Detroit Tigers Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

Discover sleepers and breakouts from the Detroit Tigers for dynasty fantasy baseball both on the MLB and prospect side.

Guest Post By: Ryan Epperson of The Dynasty Guru(@ppenayr on X)

With dynasty season ramping up, it is time to talk about some sleepers, breakouts, and busts for each team. You can find our rankings and reports to see how we at the Dynasty Dugout value players for your dynasty leagues, but I also feel like it’s helpful to truly identify whether I believe a player can be a breakout or not. Here is where we call our shots on players, I think, require a call to action in dynasty, whether it be to buy or sell that player.

Detroit Tigers Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

MLB Sleeper: Parker Meadows, OF

It was a no-brainer to me to have Meadows as the MLB sleeper. Perpetually underrated, Meadows made the leap to the major leagues from Triple-A last year after having a modestly successful campaign at Toledo.  Through a little over 500 plate appearances at Triple-A, Meadows went .256/.337/.474 with 19 home runs and 19 stolen bases.

Most public projections have Meadows hitting around .230 with low teens stolen bases and home runs. I think all of them are low on what Meadows can bring to the table this year, and beyond. He posted an above-average zone contact rate at both Triple-A and the Majors last year while having a 90th-percentile exit velocity of 105. Paired with plus-plus speed he has all the makings of a steady contributor that routinely posts 20-20 seasons.

He should get the majority of starts in center field where his defense will anchor his playing time, and his speed and ability to take a walk will keep him hitting at the top of a sneaky-good Tigers lineup.

MLB Breakout: Sawyer Gipson-Long, RHP

There`s a bit of a logjam currently in the Tigers rotation, but I think SGL can break through and emerge as one of the starting five in short order, if not outright out of Spring Training. Acquired in a trade with the Twins in August of 2022, Gipson-Long took a huge leap forward in his development with a full offseason under the guidance of the Tigers development team.

His fastball sits around 93 miles per hour but plays up thanks to a 99th percentile extension. Along with the four seams, Gipson-Long features a plus slider and a plus changeup that he throws for strikes more than 60 percent of the time with a swinging strike rate at Triple-A of 22 percent and 26 percent, respectively. When called up to Detroit, he relied heavily on that slider and change-up combo, throwing them 55 percent of the time and living primarily down in the zone with them to great effect.

If Gipson-Long sticks in the rotation, he will have to rely on his fastball more, but he struggles to locate it well. It`s often in the zone, but he tends to live in the middle.

At 26 years old, there may not be much projection left, but if he can command the fastball just a touch better, you`re looking at a starting pitcher with three potential plus pitches in a great ballpark. I don`t buy for a second that he can`t beat out some of the projected starters in front of him, and I am trying to grab him on the cheap wherever I can this offseason.

MLB Bust: Tarik Skubal, LHP

It pains me to write this because I believe Skubal is a very good pitcher, bordering on elite. So, let`s not call this a “bust” so to speak, but more of a “resetting of expectations,” as I think the fantasy community misvalued him just a tad after his electric 80-inning sample last summer.

There`s no denying that Skubal went scorched earth on the competition last year, carrying a 28.4% strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 2.77 SIERA into the offseason. But when taking a closer look at his competition, he faced some of the weakest offensive teams in the league; the Royals, Athletics, Angels, and the White Sox just to name a few. This alone isn`t a reason to assume a regression from Skubal, after all, he will be facing these same teams again. But, he will face more and potentially better teams the more innings he throws.

This leads me to my next point about his innings, Skubal has never thrown more than 150 innings in a single season. The biggest predictor of a player’s health is past injury, and Skubal has had his fair share of them. His fastball velocity also wains as the season progresses, like most pitchers, and becomes eminently more hittable when it sits at 94mph compared to the 96mph he was sitting at last season.

The good news for Skubal is that he has increased his change-up usage from 14% in 2022 to 25% last year, and the pitch is a true weapon that has more than 33 inches of drop. It induced whiffs an astonishing 50% of the time last season and is his put-away pitch, striking batters out on it over 31%.  In previous seasons, he relied more on his tight gyro slider, but to preserve his arm, perhaps he has decided to throw it less often.

It is a balancing act on when to try to acquire a pitcher, or when it`s time to get off the train and trade him at his peak. In Skubal`s case, his stock may never be higher as he`s routinely ranked in the top seven or eight starting pitchers for dynasty right now. If he has another injury-riddled season or a step back to where his true talent lies, the chance to trade him for a haul will disappear.

Prospect Sleeper: Max Anderson, 2B

If there was a factory for power over hit-tool infield prospects that can`t field their position, the Tigers would be considered the Amazon of MLB. Maxwell launched 21 homers for Nebraska in 269 plate appearances while batting .414/.461/.771. That line propelled him into the second round of the last year`s draft where the Tigers selected him.

He sits low in his batting stance and uses his lower half well to generate above-average power. He`ll need to work on his load in professional ball, as his hands can get loopy at times, and he will get eaten up by fastballs inside until he has corrected that.

After being drafted, Max was sent to Single-A Lakeland, where he had a respectable .790 OPS and demonstrated his ability to take a walk with an 8.3% walk rate. The bat will have to carry Anderson, as he has no range at second base, although he can make the routine plays there, a Dan Uggla type, if you will.

He`ll most likely open up the year in High-A and could take on the career arc of Jace Jung so far. The Tigers are showing an ability to develop these types of hitters, and although he`ll have an uphill battle to become relevant, he`s a name you should be checking up on throughout the year.

Prospect Breakout: Ty Madden, RHP

Aside from Jackson Jobe, Madden is the one Tigers pitching prospect I`m most excited about, and one I have seen the most in person as he spent all of last season in Double-A where I`m able to get out to about 20 games a season there.

Madden is your prototypical big Texas righty who stands a tall 6’3” and has a frame you can dream of handling 180 innings a year. He struggled with free passes last season, where he saw his walk rate creep up to 10.2%, but the Tigers have been adjusting his arm slot and shoulder tilt going to the plate and attribute some of the problems to learning to repeat the mechanics.

He offers a four-seam fastball that sits 96-98mph through his starts, with a little tail to the action but not much else. He`s not afraid to throw it high and into right-handers and induces a lot of swing-and-miss when he lives there. Against righties, Madden pairs the fastball with a plus gyro slider that sits around 86mph that he commands well. He`s been developing a cutter as a professional to combat lefties but will also spin a decent curveball and change up to both sides of the plate.

As I mentioned with Gipson-Long, the Tigers currently have a glut of starting pitching between new additions in Maeda and Flaherty along with old friends Casey Mize and Matt Manning that Madden will have to fight against for a shot in the rotation. AJ Hinch has come out recently, stating that Madden will not make the team out of Spring Training, which isn`t a surprise, but he should be on the shortlist if needed. Madden ultimately has an SP3 ceiling for fantasy I believe, someone that will induce enough strikeouts and a home park that will suppress some mistakes, but ultimately will run into trouble with some walks while throwing 180 innings a year. A Mitch Keller comp comes to mind when I think of Madden`s potential.