March 3 Spring Training Notes for Dynasty Leagues
March 3 Spring Training Notes for Dynasty Leagues
Chris Clegg runs down all actionable info from Friday's Spring Training games.
If you missed yesterday’s run down, which included writeups on Grayson Rodriguez, Edward Cabrera, Nate Pearson, and ten more names, check it out here:
Brandon Walter, LHP, BOS
I wanted to lead with Brandon Walter because he’s been a bit underrated for a while and is finally jumping on people’s radars. The Red Sox rotation is full with Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Nick Pivetta, James Paxton, and Garrett Whitlock. Let’s fun down that list. Chris Sale 48.1 innings since 2020. Corey Kluber’s 2022 was his first healthy season since 2018. Nick Pivetta, just not a great starter. James Paxton is already hurt. I like Garrett Whitlock a lot but there are injury concerns there too.
We can keep going down the list. Everyone wants Tanner Houck to start, but he isn’t a starter. We saw some flashes from Kutter Crawford last year, but he’s not great, either. That’s a lot of rambling to say, enter Brandon Walter.
Walter pitched just 57.2 innings last season due to injuries, but dominated Double-A with a 2.88 ERA in 50 innings before two rough starts in Triple-A. When he first hit Triple-A in June is when he got hurt and his last start of the year was June 8.
Walter pitched two scoreless innings on Friday, striking out three and allowing one hit. He featured his sinker, changeup, and sweeper. His sweeper profiles as an easy plus pitch thanks to elite spin and movement. He fills the strike zone and induces weak contact with his sinker.
Despite not pitching much in Double-A, Walter is an arm that wouldn’t surprise me if he makes the Red Sox rotation out of camp. He has nothing left to prove in the Minors and is 26 years old. He’s a great grab in dynasty leagues and deep redraft leagues.
Matt Vierling, OF, DET
Matt Vierling is off to a blazing hot start in Detroit after his trade for Philadelphia this offseason. Vierling boasted strong contact skills in Philadelphia last year with an interesting power and speed profile. So far this spring, Vierling has six hits in 11 at bats, including two home runs.
On Thursday, Vierling went three-for-three with a home run and two singles. All batted balls were over 91.6 mph, including a 109.9 mph crushed single. Vierling has consistently hit the ball hard and has a career average exit velocity of 91.2 mph.
Vierling is versatile and is likely to play all over the place in Detroit, which is great for fantasy players. Last year he played every position in the field except catcher and shortstop. He is an interesting target in deeper dynasty leagues and even draft-and-hold formats as a player who can give you some interesting power and speed.
Luis Garcia, 2B, WSH
It seems crazy that the Nationals’ Luis Garcia is still only 22 years old. He debuted in 2020 and has since been profiled as a good hitter with not much of a fantasy skillset.
So far this spring, Garcia has been doing about what you would expect. Hitting for average but has added one home run in 12 at-bats. Garcia’s home run on Thursday came off the bat at 105.7 mph, which was the highest exit velocity of the game.
Garcia has seen a steady improvement in average exit velocity over the last three seasons, so it’s reasonable to wonder if he could take another step forward this year. Again, he is just 22 years old.
The biggest reason why Garcia has not gotten to more game power is the amount of ground balls he hits. He has never had a ground ball rate below 50 percent at any level of professional ball. In an extremely small sample, Garcia has an average launch angle of 11.9 degrees this spring.
Garcia is an interesting dynasty target as a player who can develop more power, has a good feel to hit, and some sneaky speed. Will he be a fantasy stud? Probably not. But he could be a 15 home run bat that steals five-to-seven bases with a solid batting average.
Will Wagner, 2B, HOU
Will Wagner was not on my radar until I saw him live in the Arizona Fall League. His swing is beautiful, and his data is quite intriguing. He is one of five minor leaguers with a 90th percentile exit velocity above 102.5 mph, a zone-contact rate above 85 percent, and a chase rate below 25 percent.
Wagner has looked good all spring and looks like a breakout prospect for 2023. He has four hits in 10 at-bats. He has a 90.7 average exit velocity so far on his tracked batted ball events. Wagner is widely available in dynasty leagues and someone you should target for 2023.
Rainer Nunez, 1B, TOR
Rainer Nunez can absolutely obliterate baseballs. Last season, he posted a 105.9 mph 90th percentile exit velocity. He hit 19 home runs with a .304/.340/.484 slash in 500 plate appearances.
Nunez went one-for-four on Thursday, but had two batted balls over 107 mph, including a 114 mph single that traveled 404 feet that smacked off the top of the center field wall. The only reason it was a single is because it was a walk-off hit. Nunez is not discussed in prospect circles and with first base as bad as it is in the minor league circle, he is a great target on waiver wires this offseason. If he excels at Double-A in 2023, he is going to fly up rankings. Buy in now.
Don't expect Bello to figure into the Red Sox rotation picture once he's built back up?