Cincinnati Reds Top Prospects 2024

Cincinnati Reds Top Prospects from Chris Clegg, including Noelvi Marte, Rhett Lowder, Connor Phillips, Chase Petty, and Ricardo Cabrera.

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Welcome to our team prospect rankings. Over the next two months, I will be pumping out team top 30 prospect rankings and evaluations for dynasty baseball. These reports are generated from live looks, film study, and advanced data analysis to bring you in-depth fantasy scouting reports on every player you need to know, with today’s being the Cincinnati Reds Top Prospects.

Not all 30 players in each writeup will be dynasty relevant, but many will, and if you play in a deep league, certainly most of the names will be worth knowing.

You can check out our previous Top Prospect Rankings:

Atlanta, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Washington, Chicago, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh

Each player has a detailed write-up on each. The top 10 rankings and writeups are free for all, but the rest of the top prospects are for paid subs. Get an edge in your dynasty leagues and get in on some of these players first! Let’s get to it, our Reds Top Prospect list.

Glossary:

FFG = Future Fantasy Grade - essentially, what is the likely long-term outcome for the prospect? This is always going to be more conservative. Handing out ace tags is not something I like to do. So this is a realistic outcome.

90th Peak = If the player hits their best-case outcome, what does it look like?

Variance = How risky is this player’s profile, and how likely are they to hit their likely outcome? Low variance is good; high means more risky.

1. Noelvi Marte, 3B, 22, 6’0”/216

After a strong performance across Double-A and Triple-A in 2023 in which Marte slashed .279/.358/.454 with 11 home runs and 35 extra-base hits in 99 games, he earned a call to Cincinnati, where he had an impressive showing in 35 games. Across 123 MLB plate appearances, Marte slashed .316/.366/.456 with three home runs and seven doubles.

Marte originally signed with the Seattle Mariners in 2018 before being the centerpiece of the trade that sent Luis Castillo to Seattle. Despite filling out the frame quite well and adding a ton of muscle mass, Marte has sustained his ability to play shortstop before settling in the hot corner in the majors. 

There is massive raw power in the profile as Marte has explosive bat speed and strong torque from his frame. Both the power and the bat speed come easy, and it showed in the underlying data as Marte posted a 106 mph 90th percentile exit velocity in the Minors before turning around and posting an average exit velocity north of 91 in the Majors. Both these marks put the power firmly plus.

With the kind of slugger that Marte is, you might expect aggressiveness and swing-and-miss in the profile. Marte actually is fairly selective with his pitches and posts chase rates near league average, while making contact in the zone at a solid rate, posting an 86 percent clip in the minors and 83 percent in the majors. 

To fully tap into his power, Marte will need to lift the ball more often, posting high ground ball rates and surprisingly low barrel rates despite the high amount of hard-hit balls. But given the skillset, Marte could be a consistent 30-home run with respectable batting averages, especially given the nature of Great American Ballpark.

FFG: Power Hitting 3B

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: .275/.350 OBP/28 HR/10 SB

Variance: Medium

Buy/Sell: Buy

2. Rhett Lowder, RHP, 21, 6’2”/200

Lowder fits the mold of the many talented arms that have come out of Wake Forest over the years. He has an extremely high floor, and despite not being as flashy as some of the other arms in the 2023 draft class he is an excellent arm.

His fastball sits around 93-94 mph, averaging 17 inches of armside run in 2023, and he locates it well in the zone. Not only does Lowder command his fastball well, but he also gets a ton of strikes with his slider and changeup. Lowder’s slider sits in the mid-80s, averaging nearly 2800 rpm of spin in what is more of a traditional slider shape. 

Like many Wake Forest arms, Lowder’s changeup is his best pitch, as it tunnels well with his fastball and dives off the map. Sitting between 86 and 87 mph on the regular with 10 inches of IVB separating it from the fastball while also averaging 17 inches of arm side movement like the fastball. 

Lowder is a pitchability arm with excellent command throwing a ton of strikes. If you want a safer arm in dynasty, Lowder is a solid choice, especially landing in Cincinnati, where you can expect him to be pushed quickly. I would not worry too much about the poor pitching park, as Lowder keeps the ball in the park well when he is not missing bats.

FFG: High-Floor SP2-3

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: 180 IP/3.40 ERA/190 K

Variance: Low

Buy/Sell: Buy

3. Chase Petty, RHP, 20, 6’1”/190

Petty flew up draft boards in 2021 after displaying a high-end fastball that would touch triple digits with a nice slider to pair with it. The Twins drafted Petty 26th overall but ultimately traded him to Cincinnati. 

Petty’s fastball now sits in the low-to-mid 90s, but not due to injury or anything of that nature. Petty now throws from a completely different release height and arm slot, creating more running life in his sinker, and his command is exceptionally better than it was as a prep. 

His slider sometimes plays more like a cutter, emulating that movement profile and sitting 88-89 mph. It sits in the same velocity band as the changeup, but Petty can get 30 inches of separation between the two pitches, creating challenges for hitters to pick up. The changeup is more used against lefties than righties. 

There is no denying the talent level or the stuff with Petty, but there are durability concerns, and the fact the Reds have babied him leaves questions on whether he can handle a starter’s workload longterm. 2024 should be a season in which the Reds let the reigns off a bit and see what Petty can do with a bigger workload. The upside is undeniable. 

FFG: SP3-4

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: 150 IP/3.50 ERA/160 K

Variance: Medium

Buy/Sell: Buy

4. Connor Phillips, RHP, 22, 6’2”/210

Phillips has big stuff, arguably the best in the Reds system, but has been held back by inconsistent command throughout his career. When he fails to throw strikes consistently, Phillips does not allow his stuff to play up due to the fact that sometimes he is not close to the zone.

He has an athletic delivery and a big fastball that sits 96-97 on average with a nice life up in the zone. He relies heavily on it, throwing it over 60 percent of the time between the Minors and Majors in 2023; when he is locating it well, he can get away with throwing it that often and blows it by hitters.

Phillips’s sweeper is a plus pitch as well, showing nice depth and averaging nearly 13 inches of horizontal movement while sitting in the mid-80s. It is by far his biggest swing-and-miss pitch, but the low strike percentage does limit him when he fails to miss bats.

The curveball is used nearly as much as Phillips’s sweeper, as distinct pitch in the fact that it has a 12-6 shape, averaging over 50 inches of downward action while sitting in a similar velocity band to the slider. 

He does have a changeup but does not use it often, and when he does, it shows nice fading action, sitting in the mid-to-upper 80s.

Phillips should vie for a rotation spot out of SpringTraining in 2024 and will have every chance to stick as a starting pitcher. But if the command fails, Phillips's stuff could play up in the back end of a bullpen. 

FFG: SP4/Back-End Bullpen

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: 140 IP/3.75 ERA/160 K

Variance: High

Buy/Sell: Sell/Hold

5. Ricardo Cabrera, SS, 19, 5’11”/180

Cabrera signed with the Reds in January 2022 for $2.7 million, the third-highest bonus of any player, only trailing Roderick Arias and Cristhian Vaquero. Lauded for being one of the best pure hitters in the class, Cabrera struggled in his first stint in the DSL as a 17-year-old, hitting just .253 with a 23 percent strikeout rate. 

In 2023, Cabrera made a massive jump at the Complex level and even into Single-A, posting a .346/.475/.531 slash line with a strikeout rate below 20 percent to pair with a 13 percent walk rate. The power even came along as Cabrera hit five home runs and had 16 extra-base hits across 202 plate appearances. 

Cabrera has slightly evolved his stance and approach since signing, now standing more open with a simple toe tap before exploding through the zone. There is plenty of bat speed here from a solid frame, giving more confidence about Cabrera’s future power output. 

Cabrera is a terror on the base paths, successful on 24 of 26 attempts this year in just 44 games. The speed may end up closer to average long term, but the instincts on the base paths are excellent.

Cabrera might slide over to second base long-term, which would boost his dynasty value, considering the profile. Cabrera has major breakout potential if he can get to average game power with a plus or better feel to hit.

FFG: High Hit-Tool with Speed

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: .285/.360 OBP/15 HR/30 SB

Variance: Medium

Buy/Sell: Buy 

6. Blake Dunn, OF, 25, 6’0”/215

Dunn does not get the recognition he deserves due to his age, but Dunn has consistently hit since college, and after being drafted in the 15th round of 2021, Dunn has hit as a professional, having a career .302/.423/.503 slash line. Dunn’s 2023 breakout was largely due to the fact he could play a full season, playing more games in 2023 than he had in the previous three seasons combined. 

When you look at the contact skills, Dunn shows above-average or better contact rates while being selective at the plate. Making contact on 77 percent of pitches is a solid number, especially considering Dunn picks up spin well and picks his spots appropriately. 

Dunn shows plus clock times and is coming off a 54 stolen base season, while only being caught seven times. While he hit 23 home runs this year, the exit velocities suggest Dunn may have closer to average power. 

While it was an impressive season, Dunn profiles as more of a 15-18 home run bat that can steal 25 bases with everyday playing time, still a very useful player.

FFG: High-OBP OF with Power and Speed

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: .270/.370 OBP/18 HR/25 SB

Variance: Low

Buy/Sell: Buy

7. Edwin Arroyo, SS, 20, 6’0”/175

Originally selected in the second round of the 2021 draft, Arroyo accompanied Noelvi Marte in the trade that sent Luis Castillo to Seattle. While profiling as a glove-first shortstop, Arroyo has seen his bat develop tremendously over the last two seasons.

After an impressive 2022 season, Arroyo followed it up, spending most of the season in High-A, but saw time in Double-A to end the year, slashing .252/.324/.433 with 13 home runs and 52 extra-base hits.

Arroyo is fairly aggressive at the plate, swinging at over 50 percent of pitches and chasing more than 30 percent of pitches out of the zone. The switch hitter does show consistency on both sides of the plate, though, posting similar contact rates and slash lines from both sides of the plate. 

The power numbers and exit velocities suggest future below-average power, but due to Arroyo’s explosive lower half, he gets into a bit more power than you might expect. The smaller stature and swings from both sides remind me a bit of how Ozzie Albies uses his lower body to get into more power. 

The long-term appeal for fantasy remains to be seen, but Arroyo does exhibit good speed and stolen base instincts, swiping 29 bags last season in 36 tries. The power will likely sit near 15 home runs most of his career with contact rates that could lead to .260-.270 batting averages.

FFG: Top-10 2B

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: .265/.340 OBP/15 HR/30 SB

Variance: Medium

Buy/Sell: Sell/Hold

8. Cam Collier, 3B, 19, 6’2”/210

Collier has always been young for where he has been playing, getting his GED early and enrolling at Chipola JuCo at 17 years old, where he dominated much older players. Many saw Collier as a top-10 talent in the 2022 draft, but he fell into the Reds’ lap at 18 overall.

Spending the entire season as an 18-year-old in 2023, Collier showed flashes of the player many thought he could be, but he still left plenty to be desired. Across 461 plate appearances, Collier posted a .246/.349/.356 slash with six home runs and 29 extra-base hits.

The underlying data showed a mixed bag of results as Collier showed plenty of chase out of the zone, running a 32 percent chase rate. Despite the higher chase rate, Collier did exhibit the ability to make plenty of contact on pitches in the zone, posting a zone contact rate north of 87 percent and an overall contact rate of 77 percent. 

The power metrics all looked good as well, especially considering his age. Collier posted an average exit velocity near 90 mph and a 90th percentile exit velocity above 105 mph. The issue is that Collier put the ball on the ground 53 percent of the time, not allowing the hard-hit balls to do any damage. 

Better days should be ahead for Collier in 2024, but he will need to get to more loft for the skillset to play up. As you can see from the underlying data, the talent is there for Collier to put it all together to be a high-end prospect.

FFG: Power Hitting 3B

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: .260/.350 OBP/25 HR/5 SB

Variance: High

Buy/Sell: Hold/Buy

9. Ty Floyd, RHP, 22, 6’2”/200

Floyd had a solid year at LSU in 2023, but raised his stock significantly with his postseason performances against Wake Forest, where he struck out ten, and then his eight-inning outing against Florida in the finals, in which he struck out 17 batters. 

Floyd has a fast arm that allows his fastball to sit 95 mph consistently with 20 inches of IVB and 10 inches of run, making the pitch quite tough for hitters up in the zone. He throws it quite often, 70 percent of the time, which will need to decrease in favor of his secondary pitches for long-term sustainability as a starting pitcher. 

His secondary pitches grade out exceptionally well, despite being thrown in smaller samples, as his slider and changeup were both used at similar rates. The slider sat 80-82 mph last season with an average of nearly ten inches of sweep.

The changeup sat near 84 mph with nearly 20 inches of horizontal movement and over 10 inches of IVB separation from Floyd’s four-seam fastball, making it a deadly pitch if he continues to develop it and throw it more often.

Floyd rounds out his arsenal with a lesser-used curve sitting in the upper-70s but having a ton of downward movement and nearly ten inches of sweep as well.

Floyd has the chance to develop into a high-end starting pitch, and the upside here is possibly higher than Rhett Lowder's, but if Floyd struggles to develop and land his secondaries for strikes, he could find himself in the bullpen.

FFG: SP2-3

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: 150 IP/3.40 ERA/175 K

Variance: High

Buy/Sell: Buy

10. Carlos Jorge, 2B, 20, 5’10”/160

Jorge signed with Reds in 2021 for $495k and had strong showings in the Dominican Summer League and then in 2022 in the Florida Complex League. Last season, Jorge got into more power than people expected, hitting seven home runs and having 16 extra-base hits in 154 plate appearances. The underlying data suggested that Jorge overperformed his expected home run output, and Jorge followed it up in 2023 by hitting 12 home runs across 450 plate appearances in 2023.

The exit velocities are well below average, posting an average exit velocity south of 85 mph and a 90th percentile exit velocity below 100 mph. The exit velocities alone suggest 20-30 grade power, but Jorge has gotten to home runs by hitting the ball at ideal angles and perfected pulling the ball to the corners.

Jorge is hyper aggressive on pitches in the zone, swinging at over 70 percent of pitches in the zone while chasing around a league average rate of 31 percent. Jorge posted a contact rate just south of 80 percent on pitches in the zone. 

Jorge does show good speed and instincts on the base paths, stealing 32 bases in 2023 while only being caught nine times. The power is below average, and his hit tool and contact rates check in around an average clip. The hitting profile could play up at second base, where Jorge’s long-term home will be.

FFG: Speedy MI with Sneaky Pop

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: .270/.350/15 HR/30 SB

Variance: High

Buy/Sell: Sell/Hold

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