Live from the Arizona Fall League: 10/16/25

Mesa Solar Sox

Karson Milbrandt, RHP, Miami Marlins (3.0 IP, H, ER, 3 BB, 7 K)

Milbrandt was excellent on Thursday despite some snags commanding his secondary offerings. He was averaging 95 mph on his four-seam fastball and regularly getting 18 inches of hop, leading to a 50% chase rate on 18 swings. He managed to strike out seven and keep a reasonably clean slate through three innings while being in the zone just 42% of the time. His delivery is busy — if you don’t believe me, just check out some of the photos Regan snapped (@reganmvaca on Twitter) — and it’s a major contributor to his inconsistent locations. I like Milbrandt as an undervalued pick-up this offseason.

PJ Morlando, OF, Miami Marlins (0-4, 3 K)

Morlando was overheard referring to Luis De León as prime Randy Johnson before his second plate appearance. Hitting a same-side breaking ball appears to be an insurmountable task for last year’s first round pick, and everyone in the desert knows it. He was given a healthy helping of sliders on Thursday (10) and whiffed on five of six swings. It’s plausible he eventually moves to first base, and he might not have enough bat to justify playing time if he’s consistently bullied by good left-handed stuff. A platoon-only corner outfielder or infielder is not a desirable fantasy asset. He’s extremely talented and could make adjustments, but I’d be looking to sell this fall.

Surprise Saguaros

Daniel Vazquez, SS/3B, Kansas City Royals (3-6, HR, 4 RBI)

Vazquez is a player I have seen often spending time in Colombia for parts of three seasons. He grew and added good weight and put together a strong 2025 season, which was arguably his best yet. Across 463 plate appearances, he slashed .260/.333/.351 with 32 extra base hits and 27 stolen bases.

Playing third base for the first time in his career in Arizona, Vazquez has looked the part and has shown good athleticism. On Thursday, Vazquez blasted a home run and added two singles on the day. The home run left the bat at 105 mph and traveled 430 feet.

Vazquez had four balls hit above 91 mph and nearly left the yard a second time on a 360-foot flyout. He has a long way to go as a prospect, but he has shown some good things in my looks in Arizona.

Dylan Dreiling, OF, Texas Rangers (2-4, HR, 4 RBI, BB)

Dreiling is an interesting player who ran strong underlying data but did not put up good surface numbers. A lot of this stems from a low zone-swing rate and one of the lowest zone-mius-chase swing rates.

During the regular season, Dreiling reached 483 plate appearances despite dealing with injury, and he slashed .226/.319/.381 with 12 home runs, 37 extra base hits, and 15 stolen bases.

Last night, Dreiling hit his first home run of the Fall League, a 111.7 mph shot that traveled 431 feet. This season, he had a near 105 mph 90th percentile exit velocity with plus or better contact rates. He ran a 26 percent chase rate, but the lack of in-zone swings is concerning.

Salt River Rafters

Esmerlyn Valdez, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates (2-2, HR, 3 RBI, 2 R, BB)

Valdez is the hottest man in the western hemisphere. He pummeled his fifth AFL home run in just six games on Thursday, this one a 102.6 mph blast to give Salt River a 2-0 lead in the first. He’s up to 31 total home runs in 129 games stretching back through the regular season and looks like a potential impact bat for an organization that’s struggled to develop them. He likely opens 2026 in Double-A with an outside chance to debut by season’s end.

Tony Blanco Jr., 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates (2-4, HR, 4 RBI, 2 R, BB, 2 K)

Blanco hit a baseball 112.2 mph that landed somewhere in Apache county. He’s going to post absurd trackman data this fall, which is good news for those who roster him. The best bet is to parlay the Twitter clips and prospect hype cycle into a favorable trade. He doesn’t have nearly enough bat-to-ball to make good on his 80-grade raw power, especially against better pitching. He ran a 57.4% overall contact rate between the Complex and Single-A as a 20-year-old in 2025.

Braylen Wimmer, OF, Colorado Rockies (2-4, R, 2 SB, BB, K)

Wimmer turned in a solid 2025 campaign two years after being drafted in the eighth round out of South Carolina, finishing with an .832 OPS, 14 home runs, and 26 stolen bases in 131 games. He had to make the Spokane to Hartford transition, one of the more difficult High-A to Double-A jumps, and took some time to adjust but handled it reasonably well overall. Now in Phoenix, Wimmer has been underwhelming through 27 plate appearances but righted the ship with a two knock, two-stolen base night on Thursday. I like him as a deep league target — he’s a good athlete in a solid frame with reasonable contact rates and a healthy pulled fly ball rate.

Glendale Desert Dogs

Cutter Coffey, 3B, TOR (2-5, RBI, 2 K)

Coffey was the lone bright-ish spot in Glendale’s lineup on Thursday. The team failed to log an extra-base hit and was 1-18 with runners in scoring position, so Coffey’s 2-5 night was a standout in relative terms. He logged the hardest hit batted ball event of the contest with a 107.4 mph ground-ball single in the fourth inning and generally looked like one of the more physically impressive players on the field.

Hagen Smith, LHP, Chicago White Sox (3.0 IP, H, 2 BB, 5 K)

Thursday was my first time seeing Hagen Smith in person post-draft. He had a tremendously strange first year in pro-ball, going from being hidden on backfields during Spring Training to walking the world to being passable for a stretch of starts in the middle of the season. He ultimately ended the year with a 3.57 ERA, 33.9% K-rate, and 17.6% walk rate. He was a little more accurate in Thursday’s game and picked up a healthy number of strikeouts (5), but the pitch data wasn’t particularly encouraging. He was sitting 94.5 on the heater, down a smidge from his Arkansas days, and the shape looked more average than plus. Hitters made contact in the zone on it at an 85% clip. He’ll need to throw it harder if the shape stays generic. His slider, on the other hand, was a weapon. He zoned it just 31% of the time but stole some strikes with some help from Graysen Tarlow behind the dish.

Peoria Javelinas

Enrique Bradfield Jr., OF, Baltimore Orioles (3-5, 2B, 3 RBI, 3 SB)

Bradfield was a star in yesterday’s action. He collected three hits yesterday, including a 107 mph double and a 104 mph single. Considering he topped out around 104 mph during the regular season, this is a huge development. Bradfield also stole three bases, and made a diving catch where he appeared to break his wrist, but wound up staying in the game. To wrap things up, Bradfield made an incredible home run robbery to end the game and Mesa’s run at a comeback.

Being a 70-runner with a 70-glove, having a bit of power would be a huge development for Bradfield. He was one of the most impressive players on the field yesterday and is someone who should reach the Majors early next year.

Cam Collier, 1B, Cincinnati Reds (2-3, 2B, BB)

Collier made some good plays in the field at first base and collected two hits on the day. What I loved most about what I saw from Collier was the hustle. He was busting it 110 percent every play, even on pop-ups. On one pop-up to second base, Collier was hustling so hard he made it to second base by the time the ball was caught.

Playing first base, Collier will need to get to power. He hit just four home runs across 396 plate appearances this season. The double that Collier hit on Thursday did come off the bat at 103 mph, and he has already hit a ball 109 mph in a small sample in Aóizona.

Luis De León, LHP, Baltimore Orioles (4.1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K)

In a 2025 season marred by injury, De León pitched just 87 innings, he finished the year on a high note. In his final six starts, De León struck out at least eight batters in every start and included a career-high 12-strikeout game sprinkled in. In seven starts from the start of August forward, De León posted a 1.47 ERA with a 41 percent strikeout rate.

Two starts into the fall league, and De León dominated again yesterday. Tossing 4.1 innings, he allowed just three hits and two walks, but struck out five batters.

The 6’3” lefty has room to add to his frame, which has a list weight of 168, but he already has a fastball that sat 96 mph and topped at 97.5 mph. It is a groundball-inducing offering. It gets around 16 inches of horizontal movement on average.

The slider sits in the mid-80s with around four inches of horizontal, and De León throws it to both-handed hitters. His changeup sits in the upper-80s with nice fading action. It averaged 20 inches of horizontal movement. De León is also working on a new splitter, which worked 82-5 mph with good depth and around nine inches of horizontal.

This might be one of the best pitchers in the Arizona Fall League.

Scottsdale Scorpions

Kevin McGonigle, 3B, Detroit Tigers (2-4, 2B, SB)

McGonigle is the best prospect in the AFL, and it shows on the field. Playing third base for the first time in his career is something interesting to watch, and it will give the Tigers good positional flexibility when he does reach the Majors.

McGonigle smoked a double on 103.6 off the bat on an 85 mph slider that came in on his hands. He showed impressive bat and hand speed to turn on the ball down the line.

The contact rates are remarkably impressive, achieving an overall mark of 83 percent with an in-zone contact rate of 87 percent. The approach has been stellar throughout McGonigle’s career, with a chase rate of 20 percent. Not only does McGonigle rarely expand the zone, but he also does serious damage on pitches in the zone, having elite zone and heart swing rates.

While he may be small, McGonigle has more power than you might think. The exit velocities show that as McGonigle has reached 113 mph and 112 mph several times in his career. The 90th percentile exit velocity of 106 mph is already plus, and when you factor in the hit tool and angles, this is a special talent.

Walker Janek, C, Houston Astros

Janek, the Astros’ 2024 first-rounder, put up a successful first season in pro ball even though he missed time and had just 399 plate appearances. Over those, Janek hit 12 home runs and had 21 doubles while posting a .263/.333/.433 slash line.

Last night, Janek hit his second home run in five games played, a 99.9 mph shot that carried 386 feet to the opposite field. His other home run out here was a 103.3 mph shot.

While being known for his defensive skills, Janek can swing it. He looks like the Astros catcher of the future.