Live From the Florida State League: Fort Myers Mighty Mussels & Dunedin Blue Jays

Chris breaks down his live looks at both the Twins & Blue Jays Single-A teams.

Sorry for the delay on getting the rest of these done. After getting home from my trip I went straight to Charlotte for my brother-in-law’s wedding which took up the majority of my weekend. But we are back at it today with more writeups and updated rankings on the prospect and dynasty side.

Although Tampa and Clearwater was a superior matchup, we still had plenty of talent on display, with top prospect Walker Jenkins, first-rounder Arjun Nimmala, and several others. Let’s break them down.

Twins and Blue Jays Single-A Breakdown

Walker Jenkins, OF, MIN, 19, A

Jenkins is a leader on and off the field. Some things are hard to quantify, but when I watched Jenkins, he is the kind of player I want on my team. Pre-game, I watched how Jenkins went about his business plus interacted with young fans. During the game, after at-bats, he would go to the dugout and talk to the next few hitters about pitch sequencing and then seemingly be working on what he could do better his next at-bat. This was also a game in which he homered and reached base three times while driving in four runs.

Jenkins is well-filled out physically. Considering he won’t turn 20 years old until 2025, he looked like a man among boys in Single-A. I would not be shocked to see him in High-A very soon.

At the plate, he has a very small step forward but minimal hand movement in the box. His hips explode through the zone, but how synced up his hips, torso, and hands are really impressive. It is low-effort power, but in the game I saw, Jenkins had three batted balls north of 90 mph. He hits the ball where it is pitched and his opposite-field single might have been more impressive than his towering home run.

Jenkins did everything the right way, checking all the boxes I wanted to see and helping justify my top-10 ranking of him.

Arjun Nimmala, SS, TOR, 18, A

Nimmala was selected in the first round of the 2023 MLB draft but has had some bumps in the road. The complex sample was small post-draft, and he came into Spring Training and showed some solid things. Out of the gate in Single-A, things were not going great as Nimmala was hitting a smooth .167/.280/.306, which led to him being sent to the development list.

After nearly a month back in Dunedin, on the surface, things do look a bit better, especially with the power. The slash line is still a bit underwhelming as .235/.312/.593, but the power has been there as Nimmala has six home runs and 14 extra-base hits in 22 games. The strikeout rate sits at 33.3 percent, while the contact is sub-70 percent.

In my look, Nimmala got a heavy dose of breaking and offspeed pitches, in fact just four of the 15 pitches he saw were fastballs. He showed some whiffs against breaking balls, but also had a ton of called strikes where he did not seem to recognize the spin.

In the field, I thought Nimmala looked great at shortstop, an area that has really improved over the last year. He made several great plays, including a barehanded grab with a quick throw to first base.

I would not expect Nimmala to steal a ton of bases, as his speed is below average, but his power is legit. His average exit velocity since returning to Dunedin sits at 91 mph. He will just need to hit the ball at better angles, as the barrel rate is below six percent. Still, it is hard to argue with the kind of power output he has had.

I have said it since Spring Training: I think it could be a slow burn with Nimmala. Eventually, he will figure out the contact side of things, and when he does, he could become a potential high-end player.

Byron Chourio, OF, MIN, 19, A

I saw Chourio this spring and was pretty intrigued by his potential skillset and highly projectable frame. Chourio is a bean pole; I am not sure there is a better way to describe it, and his list of 6’2”/171 is probably on the heavy side. The switch hitter has had a rough go in Single-A this year, and all three numbers in his slash line start with a two. That is never ideal.

The bat-to-ball skills are actually pretty solid. Over his last 150 plate appearances, Chourio has a 77 percent overall contact rate, with the in-zone mark at a solid 87 percent. The problem is, there is no impact, so to speak. His average exit velocity of 83 mph and the 90th percentile of 96.7 mph are bottom of the barrel.

The thing Chourio has going for him is speed, as he has stolen 17 bases and has only been caught five times. He moves well and has good jumps in the outfield. I thought there were some intriguing traits with Chourio, but as you can see, there is a long way to go with this profile.

Brandon Winokur, SS, MIN, 19, A

Having been heavily on my radar since last summer’s draft, Winokur really stood out to me when I saw him on the backfields during Spring Training. He is a physically gifted 6’6”/210 athlete and has very loud tools. He hits the ball hard but also posts high-end run times for his size while having room to fill out.

Honestly, the results have not been great this year for Winokur, but that does not take away from the talent level. He has seven home runs in the year and has swiped 14 bases, but he has struck out 28 percent of the time. The contact rates are not so good as his overall mark sits at 62 percent and the in-zone at 73.

I saw Winokur swing through both fastballs and breaking balls and he had a ton of whiffs in the game. He also made a couple of stellar plays at shortstop, which for his size is impressive. Two balls Winokur did put in play were deep fly outs.

It might be a slower burn with Winokur’s development. The talent level is still there, though, and long term, I think he can be a really solid player.

Victor Arias, OF, TOR, 20, A

Arias was probably the most impressive under-the-radar player I saw in this game. Listed at 5’9”/150, Arias is MUCH bigger than the list suggests and he can get to plenty of power from the left side. With a 90th percentile exit velocity near 105 mph and a max of 113.4, Arias is already flashing above-average game power and plus raw. His home run in the game left the bat at just 100 mph, but it was a towering shot.

He moves pretty good as well and while I don’t expect Arias to be a burner on the base-paths he has been good. After stealing 15 bases at the complex, that trend has continued as he has 17 in Single-A this year.

The flaw in the profile is the amount of ground balls that he hits, though I will say that has improved tremendously. Here are Arias’ ground ball rates by month:

April: 60%

May: 58%

June: 47%

July: 45%

In the process, Arias’s barrel rate has trended upward and is near 10 percent over the last two months, and it has led to an OPS north of .900.

The contact skills are solid and have also been improving. Since June 1, an 86 percent in-zone mark with a 25 percent chase rate. That will play.

Arias is 0% rostered on Fantrax, and in deeper leagues, there are a lot worse shots you can take.

Paulshawn Pasqualotto, RHP, MIN, 23, A

You may look at a 23-year-old in Single-A and write him off completely. But Pasqualotto was selected in last summer’s draft in the 13th round. On the surface, the ERA looks horrific, sitting at 5.37, but this is why I find Minor League ERA relatively useless. The xFIP of 3.65 and FIP of 3.95 actually paint a better picture and are both strong marks for the Florida State League.

Pasqualotto was magnificent in the start, and I saw him as he allowed just one hit and one walk a piece across four innings while striking out six. He posted a 41 percent whiff rate and a 38 percent CSW. The only damage he allowed all start was the Victor Arias home run you can see above.

Armed with a fastball that sits 94 and touches 96, Pasqualotto showed good ride with the offering as well as some solid arm side run. The changeup was his most used secondary, sitting around 85 mph with heavy fade, registering as high as 18 inches but was consistently around the 16 inches mark.

Pasqualotto rounded out his arsenal with a cutter that sat around 88 mph and touched 91. I do think Pasqualotto could benefit tremendously from adding a slider or even a curveball to give him a pitch with north-south movement. Regardless, Pasqualotto is someone to watch as he has a 1.64 ERA over his last seven outings with a 40.7 percent strikeout rate and a sub-five percent walk rate.