Chris Clegg's 2023 Pitching Prospect Obsessions
Chris looks at pitching prospects he wants to get everywhere before 2023.
Knowing the right time to buy and sell prospects in a dynasty league is critical. Very seldom is a prospect off limits for me in trade. Generally, my goal is to acquire prospects on the cheap, let them build value, then flip them for win-now pieces. That is easier said than done. But, I view prospects in dynasty as playing the stock market. Buy in early, buy low, and sell high. Those are winning strategies in dynasty leagues.
Today we will dive in on eight pitching prospects I want on all my teams in 2023.
Brandon Pfaadt, RHP, ARI
Brandon Pfaadt’s name being first on the list should surprise no one if you have followed my work for a while. I have been riding the Brandon Pfaadt hype train for some time now. By the way, his last name is pronounced: “fought.” I hear it said several different ways but he confirmed it is “fought."
Anyways, Pfaadt made a huge rise up rankings this offseason, and for good reasons. Between Double and Triple-A, he posted a 3.83 ERA and had the most strikeouts in the minors, with 218. Pfaadt is an innings eater who throws a ton of strikes.
If you want a deep dive into Brandon Pfaadt, check out my article here.
Bobby Miller, RHP, LAD
It feels like Bobby Miller is being a bit slept on in fantasy circles. I’m guilty of it myself. While his surface numbers haven’t popped, and you could say his 2022 was slightly disappointing, I’m all on Miller. It is important to remember he spent the season pitching in the Texas League(AA) and the Pacific Coast League(AAA). Those were the two most hitter-friendly environments in the Minors.
Bobby Miller is your guy if you like an elite fastball and slider combo. Standing at 6’5/220, he has a ton of physicality and explosiveness on the mound bringing the heat with a four-seam fastball that consistently sits around 98 mph but can touch 101. He has shown improved command at the top of the zone with it and easily blows it by hitters. Miller mixes in a 97 mph sinker that keeps hitters honest. The slider ranges anywhere from the upper 80s to 90 mph with excellent sweeping actions, but he does have a variation that is more of a cutter. Miller also features a plus changeup. His stuff is that of a top-of-the-rotation arm when you also factor in his physicality.
Jake Eder, LHP, MIA
I hope my buddy Drew Wheeler is reading this, sharing my love for Jake Eder. Eder was selected by the Marlins in the fourth round of the 2020 MLB Draft and got an aggressive Double-A assignment when he debuted in 2021. He handled it well, posting a 1.77 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP across 71.1 innings. He also had a 34.5 percent strikeout rate. Unfortunately, Eder did go down with Tommy John Surgery.
Eder features a plus fastball and slider combo. His fastball gets a great ride at the top of the zone, and his slider plays exceptionally well off of it. Eder features a low-80s changeup which could end up being a solid pitch with more refinement. If he returns to form in 2023 following Tommy John, he could push his way into a really talented Marlins rotation.
Jackson Jobe, RHP, DET
Jackson Jobe went from all the craze in 2021, when he was selected third overall, to falling off radars after just one full season. In high school, Jobe was a two-way player but was primarily a shortstop until later in his high school career, when he began to focus more on pitching. Jobe emerged as one of the top arms in the 2021 class thanks to a big fastball and an elite spinning slider.
Jobe’s fastball sits close to 95 mph but tops out in the upper 90s with excellent ride at the top of the zone. His slider is a wipeout pitch with a ton of vertical movement. If he commands it better, it has the potential to be an elite swing-and-miss pitch. His changeup is more advanced than people think. It had a whiff rate above 40% last year with good fading action.
Jobe finished the season very strong last year. His overall 3.84 ERA won’t wow you, but after the All-Star break, Jobe posted a 2.45 ERA with 38 strikeouts in 36.2 innings pitched. Buy all the Jackson Jobe this offseason.
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Dax Fulton, LHP, MIA
The Marlins developing another talented arm? Surprise, surprise. Like Jobe, Fulton’s numbers do not jump off the page, but his season was very strong. He posted a 3.80 ERA in 118.1 innings with 150 strikeouts and 42 walks.
Fulton was a second-round prep arm in the 2020 MLB draft. He had Tommy John surgery in his draft year, but that did not deter the Marlins from selecting him. Fulton was solid in his return in 2021, but took it to the next level last season.
His fastball has increased velocity by several miles per hour, and he mixes in both a four and two-seamer. His curveball is a thing of beauty, and he can land it at the top of the zone for strikes and make it dive out of the zone to get chase. His changeup improved but he still has work to do.
Over Fulton’s final nine starts in 2022, he posted a 2.06 ERA in 52.1 innings with 64 strikeouts. That included a trip to Double-A, where he posted a 2.57 ERA over four starts.
Bubba Chandler, RHP, PIT
Bubba Chandler is an athlete, and a dang good one at that. As a prep player, he excelled as a three-sport athlete and was committed to Clemson to play both football and baseball. The Pirates loved him enough to give him an over-slot deal in the third round to get him to sign. If you are looking for a breakout in the Pirates org, Chandler is your guy.
Chandler is a two-way player, but has shown to be a much better pitcher with a potential 70-grade fastball that sits close to 96 mph consistently. His slider is plus, and his changeup has shown to get plenty of swings and misses. The walks are concerning, but Chandler has only focused on baseball for a short time. If he does the transition to pitcher only, he could move up rankings due to his already elite stuff.
AJ Smith-Shawver, RHP, ATL
AJ Smith-Shawver may not be a household name yet, but don’t be surprised when he ascends rankings in 2023. You might be even more confused by looking at his stats above. Is the Braves system just that shallow? Yes, but Smith-Shawver is a legit arm.
His fastball sits upper-90s, and he locates it well at the top of the zone. Smith-Shawver’s slider is a huge swing-and-miss pitch that he is comfortable throwing to both left and right-handed batters. His third offering is a changeup that is still developing but shows nice promise with its fading action. The fastball and slider are easily plus with a chance to be 70-grade pitches. Invest in AJ Smith-Shawver now in a dynasty league.
Chase Petty, RHP, CIN
I really feel like people are sleeping on Chase Petty in the fantasy community. The former 2021 first-rounder flew up draft boards as he displayed a high-end fastball with a good feel for a slider. The Twins took him 26 overall but ultimately traded him to the Reds for Sonny Gray.
Petty threw 98 innings last year, posting a 3.48 ERA between Low and High-A. He struck out 96 batters, but his stuff is much better than the strikeout numbers suggest.
Petty has toned his fastball down a bit, and the Reds have done a good job of helping him not be as erratic with his delivery. His fastball sat in the mid-90s and reached 97, but he has better feel and command than he did in the past. His slider flashes being a plus pitch, and he added a changeup with three feet of horizontal movement differential than his slider. Look for Petty to fly up boards in 2023.
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