Live from the Arizona Fall League: November 8, 2024

Chris and Beck break down the action from the AFL from Thursday.

Happy Friday, it is officially Fall Stars weekend at the AFL. The home run derby is tonight. Here is a list of the participants.

• Jac Caglianone

• Moises Ballesteros

• Josue Briceño

• Carter Jensen

• Kala’i Rosario

• Peyton Williams

• Brock Wilken

• Garrett Martin

The Fall Stars game is Saturday night. Rosters were announced here.

Anyways, we have a ton of action to talk about from Thursday. Let’s get to it!

Arizona Fall League Recap: 11/8/24

Mesa (Chris)

Nick Kurtz, 1B, Athletics, 21

While it was a slow day for Mesa’s hitters, Kurtz was one of the few bats who contributed. He collected two hits and reached base a third time via walk. In his first trip to the plate, Kurtz took a pitch on the outer half and smoked a line drive to the opposite field. The second hit of the day was a grounder in the gap between first and second base.

If you want one of the safest profiles in the draft, it is Nick Kurtz. In all three seasons at Wake Forest, Kurtz has hit and hit some more. He finished his college career with 61 home runs in 164 games, including 22 this season in 54 games. Having a strong eye at the plate, Kurtz finished his Wake career with a .510 OBP and 189 walks to just 130 strikeouts over 784 plate appearances.

He looks ready for the majors already despite being drafted this summer. A June or July callup feels quite reasonable at this point for the Athletics first baseman.

Caden Rose, OF, BOS, 23

A seventh rounder in this summers draft out of Alabama, Rose ended the season in High-A before being sent to the fall league. While the numbers have not stood out in the fall league, Rose has picked it up as of late and collected two hits on Thursday night. 

In his first two trips to the plate Rose had similar results. In both trips, Rose smoked line drives to centerfield that turned into singles. As one of two hitters that had a multi-hit game, Rose deserves a spot on the rundown today.

Scottsdale (Chris)

Drew Gilbert, OF, NYM, 24

While Scottsdale collected 11 hits and six runs, they had one extra base hit and it belonged to Gilbert, who doubled. He reached base two other times via a single and walk. While Gilbert’s AFL stats don’t pop off the page, Gilbert looked strong in my live looks at him in the AFL.

2025 feels like a huge season for Gilbert and how he factors into the Mets’ future plans. Gilbert strained his hamstring on April 6 and missed over three months of action. Upon return, Gilbert showed struggles, slashing just .215/.313/.393 in Triple-A, but he did hit ten home runs with eight doubles in 56 games. Being on the smaller side, power has always been a question, but Gilbert lifts the ball often and regularly gets to the pull side.

The exit velocity data was underwhelming as Gilbert posted just an 85 mph average exit velocity and a 101 mph 90th percentile. The contact data was solid, though, as he made contact on 74 percent of swings and 84 percent of swings in the zone. Gilbert chased at a better-than-average 26 percent rate, which helped lead to an 11 percent walk rate.

Sammy Siani, OF, PIT, 23

Siani won’t take home any AFL awards as his performance is not flashy, but he has been really solid and consistent allf fall. The looks in the outfield have been great as he gets good reads and jumps. The approach at the plate has been rock solid as well. Siani even hit a huge grand slam in one of my looks last week.

After starting his game out with a line drive single on Thursday, Siani immediately stole his fourth base of the fall. His second trip to the plate ended in another line drive single, this time to right field.

Siani is a former first-round pick in 2019 but has failed to live up to the hype over the years. Spending most of 2024 in Double-A Altoona, Siani slashed .265/.338/.401 with nine home runs and 33 extra-base hits. I do think Siani is a major leaguer after seeing him in person.

Salt River (Chris)

Robert Hassell III, OF, WSH, 23

In a game where Salt River scored three runs on six hits, Hassell felt like the lone-contributor. He had one of the the Rafters two extra base hits and mashed a home run that left the bat at 107 mph. Hassell nearly left the yard again in the eighth inning as he had a deep flyout that traveled 356 feet.

He is now up to four AFL home runs, which nearly reaches his total of five he hit during the regular season. Whiffs and breaking ball recognition are still a major concern for me and I would not look too much into into the fall league home run total.

Hassell should reach the majors in 2025, but I do wonder how impactful he will be for fantasy purposes. 

Ben Ross, SS, MIN, 23

Ross was the lone hitter who had a multi-hit performance for Salt River on Thursday as he had a single, double, and a walk. He nearly left the yard on a long flyout that left the bat at 100 mph and traveled 377 feet. He had two hard-hit balls north of 100 mph and continues to swing it well.

Ross was one of the more impressive players I saw in the AFL, despite what the stat line suggests. Spending some time around Ross in early morning BP and INF/OF sessions, I find him to be a highly coachable player. 

There is juice in the bat, evidenced by Ross’s 19 home runs in 2023, and even though that number took a step back in 2024, he is still an interesting bat.

Surprise (Beck)

Carter Jensen, C, KCR, 21

I’m looking for excuses to write about Carter Jensen and Surprise managing just three hits on Thursday night opened the door for me. I think Jensen is massively underrated (in fantasy, almost certainly not in MLB front offices). He has strong swing decision markers, makes enough contact, and hits the ball really hard – all of which have translated to the desert as he sits with a .400/.523/.829 slash and an invite to the AFL Home Run Derby. Beyond that, he has clocked pop times as low as 1.85, an elite mark that allowed him to throw out 27% of baserunners during the regular season. He’s also a fantastic person by all accounts – would recommend checking out his message regarding mental health.

Josh Stephan, RHP, TEX, 23

Stephan had one of the best pitching lines in the circuit coming into Thursday’s matchup with Glendale. He got knocked around in this one, ultimately surrendering seven hits and four earned runs over 3.1 innings. His stuff wasn’t bad; Savant tracked six distinct pitches, his slider and changeup registered whiff rates of 38% and 40%, respectively, and he generated called strikes at a strong rate. The problem was that each of his four most oft-utilized pitches got hit hard at least once. Gabriel Rincones Jr. laced a 110.6 mph single off of the changeup, Nathan Church added a 107.3 mph single off of the sinker, Bryan Rincon doubled off of the slider with a 100.8 mph liner, and Tyler Callihan smoked a cutter 100.6 mph but directly into the ground.

Glendale (Beck)

Connor Phillips, RHP, CIN, 23

Phillips feels like he should be older than he is. We’ve seen a little bit of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde out of him this year, including both versions in this start. His stuff was fully on display – he was averaging 97 mph on the heater and he left the start with a 31% overall whiff rate. Ultimately the question remains the same with him – can he throw enough strikes (and to a lesser extent can he be efficient as a starter)? He tossed 41 of 75 pitches for strikes in this one, a 55% rate that’s well below the minor league average. He only went 4.0 innings on those 75 pitches and walked four. It was a good start in the box score but the warts we’re painfully aware of are still present.

Gabriel Rincones Jr., OF, PHI, 23

I keep waiting for the Rincones breakout and it hasn’t fully materialized. That’s not to say he didn’t have a good 2024 regular season – he slashed .263/.357/.487 in 59 games with Reading – but he looks like he’s capable of much more. His tantalizing upside was on display on Thursday as he finished 4-for-5 with an RBI, two runs scored, and two stolen bases. He had the hardest hit batted ball in this game (a 110.6 mph single off of Josh Stephan) and three others over 95 mph. His deficiency appears to be against lefties as he’s OPSed just .493 and .665 against them in each of the last two seasons.

Leonardo Bernal, C, STL, 20

It’s easy to forget that Bernal is just 20 years old when you see him on a baseball field. He’s a big guy for a catcher and is capable of doing big time damage. Last time I wrote about him I mentioned the glut of backstops in the Cardinals’ system – that picture has changed a bit since with the announcement that St. Louis would play Willson Contreras at first base following Paul Goldschmidt’s departure. Here’s what I said a little under a week ago:

“The Cardinals are chock full of backstops in their system; they have Willson Contreras, Iván Herrera, Pedro Pagés, Jimmy Crooks, and Leonardo Bernal, and it’s tough to tell who is going to break through for playing time. For his part, Bernal had something of a breakout over 96 games with High-A Peoria, posting a .270/.343/.419 line before getting the bump to Springfield.”

Bernal finished with three hits, all singles, and registered a 105.8 EV in Thursday’s contest.

Peoria (Beck)

Luis Lara, OF, MIL, 19

Lara read that I was chirping him for being a singles hitter and said ‘how about three more, jerk’. He added a stolen base and a walk in an extremely productive day at the plate in which he didn’t make an out. I think he’s a very good ballplayer – he gets on base, plays excellent outfield defense, and uses his legs to make things happen on the basepaths – I just don’t see much projectability, if any. That will limit his fantasy ceiling.

Jared Sundstrom, OF, SEA, 23

Sundstrom blew this game wide open with a booming grand slam in the bottom of the third. It left the bat at 106.2 mph and traveled 420 feet. It’s nice to see he’s capable of that kind of damage coming off of an age-23 in Everett that produced just 13 home runs in 112 games. He was a more prolific doubles hitter (28), but given he’s limited to a defensive corner he’s going to have to do more damage to warrant MLB playing time. As it stands, T-Mobile might be too unfriendly to RHH for him to be viable offensively.

Ethan Salas, C, SDP, 18

His fairytale AFL campaign marches on. Salas exited the game with just one hit but it was an absolute rocket at 104.9 mph and really would have been a home run if not to dead center. He’s been impressive offensively basically the entire time I’ve been out here – I’ve seen him five or six times – and doubly so for an 18-year-old. He was serving as the DH in this game but I’ve appreciated his defense in the time I’ve seen him play the position, too.