Hitting Leaderboards- Explained
Crosby Spencer is back with the most in-depth hitting leaderboard with expected values and a ton of player raters for hitters.
When looking at this leaderboard it is less overwhelming than the pitching leaderboard, but it contains it still has a lot of new terminology. I created this sheet, and I have been using it for about six years now I even need the color coding and the ability to sort by categories to make full use of it. As I stated in the pitcher leaderboard article, this offseason, the Dynasty Dugout will be putting together a leaderboard that is sortable and updated throughout the season. But, for now, I wanted to allow the Dynasty Dugout community to see this leaderboard that I have personally found to be incredibly useful in mathematically spotting potentially undervalued and overvalued players.
On October 18, 2023, The Dynasty Dugout posted an article titled “A New Way of Looking at Expected Stats + Leaderboard,” where I explained the importance of using spray charts to accurately produce expected stats, which can be found:
Essentially, I take the outcomes of each batted ball event that occurred during a relevant timeframe and the applicable situations to generate expected stats. The timeframe here is the 2022* & 2023 seasons, and the applicable situations include the batter’s handedness, exit velocities, launch angles, the batted ball hit locations, and the player’s Schedule Factors. My Schedule Factors are an amalgamation of my Park Factors by the percentage of games that each player’s team plays in each park. What differs with the hitting process as compared to the pitching process is that the player’s Sprint Speed is also factored in. In the next couple of days, The Dynasty Dugout published my research article on the impacts of Sprint Speed on hitting here:
Once all the aforementioned factors and data sets are known, I then run each individual player’s events over the 2022 and 2023 seasons through their current team’s Schedule Factors to generate their expected stats. This is particularly valuable for players who have changed teams, as we can see two seasons worth (Or more, if desired) of expected outcomes in their current team’s Schedule Factor environment. Both the hitter and pitcher leaderboards will be updated as needed during the free-agent signing period so we can see the impacts of the player’s new playing environment.
*The 2022 batted ball events are modified to mirror the restricted shifting environment of 2023, and the Stolen Base numbers are also modified to reflect the player’s tendencies with the new stolen base environment.
The SGP Values
My SGP values differ from traditional SGP values as I use the average player’s value at each position instead of the leaguewide replacement level player’s value. This allows the SGP values to be 1. Include position scarcity, and 2. It eliminates the disadvantage of pitchers having two ratio categories that unfairly reduce their values when compared to hitters. My process allows for player values to be fairly compared across positions and across hitting and pitching. This sheet is based on a twelve-team, five-by-five league.
The Color Coding
I use color coding to quickly spot areas of excellence, concern, and possible areas of further investigation. Not all categories use the full spectrum of color coding (I won’t bore you with the reasoning), but there is a tab on the sheet that explains the color meanings. The actual stat categories are in black, and the expected stat categories are in blue.
The Column Guide- Values
ATV= Actual Total Value.
pATV= Values are prorated to 650 plate appearances, or more, if the player averaged more than 650 plate appearances over the past two seasons. Players who are used in a platoon role are limited to a maximum of 565 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers and a maximum of 234 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers. 565 plate appearances are the most that a left-handed hitter could have had versus right-handed pitchers over the past two seasons, and 234 plate appearances are the most that a right-handed hitter could have had versus left-handed pitchers.
xTV= Expected Total Value
pxTV=Expected Values are prorated as described previously.
This leaderboard is like having four-player raters that also incorporates position scarcity. The typical player rater just has the total value of the hitter if they were a utility player/DH. This leaderboard allows the user to see the player’s actual values, their prorated actual values, their expected values, and their prorated expected values at each position.
The Leaderboard is Attached Below for DD Subs
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