Philadelphia Phillies Prospects to Know
Prospects to Know from the Philadelphia Phillies system for 2025.
You are reading the free version of the Philadelphia Phillies Top Prospects. In this version, you will get the full writeups on the top prospect in the system, the biggest sleeper, and a player I could see breaking out in 2025.
In this edition, you will see what I offer in the full team reports. For every farm system, you will get my top 50 ranked players and detailed reports on the top 30. Each report includes advanced player data, traditional scouting thoughts from live and video looks, plus thoughts from scouts around the league.
Let’s dive in on what you get in the full report!
Glossary:
FFG = Future Fantasy Grade - essentially, what is the likely long-term outcome for the prospect? This is always going to be more conservative. Handing out ace tags is not something I like to do. So, this is a realistic outcome.
90th Peak = If the player hits their best-case outcome, what does it look like?
Variance = How risky is this player’s profile, and how likely are they to hit their likely outcome? Low variance is good; high means more risky.
Format for report: Name/Position/Age on 2025 Opening Day/Height/Weight/Highest Level
Philadelphia Phillies Top Prospects To Know
Top Overall Prospect
1. Andrew Painter, RHP, 21, 6’7”/215, AA
After going down with an injury in Spring Training of 2023, Painter went the rest and recovery route. Unfortunately, that ended in him having Tommy John Surgery on July 25, 2023.
After being selected in the first round of the 2021 MLB Draft, Painter tossed 103.2 innings in 2022, moving from Single-A to Double-A while posting a 1.56 ERA with 155 strikeouts and 25 walks. He looked like the best pitching prospect in baseball, and it was not close. Painter was on the verge of making his MLB debut out of Spring Training in 2023 and would have been 19 when he debuted.
Pre-TJ Fastball
Painter’s fastball averaged nearly 97 mph in 2022, reaching 101 with incredible IVB (induced vertical break), creating a rising effect at the top of the zone, especially given the high spin rates. It produced a ton of swing-and-miss and set up the rest of the arsenal well.
Arizona Fall League Fastball
So far in the Arizona Fall League, he has sat at 97 mph and touched 100 mph. The velocity is fully back, and Painter saw his fastball have up to 19 inches of IVB on Friday but averaged closer to 16.2 inches with around five inches of horizontal movement. The VAA of -5.5 is pretty solid, given his 6’4” release height. The fastball location has improved in each of his starts, with the start on Thursday easily being his best.
The velocity being back from his first start is highly important. The command will only get better with the pitch, but it already looks like the plus offering that it was pre-surgery.
Pre-TJ Slider
The slider drops in the mid-to-low 80s, averaging 10-13 inches of sweeping action with a great feel for spin. Painter hides it well and creates deception by using a late-breaking action. It has a good feel for late depth, and the horizontal movement also comes late.
Arizona Fall League Slider
Painter threw seven sliders on Thursday which was the same number he threw in his previous start. The pitch has sat around 88 mph in each of the last two outings and has touched 90 mph. While averaging 7.5 inches of horizontal, it has registered as high as 10 inches and has also shown good depth. Locations were much better in his most recent start, burying it down and away from righties. This pitch is more of the cutter/slider he debuted in Spring Training of 2023 versus the longer horizontal one that he previously threw.
Pre-TJ Changeup and Curveball
Painter also mixes in a changeup, which made major strides in 2022, sitting in the high-80s. The curve is the lesser of the two breakers, but you can still argue it is a plus pitch in the upper-70s. It has a two-plane break but less depth than the typical curveball.
Arizona Fall League Changeup and Curve
The curveball has remained strong, sitting between 80-81 mph. It has shown depth and sweeping action, averaging negative three inches of IVB and nine inches of sweeping action. It has registered as low as negative six inches of IVB with up to 13 inches of sweep.
Painter has thrown one changeup, but not in his most recent start. It was a firm 91 mph pitch with carry and 16 inches of fading action.
Andrew Painter Performance and 2025 Outlook
Painter is up to seven innings of work in the AFL and is slated to reach a 20-innings limit. He has allowed three earned runs and struck out seven batters but has gotten better each start. I will see him live next Wednesday and report back with more details.
As far as 2025 goes, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski doesn't have a timeline on when Painter will be on the major league roster in 2025. He said:
"He's going to be a starting pitcher. I don't think there's any question about that," Dombrowski said Tuesday. "Now he has to earn a starting position with the big league club whenever it gets to that point. He is a very, very talented individual. It's apparent he's healthy, and he'll get a limited number of innings in the Arizona Fall League and then be in a position (where) we're gonna have to make a determination on how we're going to use his innings next year. He's not going to be a guy we can count on to throw 180 innings at the major league level."
Painter could be on the Opening Day roster, and I would not be shocked. It would also not surprise me if he starts in Triple-A and gets a month there before his debut. One thing is certain- the Phillies are a team with playoff aspirations that will want Andrew Painter healthy in the postseason.
120 innings feels like a real possibility for Painter in 2025. Let’s break that up over a full season's workload of 30 starts, and you have around four innings per outing. Given that we have seen Painter threw three innings in the Fall League already, so you would expect out of the gate in 2025..Maybe it's a 75-pitch limit? Regardless, I think you get results for Painter. The strides he has made in three AFL starts have been impressive, and with an entire offseason and Spring Training of prep, I think we will see him get back to the Painter we saw in 2022, one of the best pitchers in baseball.
FFG: SP2 Caliber Arm w/True Ace Upside
90th Percentile Peak Outcome: 180 IP/2.80 ERA/250 K
Variance: High
Buy/Sell: Buy
Phillies Sleeper Prospect
8. Eiberson Castellano, RHP, 23, 6’3”/160, AA
Castellano was arguably the most significant breakout in the Phillies system and continued to improve all year. After a strong stint in High-A, Castellano has been even better in Double-A. The 14.5 percent swinging strike rate gradually increased all season, as did his strike-throwing.
Castellano’s fastball velocity has ticked up throughout the season and is now topping at 97 while sitting in the mid-90s with heavy extension. The changeup sits in the mid-80s with heavy fading action, averaging over a foot.
Mix in a devastating breaking ball with nice depth and some sweep, and you will have three pitches that can miss bats. The slider is more of a slurve, sitting in the low-80s. He throws mostly a fastball-breaking ball, but both are pretty good.
After a 4.12 ERA in High-A in which he had a 3.04 xFIP, Castellano posted a 3.79 ERA in Double-A with a strong 3.08 xFIP. The stuff is good, and he has progressively gotten better all year. The hype is building if you want him on your roster, it might be time to grab him now.
FFG: SP4-5
90th Percentile Peak Outcome: 140 IP/3.75 ERA/155 K
Variance: Very High
Buy/Sell: Buy
Philadelphia Phillies 2025 Breakout Prospect
5. Griffin Burkholder, OF, 19, 6’2”/195, A
Burkholder was drafted in the second round, 63rd overall, by the Phillies in the 2024 draft. He received a $2.5 million bonus, nearly double the slot value, and the same bonus that the Phillies handed out to first-rounder Dante Nori. Burkholder made his pro debut, but it was just one game in which he smoked a 101 mph triple and showed off his 70-grade wheels.
At the Super 60 Pro Showcase, Burkholder clocked exit velocities at the top of his class and hit the ball at ideal angles, having an 84 percent air percentage. The hand and bat speed both ranked among the top of all prep hitters.
On top of the power potential, Burkholder grades exceptionally well as an athlete, having one of the top vertical jumps and sprint speeds in the class. On the 60-yard dash, Burkholder posted an insane 6.29 seconds, an elite mark. In the 30-yard, home to the first equivalent, Burkholder posted a 3.54-second mark.
The frame is strong, but there is still a little projection left. There is a real chance Burkholder could have plus power and 70-grade speed when all is said and done.
FFG: Power/Speed Upside OF
90th Percentile Peak Outcome: .280/.350 OBP/20 HR/20 SB
Variance: High
Buy/Sell: Buy