Miami Marlins Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts
Discover a sleeper, breakout, and bust from the Miami Marlins for dynasty fantasy baseball both on the MLB and prospect side.
With dynasty season ramping up, I figured it was time to talk about some sleepers, breakouts, and busts for each team. You can find our rankings and reports to see how we at the Dynasty Dugout value players for your dynasty leagues, but I also feel like it’s helpful to truly identify whether I believe a player can be a breakout or not. Here is where I call my shots on players I think require a call to action in dynasty, whether it be to buy or sell that player.
Miami Marlins Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, Busts
MLB Sleeper: Jake Burger, 3B
I’m not sure if Burger is still a sleeper, but if anyone on this team fits the mold, I would argue it’s him. Coming off an age-27 season where he finally got consistent playing time, Burger mashed 34 home runs and slashed .250/.309/.518.
Beginning the year in Chicago with the White Sox, Burger moved to Miami at the trade deadline and ended the year on fire, hitting .303/.355/.505 over his 217 Miami plate appearances with nine home runs.
Burger hits the ball extremely hard, shown by his 92 mph average exit velocity, which is 89th percentile among all hitters, and a 16.7 percent barrel rate that ranked 98th percentile.
While there is swing and miss, Burger saw his zone-contact rate jump by five percentage points after the trade to Miami and the overall contact jump by four percentage points. While it came with a high chase rate, Burger does major damage when he makes contact.
MLB Breakout: Xavier Edwards, 2B
While Xavier Edwards technically graduated from prospect status due to service time, he has only received 78 MLB at-bats to this point. After being selected 38th overall by the Padres in 2018, Edwards was traded to Tampa Bay and is now with the Marlins.
You can argue that Edwards had by far his best season as a professional in 2023 when he posted a .351/.429/.457 with seven home runs and 32 stolen bases in 433 Triple-A plate appearances. You can tell that Edwards is an elite contact hitter, considering he struck out 6.9 percent of the time in Triple-A while walking 12 percent. The numbers show that as he posted a 90 percent contact rate and a 93.2 percent zone-contact rate. The 26 percent chase rate is manageable, especially considering the elite contact.
The power is the biggest question as Edwards posted an 85.7 mph average exit velocity and a 98.1 mph 90th percentile, which may put him closer to 20-grade power than 30. The good news is that if you are rostering Edwards in a dynasty league, you get an elite contact hitter who feels like a safe bet to steal 25 bases or more regularly.
While breakout may be a loose term for a player like Xavier Edwards, I do think he will provide sneaky fantasy value with high batting averages plus the ability to steal 30 bases. He should provide at least five home runs, and with the way players like Steven Kwan are valued, with regular playing time, Xavier Edwards could return similar value. The question does remain: will he play every day?
MLB Busts: Edward Cabrera, RHP
Cabrera has long been an arm that I have struggled with as a starting pitcher. The stuff is solid, but the control and command of those pitches are not. The results have been decent, as Cabrera had a 3.01 ERA across 71.2 innings in 2022 and followed that up with a 4.24 ERA in 99.2 innings in 2023. He even struck out 118 batters in 2023, but it came with a 15.2 percent walk rate and a WHIP of 1.44.
While the fastball is a solid pitch that sits 96 mph, Cabrera lived in the zone with it just 43 percent of the time, which was sixth percentile among all MLB pitchers. He also does not get swings out of the zone, having a chase rate of 28 percent, which was 20th percentile.
The changeup lacks velocity separation from the fastball, sitting 93 mph last year, and while it can miss bats, it does not live in the zone at all. The curveball might be Cabrera’s best pitch from a results standpoint as he can land it in the zone but also gets swings and misses out of the zone.
The strike-throwing severely limits Cabrera, and I do fear he will end up in the bullpen long-term. Injuries have also been a factor the last three seasons. While his stock is not high by any means, Cabrera is someone I don’t want to invest in a dynasty.
Prospect Sleeper: Dax Fulton, LHP
Fulton is one of the tougher prospects to evaluate and one that I still believe has some potential. He was one of my picks to break out in 2023, but an elbow injury and later surgery ended his Double-A season after just 33 innings. You have to wonder if the elbow was bothering him all year as he uncharacteristically pitched to a 5.18 ERA and walked 19 batters.
The tough thing about the injury was that Fulton was finally returning to form to end the 2022 season after having Tommy John in 2020 as a senior in high school.
Fulton pounds the zone with a fastball in the mid-90s, topping out at 97 mph. His tall frame creates a ton of extension and downhill plane while he also mixes in a two-seam fastball as well.
The curveball is his best offering that sits in the high-70s and gets into the low-80s. It varies from a 12-6 to a 1-7 shape but gets a ton of downward movement. The changeup will be a big sticking point for Fulton being a long-term starting pitcher.
His return from injury in 2024 will be telling, as it is possible that Fulton could make his MLB debut if all goes well and his prospect status is sure to take leaps forward if he can put together a solid 2024.
Prospect Breakout: Max Meyer, RHP
The Marlins seem to have a thing for pitchers with the last name Meyer in the first round of drafts, selecting Max Meyer third overall in the shortened 2020 draft. With no MiLB season in 2020, the Marlins sent Meyer straight to Double-A in 2021, where he dominated to the tune of a 2.41 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP while striking out 27 percent of the batters he faced. After making 12 starts in Triple-A in 2022, Meyer earned a chance to make his MLB debut, which didn’t go so hot, and in his second big league start, Meyer tore his UCL, leading to Tommy John Surgery.
The arsenal is predominantly fastball/slider for Meyer, with the fastball sitting in the mid-90s, which does not have much horizontal movement. But the fastball plays up enough to set up the wipeout slider, which misses a ton of bats, showing nice depth.
The emergence of the changeup will likely take Meyer to the next level of being a high-end starting pitcher. It showed over 15 inches of fading action before his injury, putting that movement profile in the plus category.
We don’t know what Meyer’s arsenal will look like coming back from Tommy John in 2024, but there are high hopes he can return to form and contribute to the Marlins rotation. There is a strong probability that Meyer will work his way back to Triple-A, but I believe he can spend a large portion of the year in the Marlins rotation and make an impact that is fantasy-relevant.
Pair this article with our Marlins top prospect list and be sure to check out our dynasty and prospect rankings to see where these players fall on an overall list.