Philadelphia Phillies Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts
Discover sleepers and breakouts from the Philadelphia Phillies for dynasty fantasy baseball both on the MLB and prospect side.
With dynasty season ramping up, it is time to talk about some sleepers, breakouts, and busts for each team. You can find our rankings and reports to see how we at the Dynasty Dugout value players for your dynasty leagues, but I also feel like it’s helpful to truly identify whether I believe a player can be a breakout or not. Here is where we call our shots on players, I think, require a call to action in dynasty, whether it be to buy or sell that player.
Philadelphia Phillies Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, Busts
MLB Sleeper: Brandon Marsh, OF
Marsh is far from a sexy player, but he consistently gets the job done. He made strides in 2023, slashing .277/.372/.458 with 12 home runs and 10 stolen bases. Nothing exceptional by any means, but Marsh is a high floor hitter who hits the ball hard and gets on base.
Checking in with a hard-hit rate north of 49 percent last season, Marsh was 90th percentile among all hitters in MLB. Marsh also hits the ball at ideal launch angles, having an 88th percentile sweet-spot percentage.
Marsh has historically run higher BABIPs, naturally because of his line drive approach and the speed his brings to the table. Considering he just turned 26, Marsh’s best days could still be ahead of him, making him a great dynasty buy.
MLB Breakout: Cristopher Sanchez, LHP
Sanchez broke out in a sense in 2023, posting a 3.44 ERA across 99.1 innings, but many questioned the legitimacy of the performance. The 26 year old seemingly came out of nowhere as a long time MiLB journeyman and posted a very strong season.
Leading the way with a sinker, Sanchez is not going to miss a ton of bats with his fastball, he does limit hard contact. His changeup was one of the better changeups in baseball as he induced a ton of weak contact but also missed bats. The slider is fine, but his command of all three pitches allows them to play up.
I don’t think Sanchez is magically going to turn into a top-30 pitcher, but I do believe he can take a small step forward from his 2023 season and provide good value while being completely overlooked in dynasty. I would buy in due to the low risk.
MLB Bust: Taijuan Walker, RHP
Picking a bust from this group of players is a challenging task as the lineup is stacked top-to-bottom and the rotation is pretty solid. Walker is the pick because of the regression we saw in 2023 as he posted a 4.38 ERA across 172.2 innings pitched. All ERA indicators were actually higher than the actual ERA.
Walker saw his command take a step back as his walk rate jumped over three percentage points to 9.7 percent. The splitter being his most used pitch was a positive as it was a solid pitch but it did show inconsistencies. The four-seam was not good at all, but Walker also cut its usage which was good.
Given the contract situation, it is safe to assume that Walker with get regular run in the rotation, but I am not sure the quality of innings you will get is worth investing in for fantasy purposes.
Prospect Sleeper: Gabriel Rincones Jr., OF
My eyes were opened to Rincones Jr. in the Arizona Fall League, but it has been clear he has been a player I have underrated for a while. He is an outstanding athlete whose 2023 season flew under the radar, posting a 248/.351/.427 slash with 15 home runs and 32 stolen bases, adding 31 doubles and three triples for 49 extra-base hits. He did much of the same in the AFL, showing good contact skills, power, and speed.
During the regular season, Rincones showed a good feel for the strike zone, chasing below 25 percent of pitches while making contact on 73 percent of pitches overall. Rincones’ in-zone contact rate was north of 82 percent of the time.
The power seems to have been a bit underrated, as Rincones posted an average exit velocity close to 90 mph with a 90th percentile exit velocity north of 107 mph. He hits the ball at ideal launch angles and is a strong athlete, leading to the potential for high BABIPs. Rincones just might be in for a big breakout in 2024, and I would look to buy now in dynasty before his stock soars.
Prospect Breakout: Bryan Rincon, SS
Rincon honestly flew completely under my radar until my offseason evaluations. The 19 year old was a 14th rounder in the 2022 draft and proceeded to slash .234/.368/.361 with eight home runs across 99 games in 2023. The numbers were not flashy at all, but Rincon did steal 27 bases.
The good news is the underlying data looks much better than the performance. A selective switch-hitter swung at just 38 percent of pitches last season but made contact 81 percent of the time while having a zone-contact rate north of 87 percent. He chased less than 19 percent of the time which shows rather impressive plate discipline skills.
The power is still firmly below average, but Rincon did make decent strides and saw his max exit velocity jump to 108 mph and his hard-hit rate jump to 26 percent.
Rincon is a high floor hitter thanks to his plate discipline. If the power takes another step forward in 2024, watch out, he could be a massive breakout.
Be sure to check out our Phillies Top Prospects list