Beck's Minor League Threecap: 8/31/2024

Getting hitched

Programming note: I get married next Friday. We’re not doing the big shindig – we’ve already shelled out for the new house and would like a year to build back up the funds necessary to throw a party, so we’ll do that next year – but I am going to be out of pocket for about a week. We’ll trot down to the courthouse, spend a night with family celebrating, and then ship off for a mini-moon. Perhaps I’ll find a way to slink out and type something up but don’t count on it. Once I’m back we’ll all be thinking about wrapping up fantasy playoffs and shifting our focus to the AFL. I can’t wait, both to be married (I’ve out-kicked my coverage) and to put a bow on this season.

M&M.

Michael Arroyo (SEA) has been quietly putting together a great campaign. It’d be easy to call him an Everett merchant – it’s a great place to hit – but he was damn near as productive in Modesto. The biggest year-over-year change has been to his surface power output which may be a happy byproduct of him growing up and filling out. He’s put 23 balls in seats through 561 plate appearances and has seen his slugging percentage jump over a hundred points. The EVs are sitting above-average (or so I’ve heard – this data is hard to come by) which would support the jump. His bat is legit. He went 3-for-5 with two home runs and a double on Friday.

Every time I publish a list I take a deep breath and relax. Once I’ve exhaled, there’s usually one big thing that I wish I would have done differently. In this particular iteration it was the order I put first base prospects in, and that includes Lazaro Montes (SEA). He’s never had exceptional contact rates, and for the most part they remain unspectacular, but Xavier Isaac’s zone contact has cratered over the last few months and I had him ahead of both Bryce Eldridge and Montes in the update. At this juncture the order should clearly start with Eldridge and I’m not certain which of the latter two I prefer at the moment. Montes has never done anything but rake and I’m reminded a bit of another exciting international player who had his own hit tool issues. There’s a lot of danger that comes with comping anybody to Elly De La Cruz (to be clear, that’s not exactly what I’m doing here) and Montes isn’t nearly the athlete – nobody is – but I’m hesitant to knock him for the hit tool until I see it fail entirely. He finished the night 4-for-5 with two home runs and a double.

Heat Meister.

One of my favorite phenomena in minor league baseball is when a team identifies something they like about a player and maximize it. For Jackson Baumeister (TBR) and the Rays it was his fastball. Aram Leighton of Just Baseball (@AramLeighton8 on Twitter) is ahead of me on this one, as usual, but since landing in Tampa (figuratively, he’s been pitching in Bowling Green) his heater has added more vert and he’s started throwing a hard cutter. The results have been even better than the Rays bargained for; he’s thrown 24.0 innings across six appearances and owns a 1.13 ERA, a 40.2% strikeout rate, and a 4.6% walk rate. He went 7.0 scoreless innings and struck out 11 on Friday.

Chase Dollander (COL) isn’t pitching in Colorado yet but he did spend a fair bit of time in Spokane and that’s no walk in the park either. He’s now in Hartford and the results are better than they were in High-A, almost as if it’s smoother sailing in the Northwest League. That’s not to take anything away from him, either. He’s been fantastic and checks a lot of the boxes I look for in a top pitching prospect: he has perhaps the best four-seam fastball of any starter in minor league baseball, he’s hefty enough to carry a starter’s workload, and he’s got a full arsenal even if frontlined by the heater and slider. The only thing keeping him from being my #3 pitching prospect behind Jobe and Painter (he checked in at #6 on the update) is his future home park. He’d probably be #1 if he were left-handed and had sea-level pastures in his future. He spun his second 10-strikeout game in a row on Friday and this time he kept his opponent off the scoreboard while doing so.

On the Hunt. 

A couple of my favorites are in this table. I’ve got a whiff reel and voiceover scouting report on KC Hunt coming on Twitter soon.

This is probably the last Sunday worth bothering to put out a viewing guide. Half of you chuckleheads won’t watch anything but football from here on out. Here’s what to watch, soak it in:

• AJ Smith-Shawver (5.29 ERA) for the Gwinnett Stripers (ATL) at 1:05 ET

• Eiberson Castellano (2.18 ERA) for the Reading Fightin Phils (PHI) at 1:05 ET

• Yordanny Monegro (2.89 ERA) for the Greenville Drive (ATL) at 2:05 ET

• Yilber Diaz (3.35 ERA) for the Reno Aces (ARI) at 3:35 ET

• Jhancarlos Lara (3.18 ERA) for the Mississippi Braves (ATL) at 5:05 ET

• Kohl Drake (4.91 ERA) for the Frisco RoughRiders (TEX) at 6:15 ET

• Alex Clemmey (4.52 ERA) for the Fredericksburg Nationals (WSH) at 6:30 ET

• Logan Evans (3.01 ERA) for the Arkansas Travelers (SEA) at 7:05 ET

• AJ Blubaugh (4.13 ERA) for the Sugar Land Space Cowboys (HOU) at 7:35 ET