Live From the Arizona Fall League: Weekend Recap

Mesa Solar Sox

Cole Mathis, 1B, Chicago Cubs

In his junior season at College of Charleston, Mathis mashed 14 home runs and slashed .335/.472/.650. The data was extremely good as he posted a 90 mph average exit velocity and a 108 mph 90th percentile. Not only does Mathis scorch baseballs, but he also makes a ton of contact, having an 89 percent in-zone rate and an 84 percent overall mark. Factor in an elite chase rate of 16 percent, and you are really cooking. The Cubs liked Mathis enough to draft him 54th overall in last summer’s draft.

Getting off to a semi-slow start to 2025, Mathis missed the majority of the season, getting only 128 plate appearances. It was a poor season, but the Cubs assigned him to Mesa at their home complex to get extra work.

On Sunday, Mathis blasted a 107 mph home run that traveled 454 feet and he drove in three runs. Mathis also had another strong ground out at 104 mph. So far in the AFL, Mathis is showing impressive bat speed and power numbers and also a strong approach. He is a solid buy low.

Aiden May, RHP, Miami Marlins

May put together a strong performance on the mound on Saturday, punching out three batters across four strong innings. He allowed just one hit and walk a piece which led to just one run.

From an arsenal standpoint, May led with his slider and sweeper, both having distinct shapes. The sweeper worked in the 81-83 mph range with 16-18 inches of sweeping action. The slider averaged nearly 89 mph with six-to-eight inches of glove-side movement.

May works his sinker up to 96 mph and sits 94-95 with good arm-side movement. There were a couple of pitches that were cutters at 95 mph, which is pretty strong, but I do wonder if he accidentally cut those pitches.

May rounds out his arsenal with an upper-80s changeup that is inconsistent in shape at times, but was effective. Having all the traits of a strong arsenal and starting pitcher, it will be interesting to follow May in 2026.

Surprise Saguaros

Josh Adamczewski, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers

We have signs of life! Adamczewski hit the ball very well over the weekend, logging five batted balls over 90 mph (91.1, 91.6, 95.9, 103.0, 106.2) across 15 innings of play. He’s one of my favorites and I haven’t been shy about that, and as little as AFL stats matter, it was starting to be a tough look. He was OPSing a mere .642 through six AFL contests entering Saturday’s contest against the Scottsdale Scorpions at Goodyear Ballpark, but he left the weekend sporting an .823 mark after blistering a double on Saturday and a solo home run on Sunday. He was robbed of extra bases by Ethan Petry with the second best snag I’ve seen out here, just trailing Enrique Bradfield Jr.’s home run robbery last week.

I have some concerns about Adamczewski’s bat should he be relegated to a corner outfield position. Brice Turang’s chokehold on the second base position would appear to be the reason for his defensive shift off of the cornerstone, but his bat profiles best on the dirt. He’s still just 20 and won’t turn 21 until May next year, so there’s plenty of developmental runway for him to grow into a more power-oriented approach.

Dylan Campbell, OF, Philadelphia Phillies

A quick glance at Campbell’s Baseball Reference does not paint him as a likely AFL breakout candidate, but he’s been one of the most productive hitters in the Saguaro’s lineup to-date. He was pretty quiet over the weekend save for an impressive opposite field poke that carried 372 feet into the Charro Lodge at Scottsdale Stadium on Sunday. I don’t think he’s much of a fantasy prospect, but he is an impressive athlete and former Big 12 standout showing off his tools early. He does a great job of getting the ball in the air (45% fly-ball rate in 2025) and to the pull-side (46.1% pull rate), but doesn’t make enough contact to capitalize. Given he’s already 23 years old and just made the leap to Double-A, a big jump in bat-to-ball is improbable.

Salt River Rafters

Esmerlyn Valdez, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

Saturday was a modest day for Valdez in the desert. He had just a single and reached base two more times via walk. It is okay though as Valdez redeemed himself on Sunday as he blasted two home runs, had a double and drove in four runs. Every batted ball was 104.8 mph or higher and the home runs both left the bat at 108 mph.

Valdez is no stranger to high-end exit velocities, though, as he had a 108 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and topped out at 116 during the regular season. He also had a 114.4 mph exit velocity this fall in Arizona.

He is not just a power hitter, though, as Valdez showed a strong in-zone contact rate of 85 percent this season. The approach is also strong as well as he chased just 20 percent of pitches out of the zone. While he did not chase often, he did struggle with contact on pitches out of the zone.

Last season, Josue Briceño led the AFL with ten home runs. Valdez had seven already in his first eight games. He is the runaway league MVP unless something crazy happens.

Jansel Luis, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks

I walked away pretty impressed Luis in my live looks at him. Being bigger than I expected, Luis still has room to fill out and add more power. If you look at the surface stats so far, you may not be impressed, but on Sunday, Luis collected three hits, including a double. He drove in two runs and had three hard-hit balls.

After once being fairly hyped coming out of the complex in 2023, Luis tappered off a bit, but has been solid. In 2025, Luis slashed .311/.347/.435 with five home runs and 24 stolen bases. I see more power in the tank coming for the 20 year old and I marked Luis as a player to keep an eye on after seeing him in Arizona.

Luis Perales, RHP, Boston Red Sox

Perales statline was bad on Sunday as he put up a bunch of threes across the board in two innings pitched. He did strike out three which was encouraging, but Perales also allowed three walks, three hits, and three earned runs. He served up a home run to Logan Wagner.

The positives to takeaway were that Perales generated nine whiffs, good for a 39 percent whiff rate. After touching triple digits three times last week, Perales hit 100.5 mph on Sunday and he averaged 99 mph. Showing elite traits on the fastball, Perales consistently clipped 19 inches of IVB.

The cutter worked in the low-90s with impressive traits and he generated a 75 percent whiff rate on the offering. Perales’ mid-80s changeup, while inconsistent in shape at times, missed bats at a high clip. He rounded out his arsenal with an 86-87 mph slider that showed good shape as well.

Perales is one of the best offseason buys for pitching prospects given the upside that he offers.

Glendale Desert Dogs

Jim Jarvis, 2B, Atlanta Braves

The Braves traded with the Tigers at the traded deadline and recieved Jarvis who spent time in Double-A and ended the year in Triple-A this year. Showing a lack of power during the season, Jarvis hit just two home runs across 413 plate apperances, but he did add 24 doubles and three triples. He swiped 14 bases as well while slashing .249/.324/.347.

While Jarvis’ AFL slash line is not great to this point, I was impressed by some at-bats I saw from him, and his arm in the field is impressive. On Satruday, Jarvis blasted a 103.4 mph home run. While he likely will never be a top prospect, there are some traits that could lead Jarvis to be a Major League bench bat in Atlanta.

Luke Sinnard, RHP, Atlanta Braves

Blowing out his elbow in the 2023 postseason at Indiana, Sinnard did not pitch in 2024 due to having Tommy John Surgery, but his sophomore year at Indiana showed the Braves enough to snag him in the third round of the 2024 draft. A 6’8” righty, Sinnard creates a tough look for hitters from a very high release point.

Sinnard was strong on Saturday, tossing three scoreless innings with four strikeouts and zero walks. He allowed three hits and generated eight whiffs, five of which came on the fastball.

His fastball is actually up from where it was pre-Tommy John, sitting 95 mph and topping out at 97. From a secondary standpoint, Sinnard relies heavily on his slider, which works in the upper-80s and touched 90 several times. Sinnard throws a curveball and a split-changeup as well..The curveball works 80-83 mph with an 11-5 shape and a ton of vertical drop. The slider is vastly improved from previous years, and the split-changeup was a really tough look for left-handed hitters.

The Braves develop pitchers, and Sinnard has the stuff to be the next one.

Logan Wagner, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers

Wagner has long been someone I love since seeing him play in high school here in South Carolina at P27 Academy. Having underrated traits, Wagner is a player I think could tap into power and be a Dodgers prospect who could rise up ranks.

While Wagner has been a dissapointment in the AFL to this point, he did blast a home run on a 98 mph Luis Perales fastball on Sunday. It came off the bat north of 105 mph and traveled 412 feet.

During the regular season, Wagner hit 15 home runs with 40 extra base hits in 533 plate appearances and even stole 18 bases. The hit tool is better than what we have seen in Arizona and I expect him to get things going soon.

Peoria Javelinas

Alfredo Duno, C, Cincinnati Reds

Most prospect enjoyers are aware of Duno’s heft. He’s listed at 6-foot-2, 210 pounds, which is perhaps the most hilariously incorrect height and weight in minor league baseball, but it’s even more apparent in person. He’s enormous but moves like a much smaller man — he’s impossibly fast and flexible for a man who is conservatively two inches taller and 30 pounds heavier than their minor league club purports.

Duno didn’t do much over the weekend. He finished Saturday’s game 1-for-2 with a walk and an RBI and wasn’t in the lineup on Sunday. He’s been rather quiet through the first week of competition. It’s plausible he’s tired after catching 81 games and appearing in 113 one year after playing just 32, but the larger factor is certainly his age; he’s just 19 years old and is three years younger than the average competition in the circuit. I left Saturday’s game very encouraged by his insane athleticism and ability behind the plate (moreso as a blocker and thrower than as a receiver).

Rhett Lowder, RHP, Cincinnati Reds

Lowder logged his fifth start back from a pair of injuries (forearm, oblique) that held him out for the vast majority of the season on Saturday. He threw just two innings (32 pitches) and was clearly on a pitch count. His fastball velocity was up about one mph over his 2024 stint over the big league club, but given the abbreviated start it’s reasonable to expect him to settle back into the 92-94 he sat previously. He had trouble locating his secondaries and didn’t miss many bats (18% whiff rate on 17 swings, all of which came on his slider), but managed to escape with just one run on his ledger. I wouldn’t call his outing particularly encouraging, but he threw hard enough and left the appearance healthy, both of which are wins.

Ethan Anderson, C, Baltimore Orioles

Anderson has probably been the biggest revelation for me over the last week. He’s impressive physically, standing 6-foot-2 and weighing in at 215 lbs. His results have been much louder in Arizona, due in part to the friendly environment, but he’s also had a knack for the barrel in my live looks. He had six batted balls over 95 mph between Saturday and Sunday, which may become a necessity if he has to move off the position. His results in 2025 were lackluster, but he posted outlier contact rates as a switch hitter for Virginia just a few years ago. He’s a player I could see raising some interest in 2026, but only relative to his current regard (relatively unheralded) and as far as his exit velocities will take him.

Scottsdale Scorpions

Seaver King, SS, Washington Nationals

It may go without saying, but it’s clear why Seaver King was a first-round talent last summer. He’s been one of Scottsdale’s most productive bats through seven games, trailing just Max Anderson in OPS (1.260) and Walker Janek in RBI (15). He’s a surefire shortstop who could slide over to center field based on pure sprint speed, and there are paths to offensive improvement with a quieted swing operation and culled chase tendencies.

He’s hit the ball hard consistently all week, but his biggest knock came on a 408-foot homer off of A.J. Causey. If there’s a buy-low window in your league, I’d sincerely consider inquiring.

Max Anderson, 2B, Detroit Tigers

Anderson has been an offensive force throughout the AFL thus far. He’s walked twice as often as he’s struck out and is running an on-base percentage north of .700 through his first five games. In some respects, an outlier first week is what you’d expect from a polished college bat that reached Triple-A to end the year. On the other hand, his plate discipline has been far better in the desert than it was with Toledo, and it’s leading to far better outcomes regardless of whether he puts the ball in play. His underlying data looks like an average regular.

D’Andre Smith, OF, New York Mets

There isn’t much fantasy appeal in Smith’s profile. His 2025 (.762 OPS in 101 games between A+ and AA) was far better than his 2024 (.603 in 47 games between the Complex, A, and A+), but he still struggled to be an impact bat and lost some positional versatility as he stopped playing on the dirt. He did manage to steal 31 bases, a habit that carried into the Arizona Fall League, and he added four on Saturday to tie Caleb Durbin’s single-game record.