Philadelphia Phillies Top Prospects 2024
Philadelphia Phillies top prospects from Chris Clegg, including Andrew Painter, Mick Abel, Aidan Miller, Justin Crawford, and Gabriel Rincones Jr.
Welcome to our team prospect rankings. Over the next two months, I will be pumping out team top 30 prospect rankings and evaluations for dynasty baseball. These reports are generated from live looks, film study, and advanced data analysis to bring you in-depth fantasy scouting reports on every player you need to know, with today’s being the Philadelphia Phillies Top Prospects.
Not all 30 players in each writeup will be dynasty relevant, but many will, and if you play in a deep league, certainly most of the names will be worth knowing.
You can check out our previous Top-30s:
The Phillies farm system is not what it once was, but there are some fun, high-upside players at the top of the system.
Each player has a detailed write-up on each. The top 10 rankings and writeups are free for all, but the rest of the top prospects are for paid subs. Get an edge in your dynasty leagues and get in on some of these players first!
FFG = Future Fantasy Grade - essentially, what is the likely long-term outcome for the prospect? This is always going to be more conservative. Handing out ace tags is not something I like to do. So this is a realistic outcome.
90th Peak = If the player hits their best-case outcome, what does it look like?
Variance = How risky is this player’s profile, and how likely are they to hit their likely outcome? Low variance is good; high means more risky.
Philadelphia Phillies Top Prospects
1. Andrew Painter, RHP, 20, 6’7”/215
Painter sadly did not throw a pitch in game in 2023 due to a UCL injury that ultimately resulted in Tommy John Surgery after ascending to the game’s top prospect pitching in 2022. After being selected in the first round of the 2022 MLB Draft, Painter tossed 103.2 innings in 2022, moving from Single-A to Double-A while posting a 1.56 ERA with 155 strikeouts and 25 walks.
Unfortunately, Painter was diagnosed with a sprained UCL in April, and while the team decided to go with the rest and recovery route, Painter ended up needing Tommy John, which puts him out until the 2025 season.
Painter’s fastball averaged near 97 mph in 2022, reaching 101 with insane IVB(induced vertical break), creating a rising effect at the top of the zone, especially given the high spin rates. It produced a ton of swing-and-miss and set up the rest of the arsenal well.
The slider drops in the mid-to-low 80s, averaging 10-13 inches of sweeping action with a great feel for spin. Painter hides it well and creates deception with late breaks, keeping hitters on their toes.
Painter also mixes in a changeup, which made major strides in 2022, sitting in the high 80s. The curve is the lesser of the two breakers, but you can still argue it is a plus pitch in the upper 70s. Painter showed off a new cutter in Spring Training 2023 before injury that was sitting right at 90 mph.
If the five pitches all stick, it would give him five separate velocity bands and four different movement patterns to keep hitters guessing. What Painter looks like post-Tommy John is still to be determined, but given that he will only be 21 when he returns, Painter has plenty of potential to become an ace.
FFG: SP1-2 Caliber Arm
90th Percentile Peak Outcome: 180 IP/2.80 ERA/250 K
2. Mick Abel, RHP, 22, 6’5”/195
Abel has as much upside as nearly any arm in the Minors but, unfortunately, has been held back by command at times. The pure stuff is legit, as Abel leads with a fastball that sits near 97 mph and has been up to 100 mph with high-IVB at the top of the zone.
The slider is Abel’s most used secondary pitch, sitting in the mid-to-upper 80s at times with late bite, generating a ton of sweeping action, getting hitters to chase out of the zone.
Abel’s changeup has made major strides as well over the last two seasons, giving him a viable pitch to play off the fastball, as he sells it well and has similar arm speed. The pitch sits around 90 mph and averaged 15 inches of fade, creating a huge separation between it and the slider.
The arsenal rounds out with a curveball in the low-80s but is not used as often.
The command is the biggest thing holding Abel back from developing into a high-end starter. Abel threw strikes at a 61.5 percent clip, which needs to tick up a hair as he walked nearly 14 percent of hitters in 2023. The good news is Abel lives in the zone around a 50 percent clip and grades out around average command the first time through lineups and a slight tick down the second and third times through. The upside is immense here, and Abel could debut pretty early in 2023.
FFG: SP3 Caliber Arm
90th Percentile Peak Outcome: 150 IP/3.30 ERA/190 K
3. Aidan Miller, 3B, 19, 6’0”/170
Miller is one of the more decorated hitters in the 2023 draft class with a highly athletic, powerful frame. He possesses significant power, a fast bat, and solid contact skills. He has a strong arm and can stick at the hot corner for the long run, but his bat will play great there for fantasy purposes.
Miller has an easy plus or better power, and the contact/plate discipline skills are above average. You likely aren’t getting much speed or stolen bases in this profile, but there’s enough power and contact to carry in fantasy. The profile reminds me of Brady House, with a better feel to hit.
Miller did not post gaudy numbers by any means in his pro debut, but the underlying data was still strong. Between the Complex and Single-A, Miller slashed .303/.425/.379 with zero home runs and four extra-base hits. But, he posted a nearly 10 percent barrel rate, and a 90th percentile exit velocity of 105 mph in a small sample, but that is still well north of MLB average.
Miller showed a good propensity to not chase pitches out of the zone and made a ton of contact, posting a 91 percent zone-contact rate and an 87 percent overall contact rate.
The Phillies were gifted a great bat at 27 overall in the draft, and I think he fits in the system nicely as one of their best-hitting prospects.
FFG: Top-10 Third Baseman
90th Percentile Peak Outcome: .280/.360 OBP/25+ HR/5 SB
4. Justin Crawford, OF, 19, 6’3”/175
You might recognize the Crawford name, and that is because Justin is the son of Carl Crawford. The Phillies took him in the first round of the 2022 draft, not because of the bloodlines but rather a strong performance in his prep days, showing elite athleticism. Crawford posts elite run times, consistently 70 or 80 grade, and it translates on the base paths and in the field, as Crawford stole 47 bases and played a strong centerfield.
Crawford is an aggressive hitter, swinging at 53 percent of pitches and 74 percent of pitches in-zone, but he makes enough contact to make it work. Despite chasing 37 percent of pitches out of the zone, Crawford still made contact at a 78 percent clip, with an impressive 88 percent zone-contact rate.
The issues are not related to contact skills, but rather the quality of contact. Crawford hits a lot of balls to the opposite field and puts it on the ground at a 70 percent rate, leading to a launch angle of -9 degrees.
There is some power in the profile and room to add to his slender frame, but Crawford’s 90th percentile exit velocity was already north of the MLB average at 103.6, which does give some excitement if he can pull the ball and lift it more.
At the end of the day, Crawford has a ton to dream about and could end up being a five-tool player if all clicks.
FFG: 5-Tool Outfield
90th Percentile Peak Outcome: .260/.340 OBP/15+ HR/50 SB
5. Gabriel Rincones Jr., OF, 22
My eyes were opened to Rincones Jr. in the Arizona Fall League, but it has been clear he has been a player I have underrated for a while. He is an outstanding athlete whose 2023 season flew under the radar, posting a 248/.351/.427 slash with 15 home runs and 32 stolen bases, adding 31 doubles and three triples for 49 extra-base hits. He did much of the same in the AFL, showing good contact skills, power, and speed.
During the regular season, Rincones showed a good feel for the strike zone, chasing below 25 percent of pitches while making contact on 73 percent of pitches overall. Rincones’ in-zone contact rate was north of 82 percent of the time.
The power seems to have been a bit underrated, as Rincones posted an average exit velocity close to 90 mph with a 90th percentile exit velocity north of 107 mph. He hits the ball at ideal launch angles and is a strong athlete, leading to the potential for high BABIPs. Rincones just might be in for a big breakout in 2024, and I would look to buy now in dynasty before his stock soars.
FFG: Power/Speed Threat Outfielder
90th Percentile Peak Outcome: .260/.330 OBP/15+ HR/30 SB
6. Orion Kerkering, RHP, 22
What an ascension for Kerkering this season after being selected in the fifth round of the 2022 draft and pitching at five levels in 2023, pitching in key spots in the Phillies bullpen down the stretch and in the playoffs.
The right-handed reliever posted a 1.51 ERA across 49 appearances with 79 strikeouts and 12 walks. He did not allow a run upon his time in the majors.
Kerkering dominates hitters with a sweeper that sits 86-87 mph with 12-13 inches of horizontal movement. He pairs it with a sinker that averages 15.5 inches of IVB and 13 inches of horizontal run.
Kerkering seems to be here to stay and could eventually earn the Phillies’ closer role. But if not he’s still going to be a holds monster with excellent ratios and strikeouts.
FFG: Back-End Bullpen Arm
90th Percentile Peak Outcome: 60 IP/3.00 ERA/90 K/30 SV
7. Griff McGarry, RHP, 24, 6’2”/190
From a pure stuff standpoint, McGarry checks all the boxes, armed with a 70-grade fastball that sits 95 consistently and reaches 99 with a big-time ride at the top of the zone. He mixes in a cutter that sits in the upper 80s and generates a ton of swing and misses, which is deceptive considering his slider is a plus pitch with 10 inches of sweeping action and sits in the low 80s. You could even argue that McGarry has a plus changeup, considering its 15 inches of fade and 13 inches of IVB separation from the four-seam fastball.
The stuff led to a 30 percent strikeout rate across Double-A and Triple-A, but the larger issue remains as McGarry posted an 18.5 percent walk rate. McGarry threw strikes at a 56 percent clip, which is highly concerning and reliever esq. At the end of the day, McGarry likely fits in the back of a bullpen much better than as a starter, but the stuff is closer esq. The toughest thing for me is that McGarry has a legit four-pitch that could lead to being a high-end starter if the command can tick up.
FFG: SP3 Caliber Arm/High-Leverage Bullpen Arm
90th Percentile Peak Outcome: 150 IP/3.60 ERA/180 K
8. Simon Muzziotti, OF, 24, 6’0”/175
Muzziotti is one of the most underrated prospects in the Phillies system, putting together an excellent season in Triple-A while having the underlying data supporting the performance. Across 124 games, he slashed .296/.358/.404 with seven home runs and 26 stolen bases.
The contact skills are highly impressive, as Muzziotti posted a 91 percent zone-contact rate and an 84 percent overall contact. Those put him firmly in the plus hit tool range, but the concerns come from an aggressive approach, shown by a 50 percent overall swing rate and a 38 percent chase rate. The chase rate can be countered by the fact the strong zone-contact rate.
While posting just seven home runs, you might be tempted to label him with a low-level power grade. While it is below average, the exit velocities are respectable as he posted a 103 mph 90th percentile exit velocity, which is close to MLB average, and an 87 mph average exit velocity. Playing time may be hard for Muzziotti in Philadelphia, but he can hit.
FFG: High-Contact Outfielder
90th Percentile Peak Outcome: .280/.350 OBP/15 HR/20 SB
9. TayShaun Walton, OF, 18, 6’3”/225
Walton is an athlete with a great frame at 6’3”/220 and has tools across the board. The outfielder shows good speed and impressive power. If his contact skills develop, this ranking might look very silly for Walton. As a prep, Walton posted exit velocities as high as 105 mph as a sophomore with some elite bat speed numbers. From a speed standpoint, he clocked a 60 time of 6.7 seconds, which is a plus for an athlete his size with the impressive upper half that he has. He looks like a big-time wide receiver in the NFL and has the athletic ability to do so. I usually like to bet on athletes and like what Walton brings to the table.
FFG: Athletic Starting OF
90th Percentile Peak Outcome: .260/.330 OBP/20 HR/20 SB
10. Raylin Heredia, OF, 19, 6’0”/175
Heredia is a player you would describe as an athlete; standing at 6’0”/175, he has good instincts and a chance to develop into at least having average tools across the board. From a power and speed, Heredia has shown at least average, if not above-average, potential. The contact skills remain questioned as Heredia made contact at just a 65 percent clip in 2023 despite posting a good batting average and a .314/.392/.493 slash across the Florida Complex League and Single-A. 2024 will be a huge year for Heredia and his future outlook as a player.
FFG: Power/Speed Threat With Hit-Tool Questions
90th Percentile Peak Outcome: .260/.330 OBP/15 HR/20 SB
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