to see what they do with a profile like his.
Recommendation: Buy
Anthony Gutierrez, Texas Rangers, 18 - 6’3, 180 lbs
‘22: 190 PA, .308/.358/.477/.835, 4 HR, 11 SB, 17.9% K, 5.8% BB (DSL, Rk)
Big Gute (maybe it’ll stick, I’m just experimenting) showed up to camp this spring reportedly larger, having added 15 lbs or so of muscle. At the time of signing he was long and wiry with obvious remaining projection. It’s encouraging to see that come to fruition so early.
The Rangers aggressively promoted Gutierrez to stateside ball in his first professional season, signaling how confident they are in his abilities. He struggled but didn’t cave, nor did he let his K-rate balloon, which was doubly encouraging.
Beyond the frame and track record, Gutierrez displayed a strong zone-contact rate (88%). There was a little chase and he has holes to cover in the zone, but he’s a really promising bet if you’re looking to take a swing on barely-legal prospects.
Recommendation: Buy
Yanquiel Fernandez, Colorado Rockies, 20 - 6’2, 198 lbs
‘22: 523 PA, .284/.340/.507/.848, 21 HR, 5 SB, 21.8% K, 7.5% BB (A)
I love when players only compete at one level for an entire year because it makes for very aesthetically pleasing Baseball Reference pages. Fernandez played his age 18 season in the DSL and tore it up to the tune of a .937 OPS and returned in 2022 at more age-appropriate A-ball for his age 19 season.
He has huge power and above-average contact skills that make him attractive in points formats. His approach could use some work – he’s rather swing-happy at the moment – but I’d rather that than issues with zone contact.
Recommendation: Hold
Will Brennan, Cleveland Guardians, 25 - 6’0, 200 lbs
‘22: 590 PA, .314/.371/.479/.850, 13 HR, 20 SB, 11.7% K, 8.5% BB (AA, AAA)
After going largely unnoticed for several years, Brennan broke out last year and had his most productive year to date by leading the minors in hits. Only Masataka Yoshida, Justin Dirden, and James Outman saved him from being the eldest outfielder in my top 60, so it’s fair to Brennan made his presence known later than the traditional prospect.
He’s a really solid hitter with above average bat to ball ability, but his platoon splits leave something to be desired. His .909 OPS against right-handed pitching last year is stellar, though, and could lead him to a strong-side platoon role in the future. He won’t be a detraction when he is on the field. He gets a solid bump in value in daily leagues.
Recommendation: Sell
Gabriel Martinez, Toronto Blue Jays, 21 - 6’0, 186 lbs
‘22: 389 PA, .293/.355/.477/.832, 14 HR, 4 SB, 16.5% K, 8.2% BB (Rk, A, A+)
Martinez made his professional debut in earnest in 2019. It wasn’t pretty. Much rosier was his 2021, when he broke out to the tune of .330/.442/.411 over 138 plate appearances and introduced himself to the prospect world.
2022 saw him move three levels and largely hold his own. An impressive hitter, Martinez makes plenty of contact and projects for average power as he progresses. He chases a little (who doesn’t, am I right?) but his ability to put the barrel on the baseball has limited the K-rate from ballooning.
A repeat of last year against better competition could send his stock up even further. Now is a good time to invest.
Recommendation: Buy
Mason Auer, Tampa Bay Rays, 22 - 6’1, 210 lbs
‘22: 529 PA, .290/.372/.487/.859, 15 HR, 48 SB, 20.8% K, 10.3% BB (A, A+)
Auer is a very athletic and unpolished product of the JUCO circuit. His raw power has been reported as double-plus, he has tremendous speed, and he has a rifle attached to his right shoulder where an arm normally would be.
He could be a big riser with a few improvements. He lost no steam at A+ where he spent half of the season, which was an encouraging sign, but he’ll have to prove that his raw skills will translate against better competition and/or that he’s managed to corral some of the underlying chase issues in the profile.
The Rays have worked with him to make some of those adjustments already. He started his professional career with a much more pronounced leg kick that was replaced with quieter lower half actions. The arrow is tentatively pointing up and investing while his price is low could prove prudent.
Recommendation: Buy
Benny Montgomery, Colorado Rockies, 20 - 6’4, 200 lbs
‘22: 286 PA, .310/.385/.494/.879, 6 HR, 9 SB, 26.9% K, 7.3% BB (Rk, A)
He’s a freak athlete. Double-plus speed and plus raw power are the headliners. It’s easy to see why Colorado gave him $5 million to sign.
The results have been there, too. If I were just scouting statlines he’d likely bump up several spots. The hangup is that none of it makes sense visually – his pre-pitch set up is busy, his hands are inconsistent, the leg kick is big, and the swing is violent. There’s a lot to clean up and I’m not certain the Rockies are the best equipped to reconfigure… everything. Some players are able to athlete their way out of bad mechanics, but more often than not it falls apart as they progress.
Recommendation: Hold
Esteury Ruiz, Oakland Athletics, 24 - 6’0, 169 lbs
‘22: 541 PA, .332/.447/.526/.974, 16 HR, 85 SB, 17.4% K, 11.6% BB (AA, AAA)
Ruiz is my favorite player on the A’s. That has more to do with the fact that Matt Arnold was able to swindle a deal returning William Contreras in exchange for Ruiz this offseason than it does with Ruiz himself.
Ruiz would rank a lot higher if we were taking his line from 2022 at face value. I’m baking in a lot of regression based on his debut (which is admittedly a small sample, but not a positive one) and his batted ball profile.
Recommendation: Sell
Tyler Gentry, Kansas City Royals, 24 - 6’2, 210 lbs
‘22: 483 PA, .326/.422/.542/.965, 21 HR, 10 SB, 21.7% K, 12.4% BB (A+, AA)
Before you point and laugh at Gentry’s age (which greatly offends all of us older than him), allow for some context. He was part of the 2020 draft class and lost a full year of developmental experience before making his debut in 2021. Last year he made a massive leap forward, even improving as he climbed levels, and he’s poised to begin 2023 at AAA.
There isn’t a whole lot stopping him from eventually becoming a regular at one of the corner outfield spots either. What really grabbed my eye was that Gentry managed to decrease his K% at every level and saw a 50 point jump in ISO once he arrived at AA. He’s a sneaky add in deep points formats.
Recommendation: Buy
Andy Pages, Los Angeles Dodgers, 22 - 6’1, 212 lbs
‘22: 571 PA, .236/.336/.468/.805, 26 HR, 6 SB, 24.5% K, 10.9% BB (AA)
Pages dropped considerably since my December iteration. I’ve learned a lot (better every day is the motto) and what I’ve learned about Pages has really cooled me on him.
He’s got tremendous pull-side power and a healthy dose of swing and miss. I don’t think he’ll ever make average contact because of his uppercut swing path that leaves him exposed to high heat, which happens to be all the rage these days. If the hit tool were even a half grade better he would be ranked much higher but it’s a real concern as is. He’s on the 40-man roster and we should see him in 2023.
Recommendation: Sell
Owen Caissie, Chicago Cubs, 20 - 6’4, 190 lbs
‘22: 433 PA, .254/.349/.402/.751, 11 HR, 11 SB, 28.6% K, 11.5% BB (A+)
Caissie made his way to Chicago from San Diego as part of the Yu Darvish trade wherein AJ Preller sent five prospects north.
I love Caissie’s ceiling. He’s extremely projectable, boasts impressive power numbers already, and makes enough contact to get by. He started 2022 pretty slowly but rebounded over the second half.
I’m keeping an eye on the K%. Anything over 27% starts to get a little iffy, and it’s not as though the pitching you see every day at A+ is dominant.
Recommendation: Hold
Cristhian Vaquero, Washington Nationals, 18 - 6’3, 180 lbs
‘22: 216 PA, .256/.379/.341/.719, 1 HR, 17 SB, 17.6% K, 15.3% BB (DSL)
The Nationals and I agreed on something last year – that Vaquero was the best international talent available in the 2022 signing period. They put their money where their proverbial mouth is by shelling out nearly $5 million to sign him.
His stint in the DSL was just OK. There’s opportunity for much more, particularly in the power department. His notoriety as an aggressive hitter in the Cuban junior leagues didn’t translate, which is a positive, and he’s yet another prospect who could see his stock soar with a strong start in stateside rookie ball.
Recommendation: Hold
Roman Anthony, Boston Red Sox, 18 - 6’3, 200 lbs
‘22: 83 PA, .306/.374/.361/.735, 0 HR, 1 SB, 9.6% K, 10.8% BB (Rk, A)
Just about every time you hear Roman Anthony’s name come up in discussion, you’re going to hear about the 450 foot tape measure job he launched in the High School All Star game in Denver. He’s a freak athlete that passes the eye test on film.
Among his Perfect Game peers, Anthony registered a 96th percentile max exit velo and a 99th percentile sprint speed. His lefty swing is visually pleasing. The 6’3, 200 lb frame at 18 years old leaves a lot of room for projection.
Recommendation: Hold
Yasser Mercedes, Minnesota Twins, 18 - 6’2, 175 lbs
‘22: 176 PA, .355/.421/.555/.975, 4 HR, 30 SB, 19.9% K, 10.2% BB (DSL)
Mercedes is fresh off a very, very impressive DSL stint that saw him finish in the top-5 in batting average and stolen bases and top-10 in slugging. His average exit velocities were well above average, too.
As with most young athletes attempting to become professional hitters Mercedes suffers from chase issues. It’s almost not notable because he makes more than enough contact to get by, but it’ll be interesting to see how the Twins mold him into a more polished product nonetheless. He’ll start 2023 stateside in the FCL.
Recommendation: Buy
Garrett Mitchell, Milwaukee Brewers, 24 - 6’3, 224 lbs
‘22: 289 PA, .287/.377/.426/.804, 5 HR, 17 SB, 25.6% K, 10.4% BB (Rk, AA, AAA)
Selected 20th overall in the truncated 2021 draft, Mitchell hasn’t had a lot of opportunity to get acclimated to professional ball. A series of nagging injuries have limited him to just 557 plate appearances over the last two years, but he ascended through the system and debuted in Milwaukee nonetheless.
I feel like I’ve written this a number of times about a number of players, but Mitchell is a phenomenal athlete who may never get to his best outcomes because of flaws in his swing and approach. He has always run K-rates in the danger zone. His short stint at the MLB level showed us how those problems can compound as he K’d north of 40% of the time over 68 plate appearances.
He might be a good buy for rotisserie formats where his speed will be redeeming. Points leagues are a different story – the K’s will likely never get to a place where he’s immensely valuable.
Recommendation: Sell
Brandon Mayea, New York Yankees, 17 - 5’11, 175 lbs
‘22: Did Not Play
Evaluating international prospects, many of which are just 16 or 17 years old, is an astoundingly difficult task. My investigation into Brandon “Brando” Mayea led me to his Instagram for sizzle reels and highlight tapes. That’s about the best footage you can unearth unless you’re a scout affiliated with a team evaluating these players in their home countries.
On top of that, almost all international signees feature ETAs in the distant future. We won’t see them in real competition until the DSL starts several months into the minor league season.
Mayea is my favorite of the 2023 international crop. He reportedly has the best bat-to-ball ability in the class and the potential for plus game power. His swing is quick, direct, and mechanically sound, at least from what we can glean from the scant video out there. He’ll get a bump in public perception for commanding a very high signing bonus (third among all intl. signees this cycle) and because he’s a New York Yankee.
Recommendation: Hold
Jordan Beck, Colorado Rockies, 21 - 6’3, 225 lbs
‘22: 109 PA, .296/.431/.477/.909, 3 HR, 0 SB, 18.3% K, 19.2% BB (Rk, A)
Beck’s profile is pretty easy to break down: there is power in spades and the hit tool is a genuine concern. It’s usually something that’s passable, and you’d think Coors might give him a reasonable bump, but the Rockies haven’t successfully developed a hitter in a substantial amount of time.
He could be a power-over-hit corner outfielder with a spectacular arm assuming he’s able to improve his pitch recognition and plate discipline, but he could also be the kind of player that never makes enough contact to unlock the power. His debut was an encouraging sign for the former outcome.
It’s important to note that there are some character concerns with Beck (the professional baseball player, not the prospect analyst or musician). He was caught using an illegal bat and had a few unsavory on field incidents.
Recommendation: Hold
Nolan Jones, Colorado Rockies, 24 - 6’4, 195 lbs
‘22: 248 PA, .276/.368/.463/.831, 9 HR, 14 SB, 25.8% K, 12.5% BB (AAA)
It’s been a bit of a winding road for Jones, who was traded to the Rockies in November in exchange for Juan Brito ahead of the 40-man deadline. He was originally signed in 2016 after being selected in the 2nd round as a prep prospect and had been considered the top prospect in the Guardians system for a short while.
He struggled in his initial stint at AAA, logging a .787 OPS and a 30% K-rate. Last year he corrected some of the strikeout problems but still hit the ball on the ground far too often to capitalize on his plus raw power. He’s an OK flier to take but I wouldn’t expect much unless he retools his swing to put the ball in the air more often. Playing half of his games in Coors could ostensibly give his overall output a bump.
Recommendation: Sell
Justin Dirden, Houston Astros, 25 - 6’3, 209 lbs
‘22: 549 PA, .302/.384/.558/.942, 24 HR, 12 SB, 24.4% K, 9.3% BB (AA, AAA)
Dirden is one of the few prospects that begin their career as undrafted free agents and rise to fantasy relevance. He’s done so by hitting the baseball hard and in the air a lot (50.8% FB% at A+ in 2021, 42.6% at AA in 2022).
As he progressed to AAA his K-rate spiked to 28.2% and his FB% diminished substantially, both signaling that he’ll need a little more seasoning before contributing at the big league level. When he does, it’s reasonable to think he could be an average regular.
Recommendation: Hold
Jose Ramos, Los Angeles Dodgers, 22 - 6’1, 200 lbs
‘22: 545 PA, .249/.339/.479/.818, 25 HR, 4 SB, 31.0% K, 10.5% BB (A)
Ramos certainly looks the part of a ballplayer. He had a huge 2021 campaign after competing in the DSL the year prior, planting him firmly in the fantasy prospect discourse.
2022 brought with it some challenges. As he advanced so did the pitching, primarily the quality of breaking stuff. It ate him up as he was unable to identify or contact secondaries of any type with regularity.
Recommendation: Sell
Jonatan Clase, Seattle Mariners, 20 - 5’8, 150 lbs
‘22: 499 PA, .267/.374/.463/.837, 13 HR, 55 SB, 26.7% K, 13.0% BB (A)
Clase is a true top of the scale runner. He’s certainly more appealing in rotisserie than points, but it’s not hollow speed by any means. In addition to his quickness there’s plenty of thump.
On the other hand, he’s very much a free swinger. He struggles to identify and contact breaking pitches. Swinging outside of the zone is a regular occurrence and it makes him a solidly below average hitter.
Recommendation: Sell
Pedro Leon, Houston Astros, 24 - 5’10, 170 lbs
‘22: 504 PA, .228/.365/.431/.796, 17 HR, 38 SB, 28.8% K, 14.1% BB (AAA)
It’s really hard to be a productive hitter when you’re striking out 29% of the time. Leon logged over 500 plate appearances in the PCL, one of the most hitter-friendly environments at any level of professional baseball, and failed to produce a batting average north of .230. I’ve never been a huge Leon fan and came away from seeing him in the AFL in 2021 shrugging my shoulders. It’s not a great profile for points formats, but he’s a tremendous athlete and could be interesting if he finds a way to put it together.
Recommendation: Sell
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