Live From The Arizona Fall League: November 1, 2024

Chris and Beck break down their live looks from Thursday's Arizona Fall League action.

Happy November! I'm not sure where time went, but here we are as the AFL is approaching its final two weeks, and baseball will sadly be over for a little while. We had an interesting trade between the Braves and Angels yesterday, which should be the start of a fun offseason.

But while we still have game action, let’s talk about it! Breakdowns of our live looks from Thursday’s Arizona Fall League action.

Arizona Fall League Recap: 11/1/24

Glendale (Chris)

Grant Taylor, RHP, CHW, 22

Taylor pitched just one inning on Thursday and was BABIP’d to death. He allowed an infield single to begin the game and had several other ground ball and bloop hits, which led to three hits and one earned run across his inning of work. He struck out one and walked one in his start.

The stuff looked good, though, as Taylor ran his fastball up to 98 mph and showed a good feel for his slider and curveball. The curveball worked around 84 mph with nice depth and an 11-5 shape. The slider sat near 87 mph with good horizontal movement and some depth. Taylor also threw a couple of changeups around 88 mph.

The stats don’t look great so far in the AFL, but I would not worry, honestly. Taylor is still rehabbing from a lat strain, and pitches move differently in Arizona than he is used to. He still feels like an excellent buy for dynasty leagues.

Surprise (Chris)

Jac Caglianone, 1B, KC, 21

To no surprise, Caglianone can mash. It was on full display as he hit two home runs and added a single in Thursday’s action. These were no ordinary home runs either. The homers had distances of 424 and 437 feet with exit velocities of 111.6 and 106 mph. His single left the bat with an insane 117.3 mph exit velocity. Oh, and he also had two more batted balls at 110.8 and 108.3 mph. 

In my looks so far, the swing is a little flat, and I have noticed he struggles to lift on pitches lower in the zone. The power is undeniable. But I worry his chase and flat swing may limit the massive upside.

Douglas Hodo, OF, BAL, 24

Hodo is on quite a heater right now. After hitting a big home run on Wednesday, he collected three more hits on Thursday, including a double. He posted an exit velocity up to 108 mph on one of his singles.

Missing some time in 2024, Hodo had 420 plate appearances in which he hit nine home runs and had 20 doubles while slashing .244/.382/.388. His contact skills are slightly above-average, but he rarely chases or expands his zone, which helps him run a higher OBP.

Scottsdale (Chris)

Jett Williams, MI/OF, NYM, 21

Williams had quite a strong game on Thursday, showing a good line drive approach and mashed a big home run to left-centerfield. It was Williams's second AFL home run, and he added his third double of the fall. The stats have not been pretty, but Williams missed nearly all of the 2024 season due to a wrist injury.

While undersized, Williams still has juice in the bat and has shown the ability to get to power. The hit tool and speed will be the carrying tools here, but I would not expect Williams to be a zero in the power department.

Sammy Siani, OF, PIT, 23

Siani has looked excellent in the outfield, in my opinion, and has swung the bat well, having a steady line-drive approach. He reached base three times on Thursday, with two being walks, but he mashed a grand slam in the eighth inning in a blowout win for Scottsdale. He might knock on the door of seeing time in Pittsburgh’s outfield soon. 

Siani is a former first-round pick in 2019 but has failed to live up to the hype over the years. Spending most of 2024 in Double-A Altoona, Siani slashed .265/.338/.401 with nine home runs and 33 extra-base hits. 

Jake Miller, LHP, DET, 23

Miller pitched an incredible game on Thursday and had one of the most impressive outings of any arm I have seen him out here as he struck out six batters over 3.1 scoreless innings. He allowed two hits and a walk and threw strikes at a solid 62 percent.

The fastball sits in the lower 90s, working between 90 and 93 mph, and the changeup was highly impressive. Miller mixed a shorter gyro slider and a more horizontal sweeper. He was featured in my prospects to buy before the AFL saying:

Miller flew under the radar most of the year despite putting up really impressive numbers. Part of the reason could be that he spent most of the year in Single-A as a 22-year-old, but Miller did finish out in Double-A.

An eight-round pick in the 2022 draft, Miller was one of the younger college arms in that cycle. After some struggles and missed time in 2023, Miller has come out looking like a different arm in 2024. Between three levels and 87.1 innings pitches, Miller posted a 1.85 ERA with 104 strikeouts to just 17 walks. He threw strikes at a 69.4 percent clip all year and had very solid whiff rates.

Miller throws two fastball variations, both sitting around 93 mph. The four-seam has above-average IVB from a 5’10” release height, with the sinker getting 10-12 inches of horizontal movement. He also throws two slider variations, with the sweeper getting 17 inches of horizontal and the shorter slider having more depth and six inches of horizontal movement. Both variations sit near 80 mph. The changeup has heavy fading action, sitting near 85 mph, giving him a third velocity band.

With the stuff and command, Miller has a chance to have a really strong Fall League.

Salt River (Beck)

Jackson Fristoe, RHP, NYY, 23

If you want to find a bright side for Jackson Fristoe’s performance on Thursday, it would be that only four of the five runs charged to him probably should have been earned. He’s also 6-foot-4 and a professional athlete (some guys have all the luck) so he’ll be fine. Unfortunately, I walked away from this live look, thinking that his fastball wouldn’t play at the big league level. It was topping out at 94 mph and coming out of the hand flat. Hitters were all over it, and he finished the day with five earned runs (seven total) on five hits and two walks while recording just two outs.

Tommy Troy, 2B, ARI, 22

I’ll be frank: the Rafters had nothing going all day. Troy was the only batter with more than one hit in the contest (both singles) but continues to look like the most polished hitter on the roster. He’s a little smaller than you may think if you’ve never seen him in person (just ask DD member Skylar Nelson, who remarked on his stature while sitting with me during today’s game), but he’s strong and stout. The regular season wasn’t kind to him, but he’s a surefire major leaguer.

Peoria (Beck)

Leodalis De Vries, SS, SDP, 18

I wrote what I thought was a very nice blurb about De Vries yesterday (a nice Padres fan shared it on Twitter – if you’re reading, Ryan, hello), lauding him for his fluidity, quick hands, and general defensive acumen while noting that he hadn’t made much of note at the plate. Naturally, he launched his first AFL home run and committed a throwing error just a few hours after the rundown was posted, running entirely counter to the sentiment I’d expressed. To be clear – I mean what I said. He’s unpolished (he’s freshly 18 and playing well above his age) but has the athleticism and actions to be a plus defender eventually. He has the juice to send a ball 415 feet at 104.4 mph, evidenced by the way he sent a ball 415 feet at 104.4 mph yesterday. 

Juan Baez, 2B, MIL, 19

There wasn’t much cooking for Peoria beyond the De Vries solo shot. They managed just five total hits – they actually reached more frequently on free passes in this contest – but two of them came off the bat of Juan Baez. They were both singles in typical Baez fashion and they raised his AFL line to .354/.466/.604.

Dalvy Rosario, OF, MIA, 24

Rosario had a sneaky stuffed line on Thursday, finishing with a double, two walks, and a stolen base. The 24-year-old Dominican Republic native has struggled with the bat as a professional (career .623 OPS over 530 games) and is serving as a late addition to the AFL circuit as guys get plucked for Team USA or otherwise depart. He looks like an athlete, but I’d be surprised to see him rostered in almost any dynasty league.

Mesa (Beck)

Nick Kurtz, 1B, OAK, 21

Kurtz ended the day a homer shy of the cycle and has now strung together seven hits in the two games I’ve seen him. He was a homer shy of the cycle after collecting a double and a triple in an 11-run first inning for Mesa, the former being a mammoth blast that the stadium barely held and the former a crafty piece of hitting on a breaking ball down and in that he shot down the right field line. He’s impressive and should go early in FYPDs. It would be reasonable to take him as early as two but he should not last beyond the sixth pick. His final line on Thursday was 4-for-5 with a double, a triple, two singles, a walk, four RBIs, and three runs scored.

Xavier Isaac, 1B, TBR, 20

Thursday was my first time seeing Isaac in person, and I have to say he looked to be in fantastic shape. Before you tell me we’re not selling jeans here, a quick reminder that you don’t know me, and maybe I am. Jokes aside, I was impressed with his mobility, and it’s always nice that your video looks corroborated in person. He finished the day with three hits in five at-bats including a double – a good game by most standards – but had some ugly misses, too. I remain concerned about his contact rate, but he might hit the ball hard enough that it doesn’t matter, assuming he limits the strikeouts to a reasonable degree. He punched out twice in this game, and none of the arms he saw were particularly overpowering (in my opinion, and I’m not standing in the box).

Niko Kavadas, 1B, LAA, 26

A 26-year-old first baseman with MLB service time hit two runs… would be the cynical take on the line Kavadas posted. He had one of the best games (if not the best) of the entire circuit thus far, finishing 4-for-5 with the aforementioned dingers, two singles, two walks, six RBIs, and three runs scored. We’re pretty up to speed on what Kavadas is at this point and it should not come as a surprise when he performs well in this environment. In his defense, the homers were impressive – one to the opposite field and one with an approximately 45-degree launch angle that carried out to the pull side – and hitting the ball very hard and very far is better than the alternative.

David Avitia, C, CHC, 26

Just for the record, it’s pronounced Ah-vuh-tee-uh (this coming from a guy who was saying Uh-vee-shee-uh all afternoon). He latched on to the Cubs as an undrafted free agent in 2022 and has cemented himself as a defense-first backstop, which is almost a necessity given that he has not slugged over .300 or OPSed over .600 since his second season at Grand Canyon in 2019. Yesterday was his very first fall league game and the first time in his professional career he collected four hits in a game (three singles and a double). He’s a non-prospect but represents a critical cohort of players for the integrity of minor league baseball, the thankless org guys without whom there would be no environment for developing talent with brighter MLB futures.