New York Mets Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts
Discover a sleeper, breakout, and bust from the New York Mets for dynasty fantasy baseball both on the MLB and prospect side.
With dynasty season ramping up, it is time to talk about some sleepers, breakouts, and busts for each team. You can find our rankings and reports to see how we at the Dynasty Dugout value players for your dynasty leagues, but I also feel like it’s helpful to truly identify whether I believe a player can be a breakout or not. Here is where we call our shots on players, I think, require a call to action in dynasty, whether it be to buy or sell that player.
New York Mets Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, Busts
MLB Sleeper: Sean Manaea, LHP
Wait? Sean Manaea, being a sleeper? On the surface, it really does not look like Manaea had a good season in 2023, but through his first 11 appearances, he had a 6.61 ERA. After adding the sweeper, he finished with a 3.60 ERA through his final 85 innings.
While spending most of the season as a reliever, Manaea began starting in September and, over his final four starts, pitched 24 innings, allowing just six earned runs.
Manaea’s sweeper was his best pitch, having a 36 percent whiff rate and averaging nearly 12 inches of sweeping action. The pitch registered a 104 stuff+, which is the highest of any of his pitches.
Getting a $14 million deal with the Mets signifies he will be in the rotation, making Manaea an interesting arm to buy in dynasty.
MLB Breakout: Brett Baty, 3B
Baty is the classic case of prospect fatigue on a player who comes up and does not perform right away. After a short cup of coffee in 2022, Baty played 108 games in 2023, slashing just .212/.275/.323 with nine home runs across 389 plate appearances. In Triple-A, however, Baty smacked ten home runs in just 121 plate appearances while having an OPS of 1.013.
While the MLB surface numbers don’t look great, there are some things under the hood that excite. A 44.3 percent hard-hit rate does not wow, but it was 67th percentile among all MLB hitters, and his average exit velocity of 89.5 was above MLB average.
Those numbers in Triple-A were stellar, as Baty had an average exit velocity of 96 mph and a 90th percentile of 107.6 mph. There is no denying the power, but can Baty hit enough and lift it enough to make the profile work? I believe that with regular playing time this year, Baty could have a very solid year, which is why he is a great dynasty buy-low for me.
MLB Bust: Luis Severino, RHP
I want to buy back into Luis Severino, I really do. Injuries have plagued the late portion of his career, as he threw just 18 total innings between 2019 and 2021. He did manage 102 innings in 2022 and 89 in 2023, but the 2023 innings were far from good as he posted a 6.65 ERA, with all ERA indicators being in the 5-6 range.
Severino received a one-year, $13 million deal with the Mets, where he should have every opportunity to pitch every day as long as he is healthy. There is hope that he can rebound, but I am not overly confident that Severino can be healthy enough to make an impact.
Even if healthy, Severino’s pitches got obliterated last year, allowing a ton of hard contact and failing to miss bats. He relied on a ton of called strikes from his slider, but his swinging strike percentage with that pitch was just in the 18th percentile among all MLB pitchers.
With the durability issues plus concerns surrounding his arsenal, it makes it tough for me to buy back into Luis Severino, especially in a dynasty league.
Prospect Sleeper: Dominic Hamel, RHP
Hamel tossed 124 innings in Double-A this season, posting a 3.85 ERA with 160 strikeouts and 49 walks. Among pitchers that threw 100 innings in 2023, only five had a strikeout rate north of 30 percent and walk rate south of 10 percent, and Hamel was one of them and the only one to spend the entire season at Double-A or higher.
Hamel's fastball ranges from 93-97 with a near-elite 20 inches of IVB, giving the pitch nice life at the top of the zone. He mixes a slider and a cutter, with the slider sitting in the mid-80s and the cutter getting into the upper-80s. The curveball is more of a 12-6 shape with good downward movement. Over his final nine starts, Hamel tossed 48 innings with a 1.88 ERA and a .189 batting average against while striking out 32.4 percent of hitters. If his strong finish to 2023 carries over to 2024, we can expect to see Hamel in a Mets’ uniform sooner than later.
Prospect Breakout: Joander Suarez, RHP
Suarez was one of the biggest breakouts in the Mets system in 2023, and while the overall line of a 5.08 ERA in High-A is far from impressive if you look at the improvements throughout the season, you will come away impressed. Through 13 starts and 47 innings, Suarez owned a 7.23 ERA and had allowed 35 walks with a .368 BABIP. But from July 8 onward, which included three Double-A starts to end the season, Suarez posted a 1.92 ERA across 61 innings with 79 strikeouts and just 14 walks.
Suarez leads the way with his fastball that sits between 94-96 mph with decent shape, showing some armside run at times. He is comfortable throwing a sweeper in the mid-80s with a lot of horizontal movement. The curve is a distinct pitch from the slider, showing nice downward movement and sitting in the upper 70s. If Suarez’s change can continue to develop and at least be an average, it would give him four pitches in different velocity bands as it sits in the upper 80s.
The question is, which Suarez do we see in 2024? The one who posted a 7.23 ERA and a 15.4 percent walk rate in the first half or the one who posted a 1.92 ERA and a 33.6 percent strikeout rate to a six percent walk rate in the second half.
Be sure to check out our Mets Top Prospects list