Beck's Minor League Threecap: 9/1/2024

Wake me up when September ends

I love a Sunday that feels like Saturday. I have tomorrow off, a total blessing while planning for our ceremony and honeymoon. I’m sitting at a combination coffee shop and thrift store just a few blocks from my house enjoying the sun as I write this. Life is good!

Walcott is More Than a Town in Iowa.

Ryan Clifford (NYM) had one of his best nights of the year on Saturday by going 4-for-5 with a double. I last wrote about him two weeks ago and cited his tremendous struggles to open the year at High-A (.216/.412/.304 with a 31.6% K-rate over 31 games) as well as the heater he’s been on at Double-A. Since then I’ve read a little bit about visibility concerns in Brooklyn, particularly for left-handed hitters, and the three-year minor league park factors at Baseball America support the anecdotal evidence. Brooklyn plays as a roughly average ballpark for righties but as the worst park at the level for lefties across a number of key offensive markers (wOBA, OBP, home runs). Surface stats across minor league baseball are ripe with nuance that has to be accounted for in player eval, and I think I’m giving Clifford a pass for the early skid. Even with the dreadful line he registered a 124 wRC+, after all.

There might not be a trickier profile to pin down than Sebastian Walcott (TEX). He’s spent the entire year in High-A as an 18-year-old and more than held his own; in fact, Walcott’s 123 wRC+ is the best mark at the level in an age-18 season since at least 2006 (per @EliBenPorat on X). That’s an extraordinarily good sign for his long-term prognosis but on the other hand there’s the hit tool issue. He struggles mightily with same-side spin. Considering that present defect and his age-to-level, a 26.2% strikeout rate is rather encouraging. He has very loud tools and a fair bit of projection left in his 6-foot-4 frame and closing that gap would make him a top-5 prospect in the sport. He went 3-for-6 with a trio of doubles on Saturday.

The Chace Is On.

I wrote about this phenomenon yesterday, but I love when teams trade for a player and they immediately go on a run, whether that’s influenced by a distinct tweak or not. The Phillies landed Moises Chace (PHI) at the deadline in exchange for Gregory Soto and he’s been nails since they assigned him to Reading. He notched his third start there on Saturday and punched out 13 batters over 6.0 near-perfect innings, bringing his total to 15.2 innings with 29 strikeouts (51.8% strikeout rate) and a 1.72 ERA. I sat down to watch yesterday’s outing and came away pretty impressed – it’s hard not to when the outing is that good – but I’m still hesitant to go all-in. He’s got great stuff and has carried a 37.7% strikeout rate for the full year, but his command/control leaves something to be desired. I’m not totally buying his listed height at 6-foot-1, I’d take the under, and ultimately he looks a lot like a reliever to me. The Phillies have been pushing his pitch counts to see what it looks like as he turns a lineup over and he’s responded well, so you never know. 

I get that you have to take it easy on a guy with a health history as concerning as the one Noah Schultz (CHW) has accrued but I’d still like to see him go beyond four innings eventually. Chicago has no reason to see that through this year – he’s not going to come up and help them win – and they’ve been handling him with extreme caution. That’s the right move. He’s been sufficiently filthy with a leash on, especially since being promoted to Double-A, and owns a 1.35 ERA, 29.0% strikeout rate, and 7.5% walk rate at the level. His 6-foot-9 frame makes his two-seam fastball and slider look completely comical and it’s flummoxed lefties and righties alike. The concerns with his outlier size were that he’d have control problems (those haven’t manifested) as a result of difficulty repeating his delivery and that he might not hold up as a starter (jury is very much out). He struck out seven over 4.0 scoreless innings on Saturday.

The Ritchie Get Richer. 

This is a fun slate. Everybody pitched pretty well with the exceptions of Robby Snelling and Jackson Ferris. Let’s get Travis Sykora to High-A.

There are a handful of games on Labor Day but almost everyone is listed as TBA and the arms that are penciled in aren’t particularly compelling. I’d encourage you to enjoy the holiday without baseball. Take care!