Boston Red Sox Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts
Discover a sleeper, breakout, and bust from the Boston Red Sox for dynasty fantasy baseball both on the MLB and prospect side.
With dynasty season ramping up, I figured it was time to talk about some sleepers, breakouts, and busts for each team. You can find my rankings and reports to see how I value players for your dynasty leagues, but I also feel like it’s helpful to truly identify whether I believe a player can be a breakout or not. Here is where I call my shots on players I think require a call to action in dynasty, whether it be to buy or sell that player.
While you are here, be sure to check out the updated Boston Red Sox top prospect list, updated with new international prospects:
Boston Red Sox Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, Busts
MLB Sleeper: Vaughn Grissom, 2B, 24, 6’2”/210
The Grissom for Chris Sale trade last offseason looks pretty lopsided at this point, but Grissom still has plenty of time to prove himself. Grissom debuted in Atlanta at 21 years old when Ozzie Albies went down in 2022 and was rather impressive. In his 156 plate appearance sample, Grissom hit five home runs and stole five bases while slashing .291/.353/.440. Red Sox fans may remember Grissom’s first career, which came at Fenway Park and completely cleared the Green Monster.
A hamstring injury kept Grissom out during Spring Training and caused him to miss more than the first month of the MLB regular season. Then in May, Grissom lost 14 pounds due to an illness, which surely affected him. In June and July, the hamstring caused him to miss substantial time again. Finally, Grissom was healthy in August and September and picked things up to end the year.
In his final 21 Triple-A games before ending the year with Boston, Grissom slashed .366/.489/.549 with four home runs and more walks than strikeouts. He spent the final week in Boston, where he had two three-hit performances and slashed .333/.370/.417.
The underlying data also improved over the final two months as Grissom got healthy. He has put back on the weight he lost last year and has been working hard this offseason. He is the favorite to be the Red Sox Opening Day starter at second base. Yes, Kristian Campbell is lurking, but these two could co-exist in the lineup if both are hitting.
MLB Breakout: Brayan Bello, RHP, 25, 6’1”/195
Does Brayan Bello have what it takes to break out? Or will he continue to live in that mold of an SP4-5 type with low strikeouts? The Red Sox certainly have hoped for more at this point. They inked him to a 6-year, $55 million extension, but so far, the results have been pretty mid.
In 2024, Bello tossed 162.1 innings with a 4.49 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. Both marks are not good, and Bello struck out just 22 percent of batters while walking nine percent. But, after returning from the All-Star break, Bello posted a 3.47 ERA across 72.2 innings and had starts where he flashed the strikeout upside. There were starts where he struck out two batters, but also those where he struck out nine or even 11.
Those starts where Bello is missing bats, the slider and changeup are working and he is relying heavily on the slider. When the sinker and changeup tunnel well, it enables Bello to get more whiffs on the changeup.
The arsenal has a lot of similarities to Luis Castillo. Honestly, he would benefit tremendously from a curveball or even splitter that could give him a pitch with north-south movement, rather than the east-west profile that he currently has.
There is a possibility that Bello pitches to a mid-3s ERA and strikes out 25 percent of batters, and if he does, I would call it the breakout we have been waiting for.
MLB Bust: Trevor Story, SS, 32, 6’2”/209
Can Story stay healthy? That is the biggest question we need answered. Entering his fourth season with the Red Sox, Story has a combined 670 plate appearances with the team and just 274 between the last two seasons.
The quality of contact metrics have drastically declined for the last three seasons, and Story has struck out at a 31.3 percent clip since being a member of Boston. Story returned in September last year and got 72 plate appearances to close out the year. The results were solid as Story slashed .270/.361/.429 with two home runs and five stolen bases.
Now 32 years old, can Story handle the workload of being the everyday shortstop? The glove is solid, but what are we expecting at the plate? There are just too many question marks surrounding Story for me to draft or roster him in a fantasy league as my shortstop. Could he have a 20 home run/20 stolen base season? Yes. But could also give less than 250 plate appearances? That is also a real possibility.
Boston Red Sox Prospect Sleeper: David Sandlin, RHP, 24, 6’4”/215, AA
If you look at the surface ERA, you might not see the second-best pitching prospect in the Red Sox system. The good news is that Sandlin is so much more than the 5.34 ERA he posted this year in 57.1 innings between High-A and Double-A. Injuries have been a concern as he missed time this year with a forearm injury and an oblique injury in 2023, but the pure stuff is incredible.
The arsenal and pitch sequencing improved all season, and Sandlin made notable improvements with slight grip tweaks to his pitches. He showed a true five-pitch mix with five separate velocity bands.
The fastball sits between 96-97 mph, but has topped out at 100. The pitch gets above-average IVB, and when he locates it up, he misses plenty of bats. The command of the pitch does need to improve as Sandlin did show to be home run prone at times, especially when he left the fastball over the middle.
Sandlin shows two variations of his slider, with a sweeper in the mid-80s and a gyro-shape near 90 mph. He also mixed a harder, shorter cutter at 89-90 mph. The gyro plays like a cutter at times, with some pitches having more carry and short horizontal movement. The sweeper regularly gets 15 inches of horizontal movement.
The splitter reaches 94 and sits between 90-92 depending on the outing. A 94 mph splitter that resembled a splitter/splinker of one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, Paul Skenes. Sandlin rounded out the arsenal with an 80 mph curve, which is used more as a pitch to change hitter’s eye levels and get them off the fastball.
Durability is still a major issue. The most innings he has thrown in a season is 97, which he did in 2022 while still at Oklahoma. Sandlin has a starter's frame with a big upper half and broad shoulders. His arsenal has the potential to be one of a high-end starting pitcher. He is very good; we just need to see consistency and the ability to throw innings in 2025.
Boston Red Sox Prospect Breakout: Nelly Taylor, OF, 22, 6’0”/180, A+
Selected in the 11th round of the 2023 MLB Draft, Taylor was an impressive athlete in his first pro season. The surface numbers don’t paint a great image of Taylor as he slashed .233/.337/.376 with eight home runs and 38 extra-base hits in 111 games. Getting a ten-game cup of coffee in Greenville to end the year, Taylor checked many boxes in my live looks at him.
Taylor is a good athlete, standing at 6’0”/180, and shows impressive speed in the field and on the base paths. The one bolt I got from home-to-first, Taylor graded out as a plus runner. Minor League stolen base numbers can sometimes be deceptive, but not here. His 33 are a product of good speed. While he was often caught early on, the reads got better, and Taylor was only caught five times in his last 30 stolen bases attempts.
I saw Taylor blast his eighth and final home run of the year, a majestic moonshot that traveled 406 feet and left the bat with an exit velocity north of 108 mph. While eight home runs may not jump off the page, there is juice in the profile. The underlying data shows Taylor can hit the ball hard as he ran a 90th percentile exit velocity near 105 mph, a pretty impressive mark.
Taylor is a selective hitter, swinging at 40 percent of pitches he saw and making contact at a 71 percent clip. The contact rates are average, and Taylor struck out in 25 percent of plate appearances. Given the strong centerfield that Taylor plays, you can live with the strikeouts when you also factor in his power and speed.
Taylor's swing is smooth, and his athleticism is impressive. He looks like someone who could breakout in 2025. He likely begins the year in High-A but could push to Double-A very quickly.
Here's to hoping I'm Bello! 🤞