Live From The Arizona Fall League: November 5, 2024

Chris and Beck's break downs from the Arizona Fall League action on Monday.

Another day, more Arizona Fall League action. Beck and I are here to break it all down! Today(Tuesday) is Andrew Painter and Eriq Swan day, which is exciting! We will have you covered with how they both look, but first, Monday’s breakdown.

Arizona Fall League Recap: 11/5/24

Peoria (Chris)

Ryan Birchard, RHP, MIL, 21

Birchard had a pretty typical day on Monday, tossing three scoreless, one-hit innings with four strikeouts. The negatives, he walked four and landed just half of his pitches for strikes. The strike-throwing has been a bit inconsistent during his pro career, and really the biggest thing holding him back. Birchard has done a good job limiting runs in the AFL and getting whiffs, but the walks are a major issue.

The 2023 fifth-rounder recently turned 21 and is coming off an injury-riddled season that saw him pitch just 18 innings in full-season ball. After a solid first start of the season in which Birchard struck out six across four scoreless innings with two walks, he was never the same upon return. 

Birchard has a strong arsenal. His fastball, which reaches 98, sits in the low-to-mid 90s. He throws two variations of a breaking ball: a slider in the mid-80s and a curveball in the upper-70s. His changeup and command are still work in progress. If he can throw more strikes, there is a chance Birchard could be a starter. Otherwise, he will likely wind up in the bullpen.

Ethan Salas, C, SD, 18

Peoria mustered just four hits in the game on Monday, and Salas was one of them, but it was just a single. So why am I writing about him? This is more to get my live-look thoughts on why Salas had the poor season he did in 2024. 

Salas is good behind the plate. For an 18-year-old, his receiving skills are good, and he has solid pop times. He did miss a transition from glove to hand in one of the games I saw him; otherwise, he looked fine behind the plate. 

Salas is a very disciplined hitter. He picks up spin well and knows the strike zone. He rarely swung at anything that was a ball. But he is also pretty passive in the zone. I think that is what hurt him all season, as the contact rates were still good and the chase rate was low. Salas works deep into counts and is not getting great pitches to hit with two strikes. With a bit more aggression, I bet we will see a rebound in 2025.

Scottsdale (Chris)

Jacob Reimer, 3B, NYM, 20

Reimer was the only Scottsdale hitter who had a multi-hit game on Monday, and he reached base a third time via walk. There were no extra-base hits in the contest for Scottsdale, so both of Reimer’s hits were singles. The first was a ground ball in the gap between short and third, and the second was a smoked line drive to left. 

Reimer was an interesting look. He has a strong 6’0” frame and plays with a high level of effort. He makes respectable contact and has shown the ability to hit the ball hard. Reimer did miss the majority of the 2024 regular season, only getting 95 plate appearances. He will turn 21 years old just before the 2025 season, which will probably be a good indicator of the kind of player he can be moving forward.

Sammy Siani, OF, PIT, 23

Siani has looked excellent in the outfield, making plays that most corner outfielders probably would not. He has also swung the bat quite well, has a good approach, and has spraying line drives to all fields. The hits continued on Wednesday as Siani collected a single and then stole his third base of the AFL.

Siani is a former first-round pick in 2019 but has failed to live up to the hype over the years. Spending most of 2024 in Double-A Altoona, Siani slashed .265/.338/.401 with nine home runs and 33 extra-base hits. 

Glendale (Chris)

Michael Turner, C, CHW, 26

Turner is a well-built catching prospect who was drafted in the ninth round of the 2022 draft. Spending the year in Double-A, Turner hit just two home runs but slashed .218/.325/.282. Seeing Turner previously in High-A, he seems to be working on a better approach this year in the AFL.

He had two hits in Monday’s action, a 104 mph double and a single. He also drove in five runs and reached base two more times via walk. He is hitting an impressive .429 with an OPS north of 1.000 in his time in the desert. 

Sean McLain, 3B, LAD, 23

McLain has continued to perform for Glendale and honestly has been as impressive as his brother Matt. Obviously, Matt is still the better player, but it has been fun to watch Sean, who had two hits, including a triple and three hard-hit balls on Monday. His single nearly left the yard in right field, traveling 372 feet. The triple was smoked to left field on a line drive at 311 feet.

The Dodgers have to be happy with McLain’s performance so far, as he is slashing .325/.481/.550 with two home runs and four extra-base hits. He has also walked more than he has struck out. This follows a 2024 season between Single-A and High-A in which he slashed .215/.326/.337 with six home runs in 405 plate appearances. Keep an eye on McLain in 2025; there might be something here.

Salt River (Beck)

Caleb Durbin, 2B, NYY, 24

The Durbin show marches on. He left Monday’s game with a single, a double, and a home run but was uncharacteristically absent on the basepaths (largely because those extra-base hits leave him without opportunities to run) as he chases down the AFL stolen base record. He’s played all over the field, I’ve seen him at 2B, 3B, SS, and OF, and he’s looked reasonably competent at all of them. He’s going to get run with the Yankees next season and should be a fan favorite.

Kala’i Rosario, OF, MIN, 22

Rosario launched Salt River’s first home run of the day in the third inning off of Kelvin Bautista. It left the bat at 108.1 mph and traveled 426 feet, affirming yet again that he has light tower power. He’s carrying a .302/.395/.476 slash through 76 plate appearances but has also struck out a fair bit against less-than-impressive pitching. If he can make the necessary adjustments to put more balls in play, the results could be very loud. He’ll look to defend his HR Derby title on Friday night.

Ryan Ritter, SS, COL, 23

There were 24 walks in this game. Long run times and sloppy baseball has been much of the story in my time out here (this one went 3 hours and 32 minutes). Ritter accounted for four of the 14 free passes collected by Rafters on Monday. He hasn’t exploded the way I’d hoped thus far – he’s managing a .125/.500/.292 line through 42 plate appearances – which is disappointing coming off a reasonably productive stint in Double-A.

Mesa (Beck)

Samy Natera, LHP, LAA, 25

It’s Samy’s birthday today! This glowing report will be my gift to him (and to you). He’d yet to surrender a run in seven AFL innings prior to last night’s 3.0-inning outing. He coughed up one earned but looked fantastic doing so, featuring a riding fastball at 92 - 94 mph (T-96 mph) that garnered a lot of whiffs, a slider (or other breaking ball variant) at 81 - 83 mph that was excellent against left-handed hitters, and a fading changeup at 83 - 84 mph that was a great platoon neutralizer. He was by far the most impressive starter I’ve seen (to be fair, I have yet to see Eriq Swan, Andrew Painter, or Grant Taylor), and I’m in on him despite his age.

Tre’ Morgan, 1B/OF, TBR, 22

Morgan didn’t do much of note at the plate – he walked and drove in a run – but I’m continually impressed with how he carries himself. He’s played LF exclusively out here, which is notable given the myriad options at first base already in Tampa’s organization, and he has done so with tenacity. He is a little too eager to lay out for the spectacular play which will have to be toned down should he transition there regularly, but he’s one of the few players that doesn’t care that the games are glorified scrimmages. I’m a fan.

Surprise (Beck)

Brett Squires, OF, KCR, 24

Monday was the Brett Squires revenge game after I expressed concerns about his swing mechanics in yesterday’s rundown. He finished 3-for-5 with a double but punched out twice – an issue that has plagued him while being older for the level each of the last two years. I mentioned it yesterday, but he looks like a ballplayer and can put a charge into one when he makes flush contact. He’s had a tough go in the AFL, striking out in 34.7% of all plate appearances and managing a meager .595 OPS through 16 games.

Doug Hodo III, OF, BAL, 24

Hodo is a pretty under-the-radar name in the O’s system. He’s a little older than most prospectors set their filters to capture, but he’s been rather exceptional over the last week and a half in the AFL and has interesting under-the-hood traits, namely above-average contact and chase profiles. He reached base in three of four plate appearances yesterday by way of two walks and a single and scored three runs in the process. 

Cody Freeman, 3B, TEX, 23

Freeman was a 4th rounder in 2019 and has pushed his way to Double-A in that time. He spent the entire year with Frisco in 2024, compiling a .264/.321/.432 line with 14 home runs and 15 stolen bases. He’s been even better in 16 games in the desert and has caught my eye a time or two. I worry about the frame – he’s listed at 5-foot-9, 180 pounds, which looks accurate to my eye – and that will put a cap on his power ceiling. He doesn’t presently have carrying tools that elevate the rest of his profile, and it’s hard to see how he breaks through with the big league club. Still, his Monday performance was fantastic as he finished 3-for-5 with three singles, a walk, and two runs scored.