Beck's Minor League Threecap: 8/25/2024
Agent Smith is superhuman indeed
I hope you had a wonderful weekend. I rounded mine out with a trip to Target Field to watch Zebby Matthews in his third MLB start and it went swimmingly, which must mean I have to attend every fifth day moving forward. I’m still tinkering with my top 100 update but I think it’ll be out early this coming week. Looking forward to all of your reactions!
Mr. Smith Don’t Miss.
Cam Smith (CHC) is proving unavoidable. I haven’t written about him all week but he had homered in five straight games entering today and just swatted a sixth as I’m writing this. He was pretty high on my draft board for the Brewers but he was scooped up before they had the opportunity. That stings a little bit, especially with the recent heater he’s been on. He posted elite underlying data while at Florida State, including a 110.2 mph 90th EV, an 89% in-zone contact rate, and a chase rate in the low 20’s. His blemishes were largely to do with angles; he put the ball on the ground more than you’d like and pulled the ball sparingly, but he may have enough raw juice to overcome an all-fields approach, at least when he gets it in the air. He’s a good target after the first handful of players off the board in FYPDs.
There’s good and there’s not good. Roderick Arias (NYY) running a 31.9% strikeout rate through nearly 500 plate appearances in Single-A is not good. Not every big money international signee can hit but this looks like a notable whiff by the Yankees’ scouting department. Arias has shown some damage potential by posting a 103.2 90th percentile EV at 19 years old, but he’s only making contact on 76.6% of pitches in the zone and is chasing out of it nearly 30% of the time. There’s still time for him to turn it around, of course, but I’m far from sold on his hit tool, I’m not enamored with his physical tools, and the track record for players that strike out as much as he has is pretty dreary. He had a great day on Saturday, though, racking up three stolen bases, three doubles, and a home run in a double-header.
Take a Chace on Me.
Moisés Chace (PHI) was dealt to Philadelphia alongside Seth Johnson in exchange for Gregory Soto just a few weeks ago. Since then Chace and Johnson have combined for 28.1 innings and eight earned runs (2.54 ERA) for Phillies affiliates while Soto has pitched 5.2 innings in an Orioles uniform and has nearly walked as many batters as he’s struck out. Chace has been particularly effective all year, especially in the punchout department, as he’s dismissed 35.7% of batters via strikeout across his 70.1 innings. The Phillies pushed him to Double-A after just two starts with Jersey Shore, effectively accelerating his ETA (to the extent that it can be given the depth of their big league rotation). My best guess is that he breaks through in a bullpen role first. He posted his best strikeout total of the year with 10 in 4.2 innings on Saturday.
Snelling Like Teen Spirit.
This is by far the worst performance the table has had all week. Part of that has to do with the insane heater minor league pitching has been on lately, but mostly these guys had some stinkers. Bishop Letson, Robby Snelling, and Adam Maier only managed one strikeout each. The lone bright spot was KC Hunt, who continues to throw well for Biloxi.
There’s no viewing guide for Monday as the only games going are the DSL Semifinals. Talk to you tomorrow!