Houston Astros Top Prospects 2024

Houston Astros Top Prospects for dynasty fantasy baseball including: Jacob Melton, Zach Dezenzo, Luis Baez, Joey Loperfido and more.

Welcome to our team prospect rankings. Over the next two months, I will be pumping out team top prospect rankings and evaluations for dynasty baseball. These reports are generated from live looks, film study, and advanced data analysis to bring you in-depth fantasy scouting reports on every player you need to know, with today’s being the Houston Astros Top Prospects.

Not all 30 players in each writeup will be dynasty relevant, but many will, and if you play in a deep league, certainly most of the names will be worth knowing.

Each player has a detailed write-up. The top 10 rankings and writeups are free for all, but the rest of the top prospects are for paid subs. Get an edge in your dynasty leagues and get in on some of these players first! Let’s get to it: our Houston Astros top prospects.

Houston Astros Top Prospects

1. Jacob Melton, OF, 24, 6’3”/208

After being selected in the second round of the 2022 draft out of Oregon State, Melton enjoyed a successful first full pro season, hitting 23 home runs and swiping 46 bases between High-A and Double-A. Melton is a strong athlete with a smooth swing from the left side of the plate, creating effortless power when he makes contact.

Melton posted a 90th percentile exit velocity that was easily plus or better, just north of 106 mph. Starting open with a quick leg kick, Melton has an explosive lower half that helps generate solid power. 

Looking at the batting average, you might not think Melton makes decent contact, but he posted a 76 percent overall contact rate, above average for his level. While he may have a bigger frame, Melton moves exceptionally well, clocking plus run times and being quite efficient on the base paths, stealing 46 bases in 53 attempts.

Playing a strong centerfield, Melton has all the tools in the world to be a solid everyday player for the Astros. While Melton did show extreme splits by posting just a .653 OPS against lefties, it was a small sample. There is potential for Melton to be a top 25 caliber prospect at some point in 2024 if the contact skills carry over to higher levels.

FFG: Power/Speed CF

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: .270/.350/30 HR/20 SB

Variance: High

Buy/Sell: Buy

2. Zach Dezenzo, 3B, 23, 6’4”/220

After a strong career at Ohio State, many still questioned Dezenzo’s ability to perform, which landed him in the 12th round of the 2022 draft to the Astros. After a small sample of pro ball in 2022, Dezenzo made it to Double-A pretty quickly in 2023 and combined to hit 18 home runs and steal 22 bases while slashing .305/.383/.531. 

Dezenzo has massive power, posting a 108 mph 90th percentile exit velocity during the regular season while hitting the ball at ideal angles, shown by a 41 percent sweet spot rate. The average exit velocity was also pretty elite, clocking in north of 92 mph. 

Dezenzo has a discerning eye, not often chasing out of the zone, which helps his walk rates and OBP. The contact skills are still a bit in question, but Dezenzo posted a contact rate right at 70 percent for the season. 

A strong athlete with decent speed, Dezenzo stole 22 bases on 24 attempts in 2023. If the contact rates can tick up a few percentage points in 2024, Dezenzo’s stock will surge, but he is already a top 100 prospect in my mind.

FFG: Power Hitting 3B/2B

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: .270/.350/25 HR/10 SB

Variance: High

Buy/Sell: Buy

3. Luis Baez, OF, 19, 6’1”/205

Baez signed in the 2022 international class and immediately looked like a stud in the DSL that summer. With a physically impressive build, which has now reportedly become 6’3”, Baez shows power and athleticism.

His 2023 season was a step back from 2022, but Baez did reach Single-A as a 19 year old and slashed .248/.357/.481 with 11 home runs across 255 plate appearances. Baez showed respectable contact skills upon moving to SIngle-A, posting an overall rate of 73 percent while also showing a good feel lift and the ability to impact the ball.

Power comes easy for Baez, who steps out slightly but uses that little bit of openness to torque his lower half, creating a ton of pop. Baez consistently hit the ball hard when he came to Fayetteville, mashing a home run as high as 112 mph, with several others coming in north of 105 mph.

Baez is a solid investment for all dynasty managers this offseason because if all clicks, his stock will rise quickly. There is 25+ home run potential with a decent feel to hit in Baez’s athletic frame.

FFG: Power Hitting OF

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: .275/.350/25 HR/7 SB

Variance: High

Buy/Sell: Buy

4. Joey Loperfido, OF/2B, 24, 6’3”/220

A seventh-rounder in the 2021 draft out of Duke, Loperfido put together a solid first pro season in 2022, showing power, speed, and a good feel to hit. In 2023, he fully broke out, starting the year in High-A, but making it all the way to Triple-A by season’s end. On the year, he slashed .278/.370/.510 with 25 home runs and 27 stolen bases.

While the power likely played up due to being in hitter-friendly environments at all three levels he played at, the exit velocity was still respectable and showed above-average game power. 

While the contact skills did show some regression in Triple-A, Loperfido finished the year with a contact rate of just over 74 percent, which is an average rate, but in his smaller Triple-A sample, that number dropped to 67 percent with a 78 percent zone contact rate.

Loperfido is a threat on the base paths while showing above-average speed. This season, he swiped 27 bases while getting caught stealing just four times. The speed also helps his versatility in the field, as Loperfido spent time at all outfield spots and second and first base. The versatility helps his ability to get on the field in Houston quicker, and Loperfido could profile as a solid power and speed threat.

FFG: UTL Power/Speed Threat

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: .270/.360/20 HR/20 SB

Variance: High

Buy/Sell: Buy

5. Brice Matthews, SS, 21, 6’0”/190

What stands out to me most about Matthews is his ability to hit all pitches well, as he posts strong numbers against high-velocity fastballs but also picks up spin extremely well. A patient hitter with a strong feel for the strike zone, Matthews chased less than 20 percent of pitches out of the zone at Nebraska in 2023.

During his final collegiate season, Matthews hit 20 home runs and stole 20 bases while slashing .359/.481/.723 and striking out just 20 percent of the time. He has exit velocities as high as 113 mph this year and is an excellent athlete. The 90th percentile exit velocity checked in with an impressive 109.4 mph 90th percentile exit velocity.

Matthews is an analytic darling who fits the Astros system well. While the contact was inconsistent in his debut in Single-A (70%), he is still a player that Astros fans should have plenty to look forward to with his power, speed, and athleticism.

FFG: Power/Speed SS

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: .270/.345/20 HR/20 SB

Variance: High

Buy/Sell: Buy

6. Will Wagner, 2B, 25, 5’11”/210

Wagner has been an OBP machine dating back to his college days at Liberty. The son of world-class closer Billy, Will, was selected in the 18th round of the 2021 draft. Injuries caused him to miss nearly two months during the middle of the season, but Wagner played 65 games, slashing .337/.420/.518 with seven home runs and six stolen bases.

A passive hitter who does not expand the zone often, Wagner made contact on 80 percent of pitches he saw. The power and exit velocities are closer to the league average, but Wagner profiles as the type that will collect a ton of doubles and respectable home run totals.

While second base is more of his natural home, Wagner did see about 33 percent of his games at third base in 2023. He could debut at some point in 2024.

FFG: High OBP OF

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: .260/.360/25 HR/10 SB

Variance: High

Buy/Sell: Buy In Deep Leagues

7. Waner Luciano, 3B, 18, 6’1”/170

Playing across the diamond in 2023, Luciano had a strong year at the complex, hitting ten home runs and eight doubles in 45 games. The slash line of .247/.345/.476 leaves a little to be desired, but Luciano struck out just 18.5 percent of the time and walked over 11 percent.

The underlying data on Luciano was quite impressive, though, as the 18-year-old hit the ball hard, posting a 90th percentile exit velocity north of 103 mph and above the MLB average. His zone contact rate of 87 percent was impressive and suggests that his hit tool is much better than you might think by looking at his .247 average. The higher walk rate is backed by a low chase rate of 22 percent.

The contact rates plus hard-hit data suggest that Luciano could be a breakout in 2024, so I would look to get in on him sooner rather than later.

FFG: Power/Hit Inf

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: .280/.370/25 HR/5 SB

Variance: High

Buy/Sell: Buy Everywhere

8. Zach Cole, OF, 23, 6’2”/190

Cole was a great find by the Astros in the 2022 draft, selected in the 10th round out of Ball State. In his first full professional season in 2023, Cole spent time between Single-A and High-A, slashing a combined .258/.380/.489 with 19 home runs and 37 stolen bases. The numbers really began to tick up after a slow start to the season. In 70 games from June 7 forward, Cole had 29 extra-base hits, 24 stolen bases, and a .907 OPS.

A strong athlete, Cole brings a ton of upside to the table, being a strong glove with power and speed. The contact rates border on a scary number, as he made contact on just 62 percent of pitches in 2023.

There is no denying his power as he posted a 107 mph 90th percentile exit velocity in 2023 to pair with a 91 mph average exit velocity. Cole posts plus clock times and steals bases with ease, swiping 37 bases on nine attempts in 2023.

If the contact skills develop at all, there is a highly intriguing player here.

FFG: Power/Speed OF w/no Hit Tool

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: .250/.330/25 HR/30 SB

Variance: High

Buy/Sell: Buy In Deep League

9. Kenedy Corona, OF, 23, 5’10”/184

Corona was originally part of the Mets farm system before being traded to the Astros as part of the Jake Marisnick deal. Being on the smaller side at 5’10”, shows decent power and speed, being a good athlete who can play all three outfield positions. 

In 2023, spending most of the season in Double-A, Corona hit 22 home runs and stole 32 bases across 520 plate appearances. The slash line was slightly underwhelming at .251/.331/.458, while Corona showed an aggressive approach, swinging at nearly 50 percent of pitches and making contact at a 69 percent clip.

The power plays up due to Corona hitting the ball at ideal launch angles often. There is a chance Corona could be a 20/20 type bat with everyday playing time, and the glove might allow that, considering he won a Minor League Gold Glove. 

FFG: Power/Speed OF

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: .260/.330/20 HR/20 SB

Variance: High

Buy/Sell: Buy In Deep Leagues

10. Spencer Arrighetti, RHP, 23, 6’2”/186

Arrighetti enjoyed a massive breakout from May through August during the 2023 season, in which he posted a 2.71 ERA across 76 innings with 99 strikeouts. His first four starts of the season led to an 11.05 ERA across 14 innings. But pitching in two hitter-friendly environments in the Texas League(AA) and the Pacific Coast League(AAA), inconsistencies should be expected from pitchers.

Leading with a four-seam fastball that sits 92-93, Arrighetti generates nearly 15 inches of IVB with nine inches of horizontal movement. The pitch comes in from a very low VAA of -4.46. He uses the slider the most of any secondary pitch, sitting around 80 mph with nearly 10 inches of sweeping action. His changeup is his most used secondary against lefties, showing decent ride and fade away from lefties, sitting near 86 mph. Arrighetti mixes in an upper-70s curveball that can miss bats, but is not used often.

Arrighetti has strong enough command to be a starter long-term, even if the strike right is slightly below average. The stuff grades out fine, but plays well off each other, helping Arrighetti get outs consistently.

FFG: Backend SP

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: 150 IP/4.00 ERA/150 K

Variance: High

Buy/Sell: Buy

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